Bin Laden and his love of aviation terror

You are a complete asshole

C J Campbell wrote:

Right now the governments of both Pakistan and Afghanistan are important US
allies in the fight against terrorism. Both countries have lost more
soldiers in this war than we have. bin Laden and his terrorist networks are
actively trying to overthrow the legitimate governments of these countries
through the use of force.

But you want to threaten our allies with random use of nuclear weapons.
Yeah, that'll convince them to get in line.

wrote in message
...
| You are a complete asshole
|

No, but I will do until one comes along.

On Wed, 24 Dec 2003 20:48:36 -0500, JJ wrote:
1. We know that terror operatives are hiding in the mountains between
Afghanistan and Pakistan

2. It is possible that Bin Laden himself is in this area

3. We are running around like crazy raising alert levels, canx flights etc.

How about this warning from our US Government:

If any terror attack occurs on US soil that results in loss of American
life or damage to American infrastructure from Bin Laden and friends, we
will launch one minuteman nuclear missile into the mountains of
Afghanistan and Pakistan and obliterate 200 square miles for each attack
or loss of life in America.

Just one small problem. As of November, 2002, the maximum explosive
yield of the nuclear weapons carried on a Minuteman missile was a total
of just over a megaton (3 W-78 warheads with a yield of 375 kilotons
each.)

It would be pretty much impossible to "obliterate 200 square miles" with the
weapons carried on one Minuteman. Let's assume you want at least 5 psi
overpressure (the minimum needed to cause heavy damage to an American-style
wood frame house.) The blast from a 375 kiloton airburst at optimum altitude
(assuming flat terrain in the target area) will give you 5 psi at a maximum
range of about 3.2 miles, covering an area of only about 32 square miles.
Multiply by three, and you're still more than 100 square miles short of your
goal.

For maximum psychological effect, though, you probably want craters and
fallout. To get a decent crater and appreciable fallout, you need to detonate
the warheads at ground level. A 375-kiloton groundburst would give you
5 psi overpressure out to only about 2 miles from ground zero, covering
only about 12.5 square miles. Multiply by three, and you still could easily
leave Osama bin Laden laughing at you from the 162.5 square miles of your
intended target area that you haven't damaged. You would get three
fairly impressive craters about 1,500 feet in diameter and close to 200
feet deep (assuming mostly rock at ground zero instead of loose soil),
but that's it.

Damage would be reduced further by the mountainous terrain and the fact
that most buildings in that part of the world are made of mud brick, stone,
or concrete, which would be far more resistant to blast overpressure than
wood frame construction.


ljd

Laurence Doering wrote:
On Wed, 24 Dec 2003 20:48:36 -0500, JJ wrote:

1. We know that terror operatives are hiding in the mountains between
Afghanistan and Pakistan

2. It is possible that Bin Laden himself is in this area

3. We are running around like crazy raising alert levels, canx flights etc.

How about this warning from our US Government:

If any terror attack occurs on US soil that results in loss of American
life or damage to American infrastructure from Bin Laden and friends, we
will launch one minuteman nuclear missile into the mountains of
Afghanistan and Pakistan and obliterate 200 square miles for each attack
or loss of life in America.


Just one small problem. As of November, 2002, the maximum explosive
yield of the nuclear weapons carried on a Minuteman missile was a total
of just over a megaton (3 W-78 warheads with a yield of 375 kilotons
each.)

It would be pretty much impossible to "obliterate 200 square miles" with the
weapons carried on one Minuteman. Let's assume you want at least 5 psi
overpressure (the minimum needed to cause heavy damage to an American-style
wood frame house.) The blast from a 375 kiloton airburst at optimum altitude
(assuming flat terrain in the target area) will give you 5 psi at a maximum
range of about 3.2 miles, covering an area of only about 32 square miles.
Multiply by three, and you're still more than 100 square miles short of your
goal.

