GP 15 Jeta

kinsell wrote on 6/24/2020 5:57 AM:
On 6/23/20 9:23 AM, Turkey Vulture wrote:

Some owner?* There's only been one delivered, and he's up to his
eyeballs trying to get the thing flying.

Do tell, it was delivered unflyable??!!


To be fair, it has flown once.* It got air-freighted to the convention to suck in
new orders

With the conventions on a two year cycle, displaying the glider this year was a
very important PR event. It was useful to me to sit in it, so I got decide between
the two fuselages - ditto for other current and potential customers. The scheduled
test flight was prevented by a snow covered runway at the airport used by the
factory.

My ASH26E came with a steerable tailwheel that had never been tested for a similar
reason (it was also delivered a year later than originally expected). Stuff
happens with new models of gliders, and getting one of the first few has more
risks than later orders.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

wrote on 6/23/2020 5:48 AM:
Hi Guys,
Any news about the Gp glider out there? The 15 Jeta promise a revolution, but I cannot find much new info about It. Some owner could help?
Cheers


I'm expecting my GP15 to be at least a month delayed. Seriously interested pilots
should contact Tom Holloran, the dealer, for the latest information. The month+
lockdown in April on businesses in Poland has delayed not just the GP factory, but
interrupted production at their suppliers, too, so glider production is delayed
ever further.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

On Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 10:20:43 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
I'm expecting my GP15 to be at least a month delayed.

Huh? Say WHAT? When was delivery originally promised to you?

The following applies regardless of whether one discusses GP or other vendors.
I really do wish GP the best, might even have ordered one except I already
have too many electric-powered gliders (maybe someday I'll get it flying again,
after most recent failure in March, after repairing prior failure last fall).
Anyway...

Eric, you were an engineer, right?
When I was just a baby engineer (IIRC 1973, working in Brussels),
my boss taught me about the projected-delay curve.
Presumably you were similarly taught?

A projected-delay curve is very simple.
Y-axis is projected delay (say, expected months to completion).
X-axis is just time (say in months).
A perfectly planned project gives a line descending at 45 degrees,
so that the projected delay reaches 0 (completion) at the time originally planned.

As an engineer, I would do projected delay curves on:
- time promised til first promised customer delivery
- time promised til my delivery

Eric, you've had some training and exposure to finance, no??
So, calculate or estimate to 10%-20%:
- amount of cash taken in by company from deposits
- cost (break-even) to pay for fabrication of a glider
Now ask or find out from public financial records their approximate cash-on-hand.
Does it permit producing prepaid orders?

Eric, you were an engineer, right?
So you know things go wrong. 'cause, ya-know, "How hard can it be?" precedes...
Now, given that things go wrong, as engineers we plan for that right?
That means designing in adequate diagnostic basic indicators (blinky LEDs)
and logs, easily accessible by the customer.
Applies to all kinds of products, right?
When first Antares showed up and the logs weren't accessible,
I added a feature so customer could easily pull logs onto USB stick.
At least the logs already EXISTED, but the factory failed to make this easy.
Now, how come its not immediately determined what happened to the first GP delivery?

Again, I wish GP all the best.
But when one asks these questions, its a serious thing.
I saw first-hand when I did the OSTIV talk, pilots looking annoyed,
and not raising their hands when I asked how many had a particular problem,
when I could see many in the audience I knew had had the problem.
Guys, I'm not calling your wife ugly.
Heaven forbid, I'm not even calling your girlfriend ugly!
Brand-loyalty is one thing, but this is a bit silly.

Eric, would you care to do the above analysis and share it?
Its a serious question and NOT an attack.
Thanks,
Best Regards, Dave

PS: Tell Jan I think she's cute ;-)


* The projected-delay curve has been approximately re-invented numerous
times with trendy names like "burn-down chart"...
** Typical decently-managed projects show projected-delay curves with
more-or-less constant slope worse than 45 degrees. That tells you the
estimation process is consistently flawed by the same degree, but things
are NOT wildly out of control.
**B) Some decades ago, a buddy was working at a large aerospace co on
a large DARPA/NASA funded project. He complained to me about unrealistic
estimates, and I explained above. He then posted and regularly updated a
projected-delay graph outside his cubicle, for each major milestone,
all showing a rather depressing but flat curve. Senior management got wind
and dressed him down and demanded he remove it! Big Offense!!!
Right before project was cancelled for repeated budget overruns.
*** When projected-delay line flattens or increases, you are truly F'd.

Eric,
Why do you care what these guys think anyway?

It was your decision to make the investment and you sound like you knew the potential risks going in.

So who gives a ****e what anyone of the above detractors think?

In the end only time will tell if you made a good decision. You've indicated based on your experience you are currently ok continuing to wait. And as it's your money it's really no one else's business, even if it doesn't work out.

Certainly some parts of the more rational portions of the discussion above are worthwhile to caution other potential investors.

Personally I hope things do move forward for you. It would be great to see this glider get into production. However only time will tell, everything is pure speculation.

On Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 6:30:18 PM UTC-7, Mike N. wrote:
Eric,
Why do you care what these guys think anyway?

It was your decision to make the investment and you sound like you knew the potential risks going in.

So who gives a ****e what anyone of the above detractors think?

In the end only time will tell if you made a good decision. You've indicated based on your experience you are currently ok continuing to wait. And as it's your money it's really no one else's business, even if it doesn't work out.

Certainly some parts of the more rational portions of the discussion above are worthwhile to caution other potential investors.

Personally I hope things do move forward for you. It would be great to see this glider get into production. However only time will tell, everything is pure speculation.

"Only time will tell" is the last refuge of a scoundrel - there are a lot of red flags visible right now about the GP-15 that make me shudder. The registration issue itself is a huge one. And a business that must finance itself off of its customers is a poorly run business.

Tom

At 03:27 28 June 2020, 2G wrote:
And a business that must finance itself off of its customers is a poorly
run business.

I think most business schools would say that a business that can get its
customers to pay up front is brilliant! Cash is king.

Jim

Dave Nadler wrote on 6/27/2020 6:07 PM:
On Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 10:20:43 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
I'm expecting my GP15 to be at least a month delayed.

Huh? Say WHAT? When was delivery originally promised to you?

The following applies regardless of whether one discusses GP or other vendors.
I really do wish GP the best, might even have ordered one except I already
have too many electric-powered gliders (maybe someday I'll get it flying again,
after most recent failure in March, after repairing prior failure last fall).
Anyway...

The "at least a month delayed" was from whatever delivery date would have been
achieved before the corona virus shutdowns in Poland and countries were the
factory has supplier. I know glider delivery dates, especially for new models from
any manufacturer, tend to drift into the future.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

On Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 12:17:49 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
I know glider delivery dates, especially for new models from
any manufacturer, tend to drift into the future.

So they do.
I've waited on average some years after initial "promises".
Only once had one show up ~on time (even a bit early).
Don't sell the current glider until the new one is on the boat!
Of course, if getting a motorglider, you need a spare glider anyway...

https://www.edkilbourne.com/lyrics---cloudbase.html

Look up Ed Kilbourne's "The New Glider Blues" (aka "The LS-22 Song") if you think delays are a new phenomenon...

Oh Kinsell
Ouch
Thats gotta hurt
Nick
T