Okay, so maybe flying *is* dangerous...

George Patterson wrote:
Roger wrote:

That doesn't make sense as commercial aircraft travel is considered
about the safest form of travel. Of course they could be including
crop dusters. PPL would not, or should not be in that category.

They said they're including all types of professional pilots. Crop dusters and
bush pilots included.


It isn't dangerous to go skydiving (1-in-10000 chance of dying) once.
But "being a regular skydiver" where one jumps 100 or perhaps 1000
times in a lifetime gives you a much less trivial chance of being
killed.

These numbers would be more interesting if they broke out airline
flying by regional/commuter versus longer-haul ops. My brother-in-law
flies 767s for UPS on international routes, but started out on a Beech
1900 with Mesa. At Mesa he might have made 6 or more flights in one
day, versus UPS where he might do 12 in a month. IIRC risk on 121
airlines is proportional to the # of TO/landings.

-cwk.

On 30 Aug 2005 06:01:00 -0700, wrote:


It isn't dangerous to go skydiving (1-in-10000 chance of dying) once.
But "being a regular skydiver" where one jumps 100 or perhaps 1000
times in a lifetime gives you a much less trivial chance of being
killed.

Curious.

If each jump carries a 1-in-10000 chance of dying, wouldn't the 1000th
jump also carry a 1-in-10000 chance of dying?

If one flips a fair coin, over the long run there is a 1-in-2 chance
of either side coming up. If one flips a fair coin 1 million times do
the odds of either side coming up change?

If each jump carries a 1-in-10000 chance of dying, wouldn't the 1000th
jump also carry a 1-in-10000 chance of dying?

Yes. But the odds of being dead before reaching the 10,000th jump
increase with each jump you make.

Jose
--
Quantum Mechanics is like this: God =does= play dice with the universe,
except there's no God, and there's no dice. And maybe there's no universe.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

On Tue, 30 Aug 2005 14:57:28 GMT, Jose
wrote:

If each jump carries a 1-in-10000 chance of dying, wouldn't the 1000th
jump also carry a 1-in-10000 chance of dying?

Yes. But the odds of being dead before reaching the 10,000th jump
increase with each jump you make.

The more times the coin turns up heads, the more likely the next toss
will be tails?

Actuary's numbers relate to populations, not individuals.

But you knew that. You just left out the smiley

Don

"Jim" wrote in message
...

It isn't dangerous to go skydiving (1-in-10000 chance of dying) once.
But "being a regular skydiver" where one jumps 100 or perhaps 1000
times in a lifetime gives you a much less trivial chance of being killed

Curious.

Not really.

If each jump carries a 1-in-10000 chance of dying, wouldn't
the 1000th jump also carry a 1-in-10000 chance of dying?

Yes, assuming the jumper survived the first 9999 jumps.

The probability of a person having successfully made 9999
jumps surviving his 10000th jump is very different (and less)
than the probability of a person who has made no jumps,
successfully making 10000 safe jumps.

The difference is that the first jumper's probability of the
first 9999 jumps are all 100% successfully, having been
made in the past.

If one flips a fair coin, over the long run there is a 1-in-2
chance of either side coming up.

Yes, but there isn't a 1-in-2 chance of flipping ten heads (say)
in a row. Except, of course, if one is improbable enough to
flip nine heads in a row, then the tenth head is 1-in-2.

If one flips a fair coin 1 million times do the odds of
either side coming up change?

One is not just loooking at the last flip, one is looking at
the accumulation of *all* the flips. For instance, it's no
good surviving the 10000th jump, if you didn't survive
the 7359th. :-) :-( :-S

"Don Tuite" wrote:

Actuary's numbers relate to populations, not individuals.

Does the parachute know whether 10,000 jumpers made one
jump each, or whether one jumper made 10,000 jumps?

--
Jeff Shirton jshirton at cogeco
dot ca

Keep thy airspeed up, lest the earth come from below
and smite thee. - William Kershner
Challenge me (Theophilus) for a game of chess at Chessworld.net!

On 30 Aug 2005 08:45:23 -0700, wrote:

"Jim" wrote in message
.. .

It isn't dangerous to go skydiving (1-in-10000 chance of dying) once.
But "being a regular skydiver" where one jumps 100 or perhaps 1000
times in a lifetime gives you a much less trivial chance of being killed

Curious.

Not really.


Maybe I should have written "Curious to me."?


If each jump carries a 1-in-10000 chance of dying, wouldn't
the 1000th jump also carry a 1-in-10000 chance of dying?

Yes, assuming the jumper survived the first 9999 jumps.


Yes.

