$1 billion BMS Ooops...

On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.

So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

Tom

2G wrote on 3/2/2021 7:25 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
lyhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 8:27:55 PM UTC-8, Eric Greenwell wrote:
2G wrote on 3/2/2021 7:25 PM:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 6:28:27 PM UTC-8, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 4:10:48 PM UTC-5, ProfJ wrote:
On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 14:42:01 UTC-7, wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/
Discus amongst yourselves...
Some comments:

- High current draw for VTO launches (Lilium) - IIRC they are planning to use supercapacitors to provide the current boost so that the batteries don't have to. A supercapacitor/LiPo combination makes a lot of sense for that problem.

- Electric vs. gas: a very experienced motorglider ferry pilot, who I am sure does not want to be named, once told me when discussing Stemmes: "I've had every known Stemme issue except the in-flight fire, I'm not looking forward to that one..." I side with Eric here - we have normalized all the hassle that goes with gas self-launchers. When we get mature technology electric self-launchers, they'll dominate. Current complaints about electric sound exactly like the complaints about electric cars, before Tesla got it right.
So how big is the electric glider market vs. electric car market? Things get done with proper research and funding. I don't see that happen for the glider market. I suggest you review David's presentation. He discussed this point.

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
lyhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

Wishful thinking duly noted. The development, deployment and long-term flight experience of aircraft takes time. Ten years is a good estimate for a single model such as the Antares. Its first flight was in 2003, so development must have started about 20 years ago. I think that in 5 to 10 years we will be thinking "Boy, those electric gliders looked promising at the time, but if we knew then what we know now I would never have bought one." Successful product development just can't be rushed.

On 2/24/2021 4:41 PM, Dave Nadler wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/

Discuss amongst yourselves...

I'm glad to see this has generated some good discussion, but there were
a few rather bizarre posts. To be extremely clear:

1) I'm not "hating" on anyone, and I sincerely wish success for the
manufacturers, even those who have behaved badly...

2) The purpose of the post, for those it seems lost on, was to
illustrate that even the big boys in industry with colossal resources at
their disposal have problems. This stuff (electronics in general and
certainly battery storage and propulsion systems) is not easy.

3) Because it is not easy, the manner in which engineering is approached
matters. A lot. I've spent decades unsnarling engineering problems of
all stripes, and certainly in gliding I've seen how the sausages are
made. And I've seen, and continue to see how the same mistakes are
repeated and repeated...

I hope this all has helped general understanding of the issues,
Best Regards, Dave

PS: Really now, How Hard Could It Be?

On Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 4:28:20 PM UTC-7, wrote:
On 2/24/2021 4:41 PM, Dave Nadler wrote:
https://insideevs.com/news/490300/hy...ll-82000-bevs/

Discuss amongst yourselves...

I'm glad to see this has generated some good discussion, but there were
a few rather bizarre posts. To be extremely clear:

1) I'm not "hating" on anyone, and I sincerely wish success for the
manufacturers, even those who have behaved badly...

2) The purpose of the post, for those it seems lost on, was to
illustrate that even the big boys in industry with colossal resources at
their disposal have problems. This stuff (electronics in general and
certainly battery storage and propulsion systems) is not easy.

3) Because it is not easy, the manner in which engineering is approached
matters. A lot. I've spent decades unsnarling engineering problems of
all stripes, and certainly in gliding I've seen how the sausages are
made. And I've seen, and continue to see how the same mistakes are
repeated and repeated...

I hope this all has helped general understanding of the issues,
Best Regards, Dave

PS: Really now, How Hard Could It Be?

I would appreciate hearing from you what problems you have had with your Antares if you are interested in sharing. Eric seems to think that all of these problems have been solved, but I am not convinced. In fact, significant new problems have materialized that weren't present in the Antares, like fires.

Tom

On 3/17/2021 11:59 PM, 2G wrote:
...significant new problems have materialized that weren't present in the Antares, like fires.

2 of 4 Antares in USA had notable fires about a decade back (also some
in Europe). These fires were from unspeakably bad electronics design and
nothing to do with the battery system. Fortunately both fires in USA
happened on the ground without too much drama (burned up an electronic
module without spreading).