Gas Prices -- Help at last?

"In 1981, the U.S. had 324 refineries with a total capacity of
processing 18.6 million barrels of crude per day. Today just 149
refineries have
a daily capacity of 16.8 million barrels."

If we truly have a refinery shortage, why aren't people waiting in lines to
buy fuel?

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
nk.net...
Here is the official data:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petro.../gasoline.html

Go there, then to the Production XLS file under History. Gasoline
production is up substantially in the past 20yrs as you would expect from
the increased number of cars and increased population.

Lets see: 1982-83 average is 6800bbl/day (at 81% capacity), 2004-05 avg is
8800 (at 96% capacity). Not quite 30%. I would suspect that more efficient
process and equipment has been a factor as well.

Now, since 1982, how much as US consumption of gasoline and other fuels
increased?

How much has the importation of gasoline (as oopsed to raw petroleum)
increased? I suspect that transportation of gasoline is much more costly
than petroleum since gasoline is explosive rather than merely flamable,
correct?


The reason no new refineries have been built is that it is cheaper to
expand existing ones because they already have all the infrastructure for
bringing crude in, the real estate is already owned and they are often
close to large markets.

When they expand, does it not require additional EPA compliance? How much
could they expand in the areas they already occupy?

The return on capital by increasing capacity at an existing refinery might
be double the return of building a new refinery.

Probably even more, like four or five times given the length of time before
a ROE is realized.

But how much can one enhance equipment when the refinery was built using, at
the latest, 35 year old technology?

It doesn't take a genius CEO to figure that one out. Is enviornmental
and other regulation a factor? Of course it is, but is not a big factor
when considering a multi-billion dollar refinery.

Ten years (minimum) delay and $billions$ before a single drop of fuel comes
out of the pipe is a big factor I'd say.

So why have they allowed more than half to close, given all that
infrastructure and accessibility?

Also, how many of our remaining 149 refineries are in either hurricane
zones, or hitching a ride on the San Andreas fault in California?


(18.6 Mbbl in 1981 vs 16.8Mbbl today)

http://www.investors.com/editorial/I...0051010&view=1

"
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., falsely claimed that the "major
oil companies haven't even tried to build one single new refinery in this
country in 30 years" and that they "do not really want to expand refinery
capacity because it would cut into their record-setting profits."

The fact is they increased capacity and use at least on a
refinery-by-refinery basis. In 1981, the U.S. had 324 refineries with a
total capacity of processing 18.6 million barrels of crude per day. Today
just 149 refineries have a daily capacity of 16.8 million barrels.

The refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and
no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and
regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion
not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with
environmental rules."

------------------------------------------------------------

So, again, are there costs with EPA/OSHA/et al compliance for _expanding_
existing refineries?

"JohnH" wrote in message
...

"In 1981, the U.S. had 324 refineries with a total capacity of
processing 18.6 million barrels of crude per day. Today just 149
refineries have
a daily capacity of 16.8 million barrels."

If we truly have a refinery shortage, why aren't people waiting in lines
to buy fuel?
Read the article; it states _why_ quite clearly.

It also gives a good picture of the trend.
--
Matt

---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

Matt Barrow wrote:
"JohnH" wrote in message
...

"In 1981, the U.S. had 324 refineries with a total capacity of
processing 18.6 million barrels of crude per day. Today just 149
refineries have
a daily capacity of 16.8 million barrels."

If we truly have a refinery shortage, why aren't people waiting in
lines to buy fuel?
Read the article; it states _why_ quite clearly.

It also gives a good picture of the trend.

Must have missed that - perhaps it was buired in all that stupid whiney
"banana" tripe.

So - again - what is the reason we aren't waiting in lines?

LOL. The irony.....

OOOPS... Not YOU.. the OTHER MATT... whiting or something or other..

Whiting, if you are following this, my retort was for you, and you alone.

Dave

Matt Barrow wrote:
"Dave S" wrote in message
nk.net...


Matt Barrow wrote:

WHINE !! BITCH!! MOAN!! NOT IN MY BACK YARD!! I want gas! I want cheap
gas!! I want this I want that!

Grow the **** up, America!!


Matt, let me know when you can debate something without resorting to
personal attacks or insults, then I will debate it with you.


Well, Dave, my apologies because my last point was a general take, not
directed to you (notice I said' Grow up America", not "Grow up, Dave"). I
notice you have very strong leanings and understanding toward free markets.
I'm not concerned about you selling short :~)

I do know I tend to lose it when people make foolish caveats especially ones
that are logical fallacies such as "without all this regulation we'd be in
(insert Armageddon class crisis)".


