Accident statistics

"Marc Adler" wrote:


As you have probably guessed, this information is for calming a wife's
worry about her husband's burgeoning interest in flying...

If that's what you're after, you probably won't like what you find.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

So, based on these numbers, I have a 1.3% chance of a fatal accident
before I reach 1000 hours. Wow, that is a bit high....

My mother recently died in a motorcycle accident, and that brings the
risk of such things a bit closer to home if you know what I mean...

--Dan


Dan Luke wrote:
"Marc Adler" wrote:


As you have probably guessed, this information is for calming a wife's
worry about her husband's burgeoning interest in flying...

If that's what you're after, you probably won't like what you find.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

On 2006-09-19, Dan wrote:
So, based on these numbers, I have a 1.3% chance of a fatal accident
before I reach 1000 hours. Wow, that is a bit high....

But you will only kill 1.75 people in the plane[*]. If you carry 1.75
passengers all the time, the chances of YOU dying go way down. Just
make sure they don't wear their seatbelts.
[*] also 1.6% of one person on the ground. Maybe someone will lose a
hand.

--
Ben Jackson AD7GD

http://www.ben.com/

Dan:

Remember, these figures http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/Table10.htm are
based on "Flight Hours", which are different from "Air Hours" (at least
where I'm from in Canada). For small aircraft flight hours start at
the time the electrical system of the plane is started, to when it is
shut off, and the AC is no longer moving.

In essence what this means is that all the time the aircraft is being
operated in any way, even on the ground, are included in "Flight
Hours". If any power source in the plane is operational (or the AC is
moving with a person on board), then this is counted as a Flight Hour.
Thus, all ground accidents, such as those where people walk into moving
propellers, and taxiing accidents, are included here.

There are a considerable number of fatal accidents involving small AC
on the ground, most of which are due to carelessness, or unkowledgable
people being allowed to walk too close to an operating AC.

On the other hand, "Air Hours" are those hours that the AC spends from
the time its wheels leave the ground to the time they (hopefully
extended) touch down again.

During flight training operations non-Air Hours can make up a
considerable portion of the Flight Hours (For instance, during my
training flights as much as 20% of my "Flight Hours" were not "Air
Hours", so this fact should be taken into account when looking at these
accident figures.).

One conclusion to be drawn is that these rates include accidents on the
ground involving AC powered in any way, or moving in any way with a
person on board.

I don't know if this will serve to comfort your wife at all however ...


I am unsure if there are stats anywhere that remove the accidents that
occur during non Air Hours. These would give a more accurate idea of
the danger involved in flying, as opposed to the danger of being around
operating and dangerous equipment, which, when you think about it, is
all an AC is when it is on the ground and running - a dangerous
machine, but not essentially different from working with any number of
other large machines with rapidly moving parts.

PPL-A


Dan wrote:
So, based on these numbers, I have a 1.3% chance of a fatal accident
before I reach 1000 hours. Wow, that is a bit high....

My mother recently died in a motorcycle accident, and that brings the
risk of such things a bit closer to home if you know what I mean...

--Dan


Dan Luke wrote:
"Marc Adler" wrote:


As you have probably guessed, this information is for calming a wife's
worry about her husband's burgeoning interest in flying...

If that's what you're after, you probably won't like what you find.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

"PPL-A" wrote in message
ups.com...
Thus, all ground accidents, such as those where people walk into moving
propellers, and taxiing accidents, are included here.

There are a considerable number of fatal accidents involving small AC
on the ground,

The Nall Report lists US ground fatalities (taxi or preflight) separately
from other fatal accidents. In 2004, there were no taxi/preflight deaths. In
2003, there was one. In 2002, there were none. These years are typical.
Taxi/preflight fatalities are rare, and do not noticeably change the GA
fatality statistics.

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html

--Gary

On 18 Sep 2006 21:05:37 -0700, "Dan" wrote:

So, based on these numbers, I have a 1.3% chance of a fatal accident
before I reach 1000 hours. Wow, that is a bit high....

My mother recently died in a motorcycle accident, and that brings the
risk of such things a bit closer to home if you know what I mean...

