Can I relax now?

"Wizard of Draws" wrote in
message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?

No, not as far as anyone has shown. The legend seems to originate with Paul
Craig's book The Killing Zone, which says that most fatalities strike pilots
between 50 and 350 flight hours. The problem, though, is that the book makes
no attempt to normalize by the number of flight hours per year flown by
pilots with various levels of experience. So for all the book really shows,
pilots in the "killing zone" may be less safe, more safe, or just as safe
(in terms of fatality rate per flight hour) than pilots at other levels of
experience. (Several of the book's reader reviews at amazon.com point out
this elementary statistical error.)

Congratulations on your milestone though!

--Gary

This is a fundamental problem with the killing zone analysis. There is
another problem -- no adjustment for the exogeneity of innate ability
or cautiousness. That is, there's really no way to know if the pilots
who offed themselves in a few hundred hours would go on to fly for
thousands more hours if they were somehow magically revived, or if they
would have only gone and offed themselves a few hours later.

Put another way, there's no easy way to know if you, as a 300+ hour
pilot not only need not worry, but never needed to worry because you're
an innately better/smarter pilot than those other dead guys. (I'm being
facetious; of course you should worry. A pilot must constantly work to
maintain the safety of a flight.)

But statistically, this is a valid question. Are those pilot's who die
in 300 hours different in any other way other than being 300.
Because the of the partly self-selecting nature of making it to 300,
1000, 10000, or whatever, this is a real question. There are
statistical techniques for correcting this. Don't know if "killing
zone" does this.

-- dave, a still-worried instrument rated pilot 350 hours and a few too
many econometrics classes

-- jacobowitz73 --at-- yahoo --dot-- com

Gary Drescher wrote:
"Wizard of Draws" wrote in
message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?

No, not as far as anyone has shown. The legend seems to originate with Paul
Craig's book The Killing Zone, which says that most fatalities strike pilots
between 50 and 350 flight hours. The problem, though, is that the book makes
no attempt to normalize by the number of flight hours per year flown by
pilots with various levels of experience. So for all the book really shows,
pilots in the "killing zone" may be less safe, more safe, or just as safe
(in terms of fatality rate per flight hour) than pilots at other levels of
experience. (Several of the book's reader reviews at amazon.com point out
this elementary statistical error.)

Congratulations on your milestone though!

--Gary

On 7/2/06 5:53 PM, in article
,
" wrote:


This is a fundamental problem with the killing zone analysis. There is
another problem -- no adjustment for the exogeneity of innate ability
or cautiousness. That is, there's really no way to know if the pilots
who offed themselves in a few hundred hours would go on to fly for
thousands more hours if they were somehow magically revived, or if they
would have only gone and offed themselves a few hours later.

Put another way, there's no easy way to know if you, as a 300+ hour
pilot not only need not worry, but never needed to worry because you're
an innately better/smarter pilot than those other dead guys. (I'm being
facetious; of course you should worry. A pilot must constantly work to
maintain the safety of a flight.)

But statistically, this is a valid question. Are those pilot's who die
in 300 hours different in any other way other than being 300.
Because the of the partly self-selecting nature of making it to 300,
1000, 10000, or whatever, this is a real question. There are
statistical techniques for correcting this. Don't know if "killing
zone" does this.

-- dave, a still-worried instrument rated pilot 350 hours and a few too
many econometrics classes

-- jacobowitz73 --at-- yahoo --dot-- com


I realize that I still have to worry simply because, like on a motorcycle,
I'm at the mercy of my own skill AND the skill of the other guy out there.

I feel I'm a better pilot now than I ever have been, especially since I have
my IFR ticket, and I almost always learn something every time I fly, but
that in itself is an indication to me that something can go wrong that I
haven't foreseen or come across yet. So I worry.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

Wizard of Draws wrote:
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

I do not have any statistical data to back this claim, but my
observation has been that there is no correlation between accident
rates and PIC hours. New pilots compensate for their lack of experience
with a greater personal minimums, while pilots with more experience
tend to cancel out their advantage with a lower personal mininums. In
the end I think they all come out even.

However, you can benefit from your experience if you do not lessen your
personal minimum as you gain experience. But I have rarely seen this
happen. Afterall, the sign of experience is the ability to do things
that others unable to.

However, you can benefit from your experience if you do not lessen your
personal minimum as you gain experience.

Only temporarily. Then you stop gaining experience as you gain hours.

Jose
--
The monkey turns the crank and thinks he's making the music.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

"Wizard of Draws" wrote in
message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

Jeff:
I passed my 300 and found they droped my
premium on my insurance,not much ,but I'll take it.

All the best

Bob Barker N8749S

On 7/2/06 6:50 PM, in article ,
"Robert A. Barker" wrote:


"Wizard of Draws" wrote in
message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

Jeff:
I passed my 300 and found they droped my
premium on my insurance,not much ,but I'll take it.

All the best

Bob Barker N8749S



Yeah, I'm hoping that's the case with my insurance too. I'll have to shoot
my agent an email and ask.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

Wizard of Draws wrote:
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?

You can bend an airplane any time. All the 300 hour mark means is that
if you're going to bend an airplane now, it is slightly more likely that
your mistake will be due to your own stupidity than from inexperience.

Do not relax too much. Congratulations.

Wizard of Draws wrote:
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.

Congrats. on the 300 hr. milestone Jeff. It's always nice to see
another 100 hours accumulate in the logbook.


--
Jack Allison
PP-ASEL-Instrument Airplane
Arrow N2104T

"When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth
with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there
you will always long to return"
- Leonardo Da Vinci

(Remove the obvious from address to reply via e-mail)

Wizard of Draws wrote:
Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?

Hey Jeff,

Congrats on passing the 300 hour mark. Actually 500 hours is one of those
milestones, but you are well on the way.

Hope thigns are going well up there in No. Georgia. Do you get to see Randall
much? Happy 4th!!!

Scott