Aviation fuel - price of crude...

Two things to throw into your analysis:

1. China is just starting to drive. There's a lot of demand yet to happen
there. The Saudis could be siphoning gasoline straight out of puddles and it
wouldn't matter if demand continues to rise.

2. Right now most analysts estimate we are seeing about a $10/bbl "terrorism
premium." If a large portion of production shifted to Canada, then we would
see that premium decrease as less of the world's oil production is
concentrated in such high-risk areas.

I also wonder whether we're anywhere near the efficiency frontier with
regards to shale oil extraction technologies. So long as it's cheaper to go
divining for liquid petroleum we won't see maximum commercial investment in
this area. Most technologies don't reach full efficiency until they're
scaled into major commercial applications.

-cwk.

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...
Actually shale oil will be produced when it is economic to do so.
Assuming
that prices remain at $50, we will start seeing oil from tar sands and
shale. BTW the largest Saudi fields are now making about 60% water, the
days of cheap energy are behind us.

Mike
MU-2

Two things to throw into your analysis:

1. China is just starting to drive. There's a lot of demand yet to happen
there. The Saudis could be siphoning gasoline straight out of puddles and it
wouldn't matter if demand continues to rise.

2. Right now most analysts estimate we are seeing about a $10/bbl "terrorism
premium." If a large portion of production shifted to Canada, then we would
see that premium decrease as less of the world's oil production is
concentrated in such high-risk areas.

I also wonder whether we're anywhere near the efficiency frontier with
regards to shale oil extraction technologies. So long as it's cheaper to go
divining for liquid petroleum we won't see maximum commercial investment in
this area. Most technologies don't reach full efficiency until they're
scaled into major commercial applications.

-cwk.

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...
Actually shale oil will be produced when it is economic to do so.
Assuming
that prices remain at $50, we will start seeing oil from tar sands and
shale. BTW the largest Saudi fields are now making about 60% water, the
days of cheap energy are behind us.

Mike
MU-2

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

saving through conservation can be continued forever. Four years ago, GWB
decided not to increase the scheduled CAFE increase for automobiles. So
now, four years later, we have 50,000,000 cars which are getting about 10%
worse fuel economy than they would have if the increase was implemented.

My concern with legislated efficiency/consumption whether Kyoto or CAFE is
that while I suspect Teresa Heinz and Laurie David will always find enough
Benjamins in the couch cushions to gas up their Gulfstreams, I strongly
suspect that mere mortals like us will be unable to afford to fly anything
over 100HP, assuming of course they allow us to fly at all. Look at Europe-
I don't want that to be the future of GA.

-cwk.

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

saving through conservation can be continued forever. Four years ago, GWB
decided not to increase the scheduled CAFE increase for automobiles. So
now, four years later, we have 50,000,000 cars which are getting about 10%
worse fuel economy than they would have if the increase was implemented.

My concern with legislated efficiency/consumption whether Kyoto or CAFE is
that while I suspect Teresa Heinz and Laurie David will always find enough
Benjamins in the couch cushions to gas up their Gulfstreams, I strongly
suspect that mere mortals like us will be unable to afford to fly anything
over 100HP, assuming of course they allow us to fly at all. Look at Europe-
I don't want that to be the future of GA.

-cwk.

Exactly.

C Kingsbury wrote:
"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...


saving through conservation can be continued forever. Four years ago, GWB
decided not to increase the scheduled CAFE increase for automobiles. So
now, four years later, we have 50,000,000 cars which are getting about 10%
worse fuel economy than they would have if the increase was implemented.


My concern with legislated efficiency/consumption whether Kyoto or CAFE is
that while I suspect Teresa Heinz and Laurie David will always find enough
Benjamins in the couch cushions to gas up their Gulfstreams, I strongly
suspect that mere mortals like us will be unable to afford to fly anything
over 100HP, assuming of course they allow us to fly at all. Look at Europe-
I don't want that to be the future of GA.

-cwk.

Exactly.

C Kingsbury wrote:
"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...


saving through conservation can be continued forever. Four years ago, GWB
decided not to increase the scheduled CAFE increase for automobiles. So
now, four years later, we have 50,000,000 cars which are getting about 10%
worse fuel economy than they would have if the increase was implemented.


My concern with legislated efficiency/consumption whether Kyoto or CAFE is
that while I suspect Teresa Heinz and Laurie David will always find enough
Benjamins in the couch cushions to gas up their Gulfstreams, I strongly
suspect that mere mortals like us will be unable to afford to fly anything
over 100HP, assuming of course they allow us to fly at all. Look at Europe-
I don't want that to be the future of GA.