And.. I don't work in academia. I actually work for a living.


That helps, but those in academia consider that they "work for a living",
too. What's more, working for a living is no basis for understanding how
markets work. Even many managers don't "get it". Many are hired for their
political acumen, not for their knowledge or leadership qualities.


I also dont consider myself whining about prices for gas. I pay for it as
I go. Its nice to have enough disposable income to do so without
flinching.

The refineries ARE in my back yard. They pay their share in property taxes
to the localities and school systems. They also provide jobs to the
economy. I'd love for them to expand, and provide more capital to our
infrastructure here. But not at the cost of polluting unnecessarily.


Yes, indeed. Thing is, like so much of life, regulation stopped having a
goal (reduced pollution) and became a goal in itself (i.e., self-serving
bureaucracies). For example, years ago, when the coal fired power plants
were first required to install "scrubbers", they regulations stipulated
levels caps for emissions. They were also ordered to install specific
equipment to reach those levels. As it was, the equipment mandated was
egregiously costly and maintenance was enormous. It also created a lot of
toxic waste to be disposed of. It turned out that emissions could have been
as good or better using other means of emissions reductions with less cost
and less maintenance. That's why I'm very skeptical of the fallacies that
"without all these regulations, ...blah, blah, blah).



Anyways, unless you have something meaningful to contribute to this rather
than unwarranted insults, I will leave you to your rant.


My rant addresses so many people that become enamored with a pristine world
and completely miss the points that, first, every advantage has it's costs,
that actions have consequences including "Unintended Consequences".

I also notice a strong propensity for those who demand a risk free life, a
pristine world, and great prosperity, are often the most vocal when their
actions play out. It's an attitude that is understandable for children, but
inexcusable for adults. Hence my admonishment to Americans in general to
"grow up". Such childish perspective is becoming the rule, rather than the
exception. That there is no Santa Claus is apparently missed by wayyy to
many.

Rant to continue later :~)

Dave, I consider you an ally, not an adversary in this topic. If my take was
fuzzy (duh!), my apologies.

("Jay Honeck" wrote)
You've actually got me thinking about it, John. I only realized what a
perfect candidate I was for riding my bike to work after this thread.


Recumbent? Get bent? It's what I ride ....at the Y.

http://www.ihpva.org/FAQ/


Montblack

"JohnH" wrote in message
...
Matt Barrow wrote:
"JohnH" wrote in message
...

"In 1981, the U.S. had 324 refineries with a total capacity of
processing 18.6 million barrels of crude per day. Today just 149
refineries have
a daily capacity of 16.8 million barrels."

If we truly have a refinery shortage, why aren't people waiting in
lines to buy fuel?
Read the article; it states _why_ quite clearly.

It also gives a good picture of the trend.

Must have missed that - perhaps it was buired in all that stupid whiney
"banana" tripe.

So - again - what is the reason we aren't waiting in lines?

Maybe because the US imports refined FINISHED products (much more costly to
buy as well as transport). Maybe if your weren't so stupid and whiney you'd
have discovered that for yourself.

Jay Honeck wrote:

Then don't ride a bike if it's too hard for you; not everyone is capable
of it. I'm not sure how you felt this was directed to you anyway; I was
simply pointing out to Jay that a 4 mile commute is usually quite
practical via bicycle. If it's really bad weather, use another means or
better yet stay home or at the inn.


You've actually got me thinking about it, John. I only realized what a
perfect candidate I was for riding my bike to work after this thread.

Until this year, I was driving my kids to school each morning. Now, my son
is riding his bike to school, and my daughter and I walk to hers. There
really isn't any good reason NOT to ride my bike, other than time and
laziness.

And we actually are seriously discussing selling our home and moving into
the Inn next spring, at least for a while. Man, that commute would be hard
to take! :-)

Yea, especially if you had an upstairs room!

Matt

JohnH wrote:

"In 1981, the U.S. had 324 refineries with a total capacity of
processing 18.6 million barrels of crude per day. Today just 149
refineries have
a daily capacity of 16.8 million barrels."


If we truly have a refinery shortage, why aren't people waiting in lines to
buy fuel?

Because the increase in prices has stabilized the demand, for the moment
anyway. Lines will appear in the very near future, just as rolling
blackouts and brownouts began to appear a few years ago. We are running
out of energy generating capacity, be it liquid fuels or electricity.
We're just now seeing the leading edge of this problem, but if we don't
begin to dramatically increase production capacity or increase
conservation at a rate to keep the demand at current levels, we'll have
some serious issues in less than five years.


Matt