The probability of a person having successfully made 9999
jumps surviving his 10000th jump is very different (and less)
than the probability of a person who has made no jumps,
successfully making 10000 safe jumps.


Well, I just don't see this. I'll have to think on it some more.
I've been inclined to see each event as independent of and
not influenced by any preceding events.

The difference is that the first jumper's probability of the
first 9999 jumps are all 100% successfully, having been
made in the past.

If one flips a fair coin, over the long run there is a 1-in-2
chance of either side coming up.

Yes, but there isn't a 1-in-2 chance of flipping ten heads (say)
in a row. Except, of course, if one is improbable enough to
flip nine heads in a row, then the tenth head is 1-in-2.


I'm missing this one too. I may not have a very good grasp
of probability theory.

If one flips a fair coin 1 million times do the odds of
either side coming up change?

One is not just loooking at the last flip, one is looking at
the accumulation of *all* the flips. For instance, it's no
good surviving the 10000th jump, if you didn't survive
the 7359th. :-) :-( :-S

"Don Tuite" wrote:

Actuary's numbers relate to populations, not individuals.

Does the parachute know whether 10,000 jumpers made one
jump each, or whether one jumper made 10,000 jumps?

Ah yes, but flying a small, tandem, amphibious aircraft hangared at my
particular airport, flown by a 50 something pilot with Commercial, IFR
and CFI ratings, is actually quite safe, statistically. In fact, I
don't believe there has EVER been a fatality in one of those!

wrote in message
oups.com...
"Jim" wrote in message
...

It isn't dangerous to go skydiving (1-in-10000 chance of dying) once.
But "being a regular skydiver" where one jumps 100 or perhaps 1000
times in a lifetime gives you a much less trivial chance of being killed

Curious.

Not really.

If each jump carries a 1-in-10000 chance of dying, wouldn't
the 1000th jump also carry a 1-in-10000 chance of dying?

Yes, assuming the jumper survived the first 9999 jumps.

The probability of a person having successfully made 9999
jumps surviving his 10000th jump is very different (and less)
than the probability of a person who has made no jumps,
successfully making 10000 safe jumps.



No, if the abolute odds of not surviving A jump are 1:10,000. The odds of
death are 1:10,000 on jump #1,#2,...#10000...#20000. The dice don't have a
memory. Which is exatly what you say below so I think you just mis-spoke
above.




The difference is that the first jumper's probability of the
first 9999 jumps are all 100% successfully, having been
made in the past.

If one flips a fair coin, over the long run there is a 1-in-2
chance of either side coming up.

Yes, but there isn't a 1-in-2 chance of flipping ten heads (say)
in a row. Except, of course, if one is improbable enough to
flip nine heads in a row, then the tenth head is 1-in-2.

If one flips a fair coin 1 million times do the odds of
either side coming up change?

One is not just loooking at the last flip, one is looking at
the accumulation of *all* the flips. For instance, it's no
good surviving the 10000th jump, if you didn't survive
the 7359th. :-) :-( :-S

"Don Tuite" wrote:

Actuary's numbers relate to populations, not individuals.

Does the parachute know whether 10,000 jumpers made one
jump each, or whether one jumper made 10,000 jumps?

--
Jeff Shirton jshirton at cogeco
dot ca

Keep thy airspeed up, lest the earth come from below
and smite thee. - William Kershner
Challenge me (Theophilus) for a game of chess at Chessworld.net!

"Doug" wrote in message
oups.com...
Ah yes, but flying a small, tandem, amphibious aircraft hangared at my
particular airport, flown by a 50 something pilot with Commercial, IFR
and CFI ratings, is actually quite safe, statistically. In fact, I
don't believe there has EVER been a fatality in one of those!


But Doug, you're not statistically relevant until you die in a crash and
burn. Then, because since relatively few people do crash and burn you will
have an effect on the statistics.

Think about it.

"Jim" wrote in message
...

The probability of a person having successfully made 9999
jumps surviving his 10000th jump is very different (and less)
than the probability of a person who has made no jumps,
successfully making 10000 safe jumps.

I've been inclined to see each event as independent
of and not influenced by any preceding events.

Well, in a case like this, it's not true. While each jump
taken in isolation has the same probability, the odds
of a successful 10,000th jump certainly *are* dependent
on having 9,999 successful jumps before hand.

If any of those previous 9,999 jumps are unsuccessful,
then the probability of a successful 10,000 jump is 0%.

Jeff Shirton jshirton at cogeco
dot ca

Keep thy airspeed up, lest the earth come from below
and smite thee. - William Kershner
Challenge me (Theophilus) for a game of chess at Chessworld.net!