Where do you get your 5 psi figure from? Sounds way high to me. A
30x40' house with even the short side getting hit with a 5 psi
differential would sustain a force of 172,800 lbs (30'x8'x144"/sq.
ftx5psi) or 86.4 tons. I'd be surprised most stud frame houses would
withstand this, and this is ignoring the load on the roof.


Matt

On Sat, 27 Dec 2003 14:01:18 GMT, Matthew S. Whiting wrote:
Laurence Doering wrote:
On Wed, 24 Dec 2003 20:48:36 -0500, JJ wrote:

It would be pretty much impossible to "obliterate 200 square miles" with the
weapons carried on one Minuteman. Let's assume you want at least 5 psi
overpressure (the minimum needed to cause heavy damage to an American-style
wood frame house.) The blast from a 375 kiloton airburst at optimum altitude
(assuming flat terrain in the target area) will give you 5 psi at a maximum
range of about 3.2 miles, covering an area of only about 32 square miles.
Multiply by three, and you're still more than 100 square miles short of your
goal.

Where do you get your 5 psi figure from? Sounds way high to me. A
30x40' house with even the short side getting hit with a 5 psi
differential would sustain a force of 172,800 lbs (30'x8'x144"/sq.
ftx5psi) or 86.4 tons. I'd be surprised most stud frame houses would
withstand this, and this is ignoring the load on the roof.

My source is the 1962 edition of _The Effects of Nuclear Weapons_, edited
by Samuel Glasstone.

Chapter 5 describes the effects of a 1953 weapons test on several replicas
of houses constructed at the Nevada Test Site. 5 psi overpressure was enough
to collapse a 2-story wood frame house and severely damage a single-story
"rambler"-style wood frame house. 1.7 psi overpressure left the buildings
standing, but blew out doors and windows and caused moderate damage to roofs.

A later 1955 test subjected a wood frame house that had been reinforced
(based on the results of the 1953 test) to 4 psi overpressure. The
structure remained standing with the roof partially collapsed.

I assumed 5 psi as a ballpark figure for the minimum overpressure needed to
substantially damage or destroy almost everything within a certain radius of
ground zero. The 5 psi radius is also close to the maximum radius where
you'd have a reasonable chance of killing or injuring people or livestock
in the open.

You're not going to find many wood frame buildings in the mountains of
Pakistan, though, and you need overpressures more in the neighborhood of
15-25 psi to severely damage or destroy masonry or concrete buildings.
Sure, you could break windows and scare people over a larger area, but the
original poster wanted to "obliterate" 200 square miles with a single
missile.


ljd

Laurence Doering wrote:
On Sat, 27 Dec 2003 14:01:18 GMT, Matthew S. Whiting wrote:

Laurence Doering wrote:

On Wed, 24 Dec 2003 20:48:36 -0500, JJ wrote:

It would be pretty much impossible to "obliterate 200 square miles" with the
weapons carried on one Minuteman. Let's assume you want at least 5 psi
overpressure (the minimum needed to cause heavy damage to an American-style
wood frame house.) The blast from a 375 kiloton airburst at optimum altitude
(assuming flat terrain in the target area) will give you 5 psi at a maximum
range of about 3.2 miles, covering an area of only about 32 square miles.
Multiply by three, and you're still more than 100 square miles short of your
goal.

Where do you get your 5 psi figure from? Sounds way high to me. A
30x40' house with even the short side getting hit with a 5 psi
differential would sustain a force of 172,800 lbs (30'x8'x144"/sq.
ftx5psi) or 86.4 tons. I'd be surprised most stud frame houses would
withstand this, and this is ignoring the load on the roof.


My source is the 1962 edition of _The Effects of Nuclear Weapons_, edited
by Samuel Glasstone.

Chapter 5 describes the effects of a 1953 weapons test on several replicas
of houses constructed at the Nevada Test Site. 5 psi overpressure was enough
to collapse a 2-story wood frame house and severely damage a single-story
"rambler"-style wood frame house. 1.7 psi overpressure left the buildings
standing, but blew out doors and windows and caused moderate damage to roofs.

