Aviation Dilemma 101 - How much trust in a 10 day forecast??

Mortimer Schnerd, RN wrote:
You haven't made it clear what your abilities are but if I were flying further
than 200 miles and didn't have an instrument rating, I'd find somebody with one
and who is current to come along. Otherwise your attempt to fly cross country
VFR on a time schedule is really just a crap shoot.

In the summer you can fly out West all you want w/o an instrument
rating. Just avoid the coast.

-Robert

Robert M. Gary wrote:
Mortimer Schnerd, RN wrote:
You haven't made it clear what your abilities are but if I were flying
further than 200 miles and didn't have an instrument rating, I'd find
somebody with one and who is current to come along. Otherwise your attempt
to fly cross country VFR on a time schedule is really just a crap shoot.

In the summer you can fly out West all you want w/o an instrument
rating. Just avoid the coast.


I think the original posting indicated he was planning to go to Oshkosh, WI.
They get their share of crappy weather there just like much of the rest of the
country.



--
Mortimer Schnerd, RN

VE

On Wed, 19 Jul 2006 22:02:59 GMT, john smith wrote:

My experience... anything beyond 48 hours is beyond belief.

I live in New Hampshire, where the rule of thumb is 12 hours.


-- all the best, Dan Ford

email: usenet AT danford DOT net

Warbird's Forum: www.warbirdforum.com
Piper Cub Forum: www.pipercubforum.com
In Search of Lost Time: www.readingproust.com

"Mortimer Schnerd, RN" wrote:

I think the original posting indicated he was planning to go to Oshkosh, WI.
They get their share of crappy weather there just like much of the rest of the
country.

This time of year (at least during the day) the type of IMC they get is in
the form of t-storms, is it not? An IFR rating won't really help here.

--
Peter

On 2006-07-19, Kyle Boatright wrote:
[snip]
Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

As everyone else has said, the 10-day forecast is generally a steaming
pile of bovine fecal matter.

What I've done with the 10-day forecast is compare yesterday's 10-day
with today's 9-day, then wait a day and compare that with the next
day's 8-day, etc., all the way down to the the day of the trip.

I also do the same thing at AOPA's web site, which has prog charts
going out 5 days.

This gives you a trendline, indicating how stable the weather guessers
think the pattern is.

There are a few things they're particularly bad at estimating,
including the speed of frontal passage and the exact time the fog
will burn off.

There are numerous times when I've called for an outlook briefing
24 hours in advance and concluded that I'd have to wait for the
12-hour forecast for more information. And there are times when
I've gone to the airport and hung around for hours waiting for the
next weather set of weather observations (and the next, and the
next, ...).

Time to spare, go by air. I missed half of the annual Pinkneyville
fly-in this year because, even with a current instrument rating,
we couldn't get out on the Friday. Next day, the entire trip was
VMC.


Morris

"Peter R." wrote

This time of year (at least during the day) the type of IMC they get is in
the form of t-storms, is it not? An IFR rating won't really help here.
\
I have seen OSH go IFR only, with no T-storms around, but that is the
exception to the rule. Usually, you are right.

The one day I am thinking of, it went from closed to VFR, in a period of
about 3 minutes, then closed again.

I wonder if the two Harriers, reporting at 5 miles out, coming in low fuel
had anything to do with that? vbg It did close again, less than a minute
after they were on the ground! g
--
Jim in NC

Peter R. wrote:
I think the original posting indicated he was planning to go to Oshkosh, WI.
They get their share of crappy weather there just like much of the rest of
the country.

This time of year (at least during the day) the type of IMC they get is in
the form of t-storms, is it not? An IFR rating won't really help here.


Not all the IFR flying in the summertime is in the middle of cells. Summertime
haze in the proper direction will also render you IFR without a cloud in the
sky. I used to fly IFR every afternoon between RDU (Raleigh, NC) and CLT
(Charlotte, NC)... a route of flight that put me into the sun in the late
afternoon. Sometimes there were clouds; sometime there was rain; but there was
almost always really poor visibility in the summer. You could see straight down
fine but nothing in front of you.

And if you do manage to stumble into an embedded cell, you'll find the rating
damned handy. I'm living proof if nobody else will admit it. Without the
rating you'd just be another statistic. Hell, *with* the rating you may become
a statistic also but so far, so good (at least for me).



--
Mortimer Schnerd, RN

VE

Yeah, I've noticed predicted spells of bad weather drift forward or
backward.
--
Gene Seibel
Tales of Flight - http://pad39a.com/gene/tales.html
Because I fly, I envy no one.


Wizard of Draws wrote:
On 7/19/06 5:40 PM, in article ,


I usually find the 10th day of a 10-day forecast to be a day off, (forward
or back, your choice) if it's to be believed at all.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

A ten day forecast WILL change, probably drastically. A one day
forecast has a good chance of changing.
--
Gene Seibel
Hangar 131 - http://pad39a.com/gene/plane.html
Because I fly, I envy no one.




Kyle Boatright wrote:
I"m lookin' at going to Oshkosh towards the end of the show - Thursday
through Sunday. Right now, the weather channel is predicting a pretty good
chance of rain in Wisconsin on Thursday and Friday and is predicting similar
weather for the first couple hundred miles North heading out of Atlanta.

Soooo... Do I bank on the 10 day forcast being way off base, or do I bet on
the forecast, make a drastic change in plans and head to Osh at the
beginning of the week, which looks more favorable from a weather standpoint?

Decisions, decisions...

KB

Cub Driver opined

On Wed, 19 Jul 2006 22:02:59 GMT, john smith wrote:

My experience... anything beyond 48 hours is beyond belief.

I live in New Hampshire, where the rule of thumb is 12 hours.

I thought it was "if you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes..."

-ash
Cthulhu in 2005!
Why wait for nature?