Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera wrote:

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.

The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of the max (and we are
apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about 2000. Unless the author
believes that GPS receivers only became common after 2000, the user community
has already been through one solar max period.

Ron Wanttaja

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:44:32 -0700, Ron Wanttaja
wrote in
:

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera wrote:

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.

The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of the max (and we are
apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about 2000.

Of course, natural phenomena can be somewhat erratic, but you astute
analysis seems relatively consistent with International Space
Environment Service observations/projections:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Unless the author believes that GPS receivers only became common after
2000, the user community has already been through one solar max period.

Apparently it was Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University who raised
the concern, not the New Scientist author. But, you are correct about
having used GPS during the 2000 - 2003 peak period. I don't recall
any anomalous GPS behavior back then, but I do recall a solar storm
that caused my garage door opener to spontaneously open and close the
door repeatedly one day.

The aircraft had a dual King 660 FM system with GPS.
STRONG Dick Rutan - Voyager Flight Fun Facts Voyager's
flight was the first-ever, non-stop, unrefueled flight
around the world. It took place between December 14 and
December 23, 1986. ...
www.dickrutan.com/page2.html - 5k - Cached - Similar
pages

1986





"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:44:32 -0700, Ron Wanttaja
| wrote in
| :
|
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:
|
| How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only
became common
| during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar
flares will reach
| the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.
|
| The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of
the max (and we are
| apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about
2000.
|
| Of course, natural phenomena can be somewhat erratic, but
you astute
| analysis seems relatively consistent with International
Space
| Environment Service observations/projections:
| http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
|
| Unless the author believes that GPS receivers only became
common after
| 2000, the user community has already been through one
solar max period.
|
| Apparently it was Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University
who raised
| the concern, not the New Scientist author. But, you are
correct about
| having used GPS during the 2000 - 2003 peak period. I
don't recall
| any anomalous GPS behavior back then, but I do recall a
solar storm
| that caused my garage door opener to spontaneously open
and close the
| door repeatedly one day.
|

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:46:39 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
wrote in
:

The aircraft had a dual King 660 FM system with GPS.
STRONG Dick Rutan - Voyager Flight Fun Facts Voyager's
flight was the first-ever, non-stop, unrefueled flight
around the world. It took place between December 14 and
December 23, 1986. ...
www.dickrutan.com/page2.html - 5k - Cached - Similar
pages

1986

I'm sorry, but I fail to see how that relates to anything I wrote in
the article to which you are following up.

There a post about the age of GPS, I just pointed out that
it was commercially available and used in 1986. Our news
servers had some problems, your post was what I had visible.
I don't recall seeing any thing I wrote that should have
insulted you.



"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:46:39 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| wrote in
| :
|
| The aircraft had a dual King 660 FM system with GPS.
| STRONG Dick Rutan - Voyager Flight Fun Facts Voyager's
| flight was the first-ever, non-stop, unrefueled flight
| around the world. It took place between December 14 and
| December 23, 1986. ...
| www.dickrutan.com/page2.html - 5k - Cached -
Similar
| pages
|
| 1986
|
| I'm sorry, but I fail to see how that relates to anything
I wrote in
| the article to which you are following up.
|

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:05:05 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in :

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:44:32 -0700, Ron Wanttaja
wrote in
:

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera wrote:

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail.

The sun is on an 11-year cycle. If 2011 is the date of the max (and we are
apparently in the minimum now), the LAST max was about 2000.

Of course, natural phenomena can be somewhat erratic, but your astute
analysis seems relatively consistent with International Space
Environment Service observations/projections:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Unless the author believes that GPS receivers only became common after
2000, the user community has already been through one solar max period.

Apparently it was Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University who raised
the concern, not the New Scientist author. But, you are correct about
having used GPS during the 2000 - 2003 peak period. I don't recall
any anomalous GPS behavior back then, but I do recall a solar storm
that caused my garage door opener to spontaneously open and close the
door repeatedly one day.

SPACE WEATHER THREATENS GPS

As if we didn't have enough weather to worry about here on Earth,
scientists have confirmed what has long been anecdotally acknowledged
-- that solar flares play havoc with GPS signals. And with the FAA
moving steadily toward satellite-based technologies for the future of
airspace management, the warnings from last week's Space Weather
Enterprise Forum
(http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...04559768&EDATE)
take on increasing poignancy. "Society cannot become overly reliant on
technology without an awareness and understanding of the effects of
future space weather disruptions,'' Anthea Coster, Ph.D., MIT Haystack
Observatory, told attendees at the conference, which was held in
Washington, D.C. There is some good news, however. It appears WAAS
signals, the cornerstone of most of the new navigation protocols, are
somewhat less vulnerable to disruption.
http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archive...ll.html#194884

Larry Dighera wrote:
http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.
....
How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. ...

Of course this newsgroup was alive and well during the last solar
maximum and there were no widespread failures reported. Sam kept us
informed with the bulletins on current solar activity, but I noticed
only minor effects on my consumer-level GPS receivers. I still have
the tracklogs recorded in 2000 during the maximum and they don't
support the dire predictions of the above article.

On 25 Oct 2006 06:54:19 -0700, "peter" wrote in
.com:

I still have
the tracklogs recorded in 2000 during the maximum and they don't
support the dire predictions of the above article.

Agreed. But I did notice other radio controlled devices
malfunctioning.

FWIW, the last solar maximum occured around 2001, and GPS was in common
use then; I know I was using mine on a pretty regular basis then.

I don't recall any widespread disruptions. Not even slimspread
disruptions. :)

I'm thinking this may be much ado about nothing.

--Walt
Bozeman, Montana


Larry Dighera wrote:
http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of
the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may
not be practical, says Cerruti.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27

"Walt" wrote in message
oups.com...
FWIW, the last solar maximum occured around 2001, and GPS was in common
use then;


This is actually all global warming is. Hot spots in the sun.
Im not worried.


I don't recall any widespread disruptions. Not even slimspread
disruptions. :)

I'm thinking this may be much ado about nothing.

--Walt
Bozeman, Montana


Larry Dighera wrote:
http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of
the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may
not be practical, says Cerruti.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27