--Dan


Dan Luke wrote:
"Marc Adler" wrote:


As you have probably guessed, this information is for calming a wife's
worry about her husband's burgeoning interest in flying...

If that's what you're after, you probably won't like what you find.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

This thread seems to have been hijacked by problems with vehicles on
the road but to reply to the original question. My way of thinking is
as follows:

As has been already said, the vast majority of accidents are pilot
error. The more cautious you are the safer you're likely to be.

When it comes to aircraft failures they are minimal but if you do
loose an engine hopefully it will not be a serious problem. All
aircraft are gliders, they only need power to take-off!

Small aircraft will still fly (just) at around 50mph so any
unscheduled landing (crash) should be safer than say hitting another
car coming in the opposite direction at the same speed (100mph head
on?).

For non-flyers I usually mention the space shuttle is a glider and
lands without an engine! Ok if flies like a brick but it can still be
controlled to a safe landing.

Maybe you and your wife could be persuaded to take an introductory
flight with an instructor who maybe able to reduce her fears.

My wife gave me an introductory lesson in about 1987 as a way of
"getitng it out of my system". Wrong!!! In 1991 I got my PPL and now
have nearly 500 hours and fortunately my wife will fly with me.

Good luck!

DAvid

Marc,

Does anyone have any good sources for statistics on flying accidents.


The problem with all GA statistics is that flying hours are not
recorded in a reliable form, but rather estimated.

The problem about the worries of wives is that they are typically not
calmed by statistics or any other approach involving reason ;-)

Small aircraft GA is about as dangerous as riding a motor bike, IOW
more dangerous than driving a car. However, much of the dangers of
bikes come from drivers around you. Most of the dangers to a GA pilot
come from the pilot himself. "Don't do nothing stupid" is the prime
directive. Running out of fuel or pressing on into bad weather are
surprisingly common accident reasons.

In the end, it all comes down to what is an acceptable level of risk in
your life. There is no "zero risk", everything you do involves risk.
The question is: Is it acceptable to you and do you manage it well
enough to minimize it? In short: no risk, no fun.


--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

Thomas Borchert wrote:

However, much of the dangers of
bikes come from drivers around you.

This point was driven home to me in a very real way one day when I was
following a pickup with a few mattresses stacked in the bed. I was
looking at the ties they guy had used to secure the mattresses, when I
noticed they weren't ties at all, just bits of rope that were still
tied to the eyes around the bed. The mattresses weren't tied down!!!

As soon as that thought crossed my mind, like clockwork, the top
mattress started to slide. I was directly behind the pickup, so the
mattress was aimed right at me. I changed lanes just as the mattress
slid off the truck, and it came far too close to me - maybe three feet.
It all happened in a split second. I sped up and passed the pickup, and
the guy wasn't even aware that he had lost a mattress.

I sold my motorcycle shortly after that.I was still in college then,
but I've got kids now, and for me riding a motorcycle is too great an
act of faith in the drivers around me. I know how people drive, and I
don't want my life in their hands.

Most of the dangers to a GA pilot
come from the pilot himself.

That's what I explained to my wife. The likelihood of hitting another
plane seems pretty slim. Weather is another problem, but at least you
can usually see it change.

The question is: Is it acceptable to you and do you manage it well
enough to minimize it? In short: no risk, no fun.

I finished my argument by promising to up my life insurance. That
seemed to satisfy her. gulp

Time to go hide the cooking knives...

Marc

Marc,

I finished my argument by promising to up my life insurance.


More important is to check if it covers death while piloting general
aviation airplanes.

If not, AOPA can be a great resource. Are you familiar with them?
Membership is highly recommended and comes with a nice magazine for 38
$ a year. www.aopa.org.

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

Thomas Borchert wrote:

More important is to check if it covers death while piloting general
aviation airplanes.

Ah...

If not, AOPA can be a great resource. Are you familiar with them?
Membership is highly recommended and comes with a nice magazine for 38
$ a year. www.aopa.org.

I'll check it out. Thanks for all the info.

Marc