uh-oh...

In article ,
"Dan Luke" wrote:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm

From the article:

"From 2002 through 2005, general aviation accounted for an annual
average of 1,685 crashes and 583 deaths, making up 91 percent of all
U.S. aviation crashes and 94 percent of all aviation deaths, the
researchers said."

That seems improbable to me. It would imply that there were an average
of 166 commercial aviation crashes per year, or one every other day. It
would also imply an average of 37 deaths per year from commercial
aviation, or an average of 0.22 deaths per crash for a commercial
accident, versus an average of 0.34 deaths per crash for GA. Given that
the average commercial aircraft probably has dozens of times more
passengers than the average GA aircraft, it seems improbable that the
death rate per crash should be lower. It seems to me that at least one
of those numbers has to be wrong, which renders them all suspect.

rg

Ron Garret wrote:
Given that
the average commercial aircraft probably has dozens of times more
passengers than the average GA aircraft, it seems improbable that the
death rate per crash should be lower.

Well, remember that any flight under 121 or 135 is "commercial", so
everything from a 6-seat puddle jumper to a 747-400 is included (and
given the way most of the puddle jumper pilots I've seen move, I'll
believe it!).

Also, I believe that was the conclusion the researchers drew; that even
though there are more people involved in an average commercial flight,
far fewer of them are killed than on average GA flights, which should
allow the hypothesis that passengers are better protected on a
commercial flight (or else their crashes are less violent, it's not an
absolute conclusion).

Furthermore, they may be using the NTSB method of determining injury,
that is a flight is "fatal" if persons expire on impact or very soon
after; if they are gravely wounded and die two weeks later in the
hospital, the crash itself is still classed as only "serious". It may be
that commercial flights don't kill as many immediately, but the true
death-tolls aren't being properly tallied.

TheSmokingGnu

"Ron Garret" wrote:

It seems to me that at least one
of those numbers has to be wrong, which renders them all suspect.

That wouldn't matter to Scary Mary or the TV networks.

--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM

On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 20:09:27 -0500, "Dan Luke"
wrote in
:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm

Researchers fault US small airplane flight safety
10 Apr 2007 20:00:21 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON, April 10 (Reuters) - Private U.S. flights, usually
involving small airplanes, are 82 times more likely to be involved
in a fatal crash than major airlines, researchers said on Tuesday.

Writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association,
researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore said these
non-commercial flights account for most U.S. aviation crashes,
injuries and deaths.

They called these so-called general aviation flights a public
safety problem and urged the Federal Aviation Administration and
the National Transportation Safety Board to do more to improve
safety of small airplanes.

The general aviation rate of 1.31 fatal crashes per 100,000 flight
hours is 82 times greater than for major airlines, said the
researchers, who analyzed government statistics.


The above conclusion drawn by the Johns Hopkins University researchers
clearly shows their lack of comprehension of GA vs Airline flight
missions and which flight operations constitute the greatest hazards.
Airline flights:

* Long distance legs require lots of hours but only one takeoff
and
one landing
* Two professional pilots at the controls
* An FAA certificated Dispatcher on the ground influencing flight
decisions.
* Able to fly above the weather
* ...


General Aviation flights:

* Short distance legs mean many more landings and takeoffs are
performed per hour than on airline routes.
* Usually a single pilot at the controls
* Often the pilot holds only a student certificate.
* During training flights, which constitute a large percentage of
GA flight hours, the corners of the flight envelope are
routinely
explored.
* Flights conducted entirely within the Troposphere where weather
exists.
* ...

Is it reasonable to expect the fatal crash rate per 100,000 flight
hours of short training flights conducted by single, often student,
pilots with an emphasis on landing and takeoff operations to compare
favorably to long duration flights conducted by usually three FAA
certified professional personnel with only a single takeoff and
landing?

Should the Johns Hopkins University researchers be chastised and
dismissed for their fundamental errors leading to their faulty
analysis of a subject of which they obviously possess little knowledge
and understanding, yet proffer themselves as experts?


[This response was provided to Reuters via this link
http://www.alertnet.org/help/otherfaq.htm as no e-mail address was
provided for the author of the article.]

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:01:23 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

no e-mail address was provided for the author of the article.


But you can submit a response to this e-mail address:

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:21:25 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:01:23 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

no e-mail address was provided for the author of the article.