A later 1955 test subjected a wood frame house that had been reinforced
(based on the results of the 1953 test) to 4 psi overpressure. The
structure remained standing with the roof partially collapsed.

I assumed 5 psi as a ballpark figure for the minimum overpressure needed to
substantially damage or destroy almost everything within a certain radius of
ground zero. The 5 psi radius is also close to the maximum radius where
you'd have a reasonable chance of killing or injuring people or livestock
in the open.

You're not going to find many wood frame buildings in the mountains of
Pakistan, though, and you need overpressures more in the neighborhood of
15-25 psi to severely damage or destroy masonry or concrete buildings.
Sure, you could break windows and scare people over a larger area, but the
original poster wanted to "obliterate" 200 square miles with a single
missile.

Getting pretty far off topic here, but any idea if this is the response
to a transient shock wave or a steady state pressure difference as would
exist with a hurricane force wind?

Is any of this resistance to air pressure available online?


Matt

On Sat, 27 Dec 2003 21:06:16 GMT, Matthew S. Whiting wrote:
Laurence Doering wrote:
[...]

You're not going to find many wood frame buildings in the mountains of
Pakistan, though, and you need overpressures more in the neighborhood of
15-25 psi to severely damage or destroy masonry or concrete buildings.
Sure, you could break windows and scare people over a larger area, but the
original poster wanted to "obliterate" 200 square miles with a single
missile.

Getting pretty far off topic here, but any idea if this is the response
to a transient shock wave or a steady state pressure difference as would
exist with a hurricane force wind?

Overpressures from the blast wave generated by a nuclear explosion
are transient, lasting on the order of several seconds, not steady
state loads like strong winds would generate.

Is any of this resistance to air pressure available online?

If you're primarily interested in the effects of nuclear weapons,
the Nuclear Weapons FAQ at

http://nuclearweaponsarchive.org

is a good source.

A Google search will turn up a lot of other stuff, for example:

http://www.eqe.com/publications/revf95/explos.htm

which is an article about the effects of explosions at chemical
plants and refineries on buildings on the plant grounds, and
how to improve building construction to better protect occupants
from blast and fires.

The bible on standards for various sorts of loads on buildings
seems to be ASCE 7-02, a publication of the American Society
of Civil Engineers. It doesn't seem to be available online,
but if you're really interested it's for sale on their website.


ljd

"Laurence Doering" wrote in message news:bsjruk$cjsrv$1@ID-|
|
| Damage would be reduced further by the mountainous terrain and the fact
| that most buildings in that part of the world are made of mud brick,
stone,
| or concrete, which would be far more resistant to blast overpressure than
| wood frame construction.

I have to wonder about that, given the horrendous damage caused by the
recent earthquake in Iran. These structures do not seem to me to be
particularly well built.

C J Campbell wrote:

I have to wonder about that, given the horrendous damage caused by the
recent earthquake in Iran. These structures do not seem to me to be
particularly well built.

That's a very different force. In fact, different earthquakes can apply
different forces depending upon a number of factors (ie. the ground
material).

- Andrew

"C J Campbell" wrote in message
...

"Laurence Doering" wrote in message
news:bsjruk$cjsrv$1@ID-|
|
| Damage would be reduced further by the mountainous terrain and the fact
| that most buildings in that part of the world are made of mud brick,
stone,
| or concrete, which would be far more resistant to blast overpressure
than
| wood frame construction.

I have to wonder about that, given the horrendous damage caused by the
recent earthquake in Iran. These structures do not seem to me to be
particularly well built.

The Northridge (CA) earthquake (7.1 ??) Richter killed a "handful" of
people, given the high density of the population. OTOH, _EVERY_ earthquake
in the rest of the world seems to have death tolls in the tens of thousands.

Go figure!