FLYING VFR IN IMC CONDITIONS

Sky Scrapper wrote:
HI everyone,
80% of aircrashes has taken place coz pilot attempted to fly VFR in
prevailing IMC.

Made up statistics. While measurement and categorization differ
from researcher to researcher most aircrashes don't even occur in
IMC (let alone by VFR). Weather in general comprises only 5%
or so of all accidents and less than 20% of the fatal accidents.


Most non-fatal accidents occur during takeoff and landing.

The issue is not that VFR-into-IMC comprises a large number
of crashes, but that VFR-into-IMC operations are more likely
to result in a crash (a fatal one at that) when they do occur.
Most of the weather related fatalities were VFR-into-IMC situations.

Source (2005 NALL REPORT, AOPA/Air Safety Foundation).

On Sat, 15 Jul 2006 12:13:13 -0400, Ron Natalie wrote:

The issue is not that VFR-into-IMC comprises a large number of crashes,
but that VFR-into-IMC operations are more likely to result in a crash (a
fatal one at that) when they do occur. Most of the weather related
fatalities were VFR-into-IMC situations.

While I've no problem believing that VFR into IMC is a dangerous
situation, I've some difficulty believing that it is as likely to cause
crashes as you state. Perhaps I'm just being cynical, but I can imagine
instrument rated pilots doing quite well in the clouds w/o a clearance.

Despite what some news reporters would have the public believe, we know
that the lack of a flight plan doesn't immediately translate into flaming
wreckage falling from the sky.

At least once, I've myself experienced a case where ATC told me someone
"not being worked" was nearby while I myself was in the clouds. It's
possible that that other aircraft was VMC...but not too likely.

And I've read of other encounters here occasionally.

Keep in mind that statistics have no way to count such flights if they've
a successful outcome. So we've no way to know how frequent or infrequent
this is.

- Andrew

On Sat, 15 Jul 2006 13:06:42 -0400, Andrew Gideon
wrote in ::

Perhaps I'm just being cynical, but I can imagine
instrument rated pilots doing quite well in the clouds w/o a clearance.

That occurs quite often in Class G airspace.


So we've no way to know how frequent or infrequent this is.

But you'll have to agree, that is highly unlikely that 80% of VFR in
IMC flights result in disaster as the original poster apparently
believes.

i have just gone through my original message and realized my mistake. i
could not convey what actually i wanted. "high ratio of airline crashes
is attributable to flying VFR in IMC."

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sat, 15 Jul 2006 13:06:42 -0400, Andrew Gideon
wrote in ::

Perhaps I'm just being cynical, but I can imagine
instrument rated pilots doing quite well in the clouds w/o a clearance.

That occurs quite often in Class G airspace.


So we've no way to know how frequent or infrequent this is.

But you'll have to agree, that is highly unlikely that 80% of VFR in
IMC flights result in disaster as the original poster apparently
believes.

Sky Scrapper wrote:
i have just gone through my original message and realized my mistake. i
could not convey what actually i wanted. "high ratio of airline crashes
is attributable to flying VFR in IMC."

I think this mistake is even bigger than your last one. I don't know
what part of the world you are talking about, but I don't know of any US
airlines that routinely fly VFR. Maybe in Alaska...


Matt

Sky Scrapper wrote:
i have just gone through my original message and realized my mistake. i
could not convey what actually i wanted. "high ratio of airline crashes
is attributable to flying VFR in IMC."

Which airline flies VFR in VMC *or* IMC?

"Sky Scrapper" wrote in message
ups.com...
i have just gone through my original message and realized my mistake. i
could not convey what actually i wanted. "high ratio of airline crashes
is attributable to flying VFR in IMC."

Skylune, is that you???? Come on out now we know you are in there.

Sky,

"high ratio of airline crashes
is attributable to flying VFR in IMC."


Huh? Now I'd really want you to back that statement up with numbers.
Can you?

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

Andrew Gideon wrote:


While I've no problem believing that VFR into IMC is a dangerous
situation, I've some difficulty believing that it is as likely to cause
crashes as you state. Perhaps I'm just being cynical, but I can imagine
instrument rated pilots doing quite well in the clouds w/o a clearance.

VFR-into-IMC generally refers to VFR pilots into IMC not Instrument
rated (or at least trained) pilots operating under VFR when they should
be IFR.

On Sat, 15 Jul 2006 15:48:44 -0400, Ron Natalie wrote:

VFR-into-IMC generally refers to VFR pilots into IMC not Instrument rated
(or at least trained) pilots operating under VFR when they should be IFR.

I was at a safety seminar (ASF, perhaps?) a while back where the lecturer
made a point of saying that "VFR-into-IMC" accidents included instrument
rated pilots at least to some nontrivial extent. When questioned, he did
agree that the statistics he was citing made no reference to level of
currency.

I don't have that fellow's statistics, though, so I don't really know how
honest or accurate his statement was. It seemed a little odd to me, but
I've not yet fallen out of IFR currency. I've no idea what it would be
like to be years out of currency.

- Andrew