But you can submit a response to this e-mail address:



You can send your comments on this "research" directly to the Johns
Hopkins University researchers:

Guohua Li, MD, DrPH:
Susan P. Baker, MPH:

================================================
Guohua Li, MD, DrPH;
Guohua Li
Professor
Director of Research, Department of Emergency Medicine

Academic Degrees
MD, Beijing Medical University, 1984; MPH, Tongji Medical University,
1987; DrPH, Johns Hopkins University, 1993

Departmental Affiliation
Health Policy and Management

Joint Departmental Affiliations
Emergency Medicine

Departmental Address
5801 Smith Avenue, Suite 3220, Davis Building
Baltimore, MD 21209

Email:
Phone: 410-735-6419
Fax: 410-735-6425

Research and Professional Experience
An epidemiologist, Dr. Li is interested in injury causation and trauma
outcomes, with an emphasis on risk factors identification and policy
intervention. His studies encompass innovative research methodology,
injury surveillance systems, occupational safety, aging, and alcohol
abuse.

With funding from the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Li and
colleagues are working on projects aimed at understanding and reducing
injury risks facing the elderly population in occupational, driving,
recreational, and home settings, and assessing the safety benefit of
mandatory alcohol testing programs in aviation and motor carriers.

Keywords
Accident, Alcohol, Aviation, Emergency Medicine, Epidemiology, Injury,
Mortality, Occupational Safety, Public Policy, Risk Factor,
Statistics, Surveillance, Trauma
-------------------------------------------------------

http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/emerg...ty/JHH/li.html
Guohua Li, M.D., DrPH

Professor
Director of Research,
Department of Emergency Medicine

Education
Beijing Medical University, Beijing, China (M.D., 1984)
Tongji Medical University, Wuhan, China (M.S., 1987)
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland (Dr.P.H., 1993)

Fellowship
Johns Hopkins University, Health Policy and Management (1990)

An epidemiologist, Dr. Li is interested in injury causation and trauma
outcomes, with an emphasis on risk factors identification and policy
interventions. His studies encompass innovative research methodology,
injury surveillance systems, occupational safety, aging, and alcohol
abuse.

With funding from the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Li and
colleagues are working on projects aimed at understanding and reducing
injury risks facing the elderly population in occupational, driving,
recreational, and home settings, and assessing the safety benefit of
mandatory alcohol testing programs in aviation and motor carriers.

Dr. Li has published over 100 manuscripts in the field of injury
epidemiology. He is a Guggenheim Fellow, a recipient of the Kenneth
Rothman Epidemiology Prize, and a Fellow of the American College of
Epidemiology.
================================================== ====================


Susan P. Baker, MPH
http://faculty.jhsph.edu/Default.cfm?f=Susan&l=Baker
Susan Baker
Professor
Director, NIAAA Training Program in Alcohol, Injury, & Violence

Academic Degrees
MPH, Johns Hopkins 1968; ScD (Hon.), Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill, 1998; BA, Cornell Univ., 1951

Departmental Affiliation
Health Policy and Management
Health and Public Policy

Joint Departmental Affiliations
Environmental Health Sciences

Departmental Address
624 N. Broadway
Baltimore MD, 21205

Email:
Phone: 410-955-2078
Fax: 410-614-2797

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:57:46 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:21:25 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:01:23 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

no e-mail address was provided for the author of the article.

But you can submit a response to this e-mail address:



You can send your comments on this "research" directly to the Johns
Hopkins University researchers:

Guohua Li, MD, DrPH:
Susan P. Baker, MPH:

=============================================== =


I received the reply below in reply to my rebuke from one of the Johns
Hopkins University researchers. You will find the researchers'
original article available in its entirety at:
http://download3-5.files-upload.com/...l_Aviation.pdf



Dear Mr. Dighera, Thank you for writing to us. It appears that your
anger is based on reading the news report rather than what we wrote in
the commentary. Attached for your information is the commentary we
published in JAMA. Your points are well taken if used for explaining
why GA has a much higher crash rate than airlines. Please feel free
to contact us should you have any comment or question after reading
our commentary.

Sincerely,

Guohua Li, MD, DrPH
Professor and Director of Research
Department of Emergency Medicine
Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
5801 Smith Avenue
Davis Building, Suite 3220
Baltimore, MD 21209





Larry Dighera 4/12/2007 6:07 PM


Dear Guohua Li, MD, DrPH, and Susan P. Baker, MPH:

I read with interest this Reuters summary of your research:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm

Researchers fault US small airplane flight safety
10 Apr 2007 20:00:21 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON, April 10 (Reuters) - Private U.S. flights, usually
involving small airplanes, are 82 times more likely to be involved
in a fatal crash than major airlines, researchers said on Tuesday.

Writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association,
researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore said these
non-commercial flights account for most U.S. aviation crashes,
injuries and deaths.

They called these so-called general aviation flights a public
safety problem and urged the Federal Aviation Administration and
the National Transportation Safety Board to do more to improve
safety of small airplanes.

The general aviation rate of 1.31 fatal crashes per 100,000 flight
hours is 82 times greater than for major airlines, said the
researchers, who analyzed government statistics...

The above conclusion drawn by the Johns Hopkins University researchers
clearly shows their lack of comprehension of GA vs Airline flight
missions and which flight operations constitute the greatest hazards.
Airline flights:

* Long distance legs require lots of hours but only one takeoff
and one landing
* Two professional pilots at the controls
* An FAA certificated Dispatcher on the ground influencing flight
decisions.
* Able to fly above the weather
* ...


General Aviation flights:

* Short distance legs mean many more landings and takeoffs are
performed per hour than on airline routes.
* Usually a single pilot at the controls
* Often the pilot holds only a student certificate.
* During training flights, which constitute a large percentage of
GA flight hours, the corners of the flight envelope are
routinely explored.
* Flights conducted entirely within the Troposphere where weather
exists.
* ...

Questions:
Is it reasonable to expect the fatal crash rate per 100,000 flight
hours of short training flights conducted by single, often student,
pilots with an emphasis on landing and takeoff operations to compare
favorably to long duration flights conducted by usually three FAA
certified professional personnel with only a single takeoff and
landing?

Should the Johns Hopkins University researchers be chastised and
dismissed for their fundamental errors leading to their faulty
analysis of a subject of which they obviously possess little knowledge
and understanding, yet proffer themselves as experts?

In article ,
Larry Dighera wrote:

I received the reply below in reply to my rebuke from one of the Johns
Hopkins University researchers. You will find the researchers'
original article available in its entirety at:
http://download3-5.files-upload.com/...General_Aviati
on.pdf

"The page you are looking for is temporarily unavailable.
Please try again later."

Anyone able to post it?

--
Bob Noel
(goodness, please trim replies!!!)

On Apr 11, 8:09 pm, "Dan Luke" wrote:
Wait 'til Scary Mary gets on TV with this:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm

No surprise to pilots. Airlines have an incredible safety record to
which an undisciplined bunch of individual ragtag private pilots will
never come close.
--
Gene Seibel
Daughter Becca's Jewelry - http://pad39a.com/stelle_sheen
Because we fly, we envy no one.

On 2007-04-11 18:09:27 -0700, "Dan Luke" said:

Wait 'til Scary Mary gets on TV with this:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm

They called these so-called general aviation flights a public safety
problem and urged the Federal Aviation Administration and the National
Transportation Safety Board to do more to improve safety of small
airplanes.

Okay. "So-called general aviation?" Obviously we are hiding something here.

They missed the main factor in GA accidents -- pilot error. Airlines
don't buzz the house of the pilot's girlfriend. They don't chase cows.
They don't drop notes to the pretty girls on the beach. They don't fly
up box canyons to look at the view. They don't fly VFR into IMC. They
don't do aerobatics at 1500 feet. They don't load up the front seat
with camera equipment so that you can't see out and then try to fly
from the back seat. They take care of their airplanes. They don't fly
airplanes with known maintenance problems. They don't use automobile
parts to fix their airplanes. They know how much fuel they need. They
pay attention to weight and balance. They don't fly single engine IFR
over the mountains at night. They don't fly at 16,000 feet without
oxygen. They fly above the weather, not through it. They don't take off
with the wrong mixture setting. They pay attention to density altitude.
They don't fall asleep at the controls (well, not as often, anyway).
They don't get drunk as often. They don't fly with just one pilot. They
don't shoot the wing off the plane with an automatic shotgun while
hunting coyotes in Montana. If they botch a landing, they go around
instead of trying to save it. They figure out their route and flight
plan before they depart. In sum, they look professional, think
professional, and act professional.

GA pilots don't fly like airline pilots and have the accident record to
prove it. You can stuff all the airbags in the world into your seatbelt
and it will not save you from stupidity.

--
Waddling Eagle
World Famous Flight Instructor