-cwk.

"C Kingsbury" wrote in message
link.net...

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

saving through conservation can be continued forever. Four years ago,
GWB
decided not to increase the scheduled CAFE increase for automobiles. So
now, four years later, we have 50,000,000 cars which are getting about
10%
worse fuel economy than they would have if the increase was implemented.

My concern with legislated efficiency/consumption whether Kyoto or CAFE is
that while I suspect Teresa Heinz and Laurie David will always find enough
Benjamins in the couch cushions to gas up their Gulfstreams, I strongly
suspect that mere mortals like us will be unable to afford to fly anything
over 100HP, assuming of course they allow us to fly at all. Look at
Europe-
I don't want that to be the future of GA.

-cwk.


Nobody does, what is your proposed solution?.

Mike
MU-2

"C Kingsbury" wrote in message
link.net...

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

saving through conservation can be continued forever. Four years ago,
GWB
decided not to increase the scheduled CAFE increase for automobiles. So
now, four years later, we have 50,000,000 cars which are getting about
10%
worse fuel economy than they would have if the increase was implemented.

My concern with legislated efficiency/consumption whether Kyoto or CAFE is
that while I suspect Teresa Heinz and Laurie David will always find enough
Benjamins in the couch cushions to gas up their Gulfstreams, I strongly
suspect that mere mortals like us will be unable to afford to fly anything
over 100HP, assuming of course they allow us to fly at all. Look at
Europe-
I don't want that to be the future of GA.

-cwk.


Nobody does, what is your proposed solution?.

Mike
MU-2

Mike Rapoport wrote:

Nobody does, what is your proposed solution?.

Here we are... right back to my original post where I mentioned a couple of
excellent ones. I'll list them and more he

1) Develop our energy reserves here on this continent. Liberals have
consistently blocked this effort thus prolonging the inevitable.

3) Build some additional refining capacity. Higher prices are due to higher
demand and he have not built a new refinery in some 30 years. Wait till
refineries switch to heating oil this winter and watch gas prices rise
further.

2) Enforce a consistent nationwide gasoline blend. Refineries have
to produce a multitude of blends for different parts of the country
which reduces production and delivery efficiency and availability and
increases costs.

4) Plan to build new nuclear power plants that can replace aging
(and in-efficient) fossil fuel plants. Technology marches on yet we
have done nothing in this area. All new (larger) Navy ships us
nuclear power these days and do it very well.

5) Offer significant (not paltry) tax incentives to people for adding
solar heating or power generation capability to their homes and
businesses.

6) Reduce the burden of massive government regulations in the
auto industry (and other industries for that matter) so that prices
can be more affordable for cars using hybrid or electric power. When
the cost of these vehicles becomes equal to or less than gasoline
vehicles people will by them.

All of this can be started IMMEDIATELY. The rest is continued research
into refining ideas that are now too impractical or expensive. To not
do these things is simply irresponsible.

Mike Rapoport wrote:

Nobody does, what is your proposed solution?.

Here we are... right back to my original post where I mentioned a couple of
excellent ones. I'll list them and more he

1) Develop our energy reserves here on this continent. Liberals have
consistently blocked this effort thus prolonging the inevitable.

3) Build some additional refining capacity. Higher prices are due to higher
demand and he have not built a new refinery in some 30 years. Wait till
refineries switch to heating oil this winter and watch gas prices rise
further.

2) Enforce a consistent nationwide gasoline blend. Refineries have
to produce a multitude of blends for different parts of the country
which reduces production and delivery efficiency and availability and
increases costs.

4) Plan to build new nuclear power plants that can replace aging
(and in-efficient) fossil fuel plants. Technology marches on yet we
have done nothing in this area. All new (larger) Navy ships us
nuclear power these days and do it very well.

5) Offer significant (not paltry) tax incentives to people for adding
solar heating or power generation capability to their homes and
businesses.

6) Reduce the burden of massive government regulations in the
auto industry (and other industries for that matter) so that prices
can be more affordable for cars using hybrid or electric power. When
the cost of these vehicles becomes equal to or less than gasoline
vehicles people will by them.

All of this can be started IMMEDIATELY. The rest is continued research
into refining ideas that are now too impractical or expensive. To not
do these things is simply irresponsible.