How much longer?

Al Borowski wrote:
On Apr 5, 12:47 pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?


In my case, I rent a nice, fairly new Australian "ultralight" (really
an LSA) for about $110 an hour. It burns just over 4 gallons/hour of
premium autogas, so if the price of fuel doubled, I'd only be out
another 20 dollars. In the scheme of things that isn't very much. A
full tank of fuel costs about $140 for over 6 hours of flight time.

When I tried going for my PPL I was paying $250 an hour for a clapped
out 172. I have no idea how people can justify the extra cost of GA in
Australia. Paying almost a weeks wages for a long cross country gets
old really fast.

Cheers,

Al
I know the feeling. I fly GA, in Cessnas and Pipers here in the US. When
I go to Australia I fly in a sportstar (LSA) as this is what I can
afford over there.

James.

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
news:6LBJj.53005$TT4.41626@attbi_s22...
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone
care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at ~3%
a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency fluctuations,
which have added something like a dollar to your cost of avgas. Most of
that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a recent
development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more expensive
today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

What does that mean? Unless we get our fiscal policies cleaned up, prices
on imported products (i.e. avgas) will continue to increase faster than
domestic products. Add that to the increasing energy demand in China and
India, which will add to inflationary pressures on fuel, and gasoline ain't
gonna be cheap.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at the
margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing around
these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have been the
first victims. Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time),
which is a function of fuel cost. Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals
on aircraft that have historically held their value well, like Commanches.
It takes a lot of gas to run a 250 hp engine.

Cirrus is doing well, as are several new aircraft manufacturers. If a
customer can afford a $350k airplane, s/he can afford the fuel for it. The
RV's are doing OK too. If you have $80-100k to invest over a 4 year build
period, you obviously have significant disposable income and when the
airplane is finished, you spend the bucks on flying rather than building.

To answer your question, though, smaller, cleaner airframes (RV's, LSA's,
etc) will continue to make flying affordable for the weekend flyer if the
weekend flyers' mission is 2 people and 50 pounds of baggage. BUT, it will
become expensive to carry around too much airframe - buzzing two people
around for hamburgers in a draggy airframe with a big engine isn't the wave
of the future...

KB

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at
~3% a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency
fluctuations, which have added something like a dollar to your cost of
avgas. Most of that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a
recent development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more
expensive today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

Yeah, I know all that -- but in real life you can't take that out of the
equation. Our dollar is in the dumpster, and we're all getting the pinch
because of it.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at
the margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing
around these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have
been the first victims.

Yep. The beaters are still on the field, but I don't see them fly anymore.
My A&P says that he's seeing an awful lot of planes coming in for annual
inspections with few -- or even NO -- hours since last year. There are an
awful lot of owners hanging on by their fingernails.

Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time), which is a
function of fuel cost.

I only know one private party still flying a twin, and most of the charters
have switched to turbines. Just a few years ago, they were all over the
airport.

Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals on aircraft that have
historically held their value well, like Commanches. It takes a lot of gas
to run a 250 hp engine.

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in value. Of
course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's market out there
right now.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Jay Honeck wrote:

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in
value. Of course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's
market out there right now.

Yes, I know. :-)

I've been wanting to buy an airplane since selling my 50% 182
partnership back in 1999 when my company nearly went bust, but the cost
was just too high given one kid in college, myself in graduate school
and another not far from college.

However, I've been looking at 182RGs (I want to finish my commercial)
and the prices have dropped dramatically the last couple of years.
There is one nearby me that was advertised for $95K a year ago, dropped
to 86K a few months ago and I just saw a new add for it at $77K! 77 is
my graduation year so maybe this is a sign! :-) Then again, I like the
number 70 also and I suspect by mid-summer when the recession is
officially declared, the price may get to that.

I came very close to buying an Arrow last winter, but the owner is
asking way above Vref and so far refuses to deal so that one likely
won't happen. It is more nicely equipped than the 182 (the 182 has a
high time engine and no GPS, but has LORAN, a FD, S-TEC 60 AP and other
goodies). I prefer the 182 for the additional interior room, extra
door, extra speed, range, useful load and high wing, but the Arrow would
be more economical to operate and I believe the gear is less troublesome
than the Cessna singles and it really is a very nice Arrow inside and
out. But $98K for a 77 Arrow is just way above market at present and I
really don't think the market for GA singles is ever going to return so
paying above market today is almost certainly money thrown away. Fuel
cost and future availability and the constant advance of regulations is
slowing dooming GA (low-end anyway) to the same fate as Europe.

Matt

On Sat, 05 Apr 2008 14:25:35 GMT, Matt Whiting

However, I've been looking at 182RGs

Terrific airplane.


I came very close to buying an Arrow last winter, but the owner is
asking way above Vref and so far refuses to deal so that one likely
won't happen. It is more nicely equipped than the 182 (the 182 has a
high time engine and no GPS, but has LORAN, a FD, S-TEC 60 AP and other
goodies). I prefer the 182 for the additional interior room, extra
door, extra speed, range, useful load and high wing, but the Arrow would
be more economical to operate and I believe the gear is less troublesome
than the Cessna singles

Not really. I never had a speck of trouble in 900 hours with a 172RG,
which has the same gear. Do proper maintenance (you'd do that anyway,
right?) and it will be fine.



and it really is a very nice Arrow inside and
out. But $98K for a 77 Arrow is just way above market at present and I
really don't think the market for GA singles is ever going to return so
paying above market today is almost certainly money thrown away.

Indeed. You should be able to make a great deal nowadays.

--
Dan
T182T at 4R4

I'm still paying more in Canada. When our dollar climbed up, prices
didn't lower either.

Forget the cost, full steam ahead!

John

Jay Honeck wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?

On Apr 4, 8:47*pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? * At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

JH, I know you dont like me responding to your posts but for the sake
of discussion I might add some perspective. I started flying at 14 and
I am mid 40ies now so I have been at this for some time. The one thing
that has been consistent in those 30 years is listening to complaints
about the cost of flying. I have been ask what it costs to own and
operate my airplanes and I allways tell people that I dont keep track
of it and even if it cost twice as much I would still fly because it
is worth it to me. I think it is more about getting the most out of
your flying and not so much worrying about the cost. There have been
plenty of " Weekend Pilots" who get bored and quit but for pilots who
challenge themselves with things like long XCs, advanced ratings,
aerobatics, etc., the cost will be less of an issue.


Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. *Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

This is a shocker, but I would bet that for alot of people on this
list they never thought they would see the wages they are making
either. Ive read that the average american works less minutes for a
gallon of gas now than in the 70s


That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. *So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? * Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--

I think the higher energy costs will foster better effeciency in
airframes and engines. Look at Diamond, Cirrus, and Columbia/Cessna. I
flew a 600 mile delivery flight on a kitplane I built and I trued at a
buck twenty on 3.9 gals/hr (With two adults and full bagage). Try that
with a 152. The first jet airliner I flew would carry 148 pax at .80
at 11000 lbs/hr (In cruise). The one I currently fly hauls 178 sheep
at .78 at under 7000 lbs/hr. These increases in efficiency have
trickled down to biz jets and larger GA and I dont think it will be
long before we see it at the sport pilot level. My prediction is that
we will go to OSH in a few years and see all manner of advancements in
technology.
Frank

"F. Baum" wrote ...
My prediction is that we will go to OSH in a few years and see
all manner of advancements in technology.

Frank,
I agree that tech advancements will continue to flood into aviation, but I
also think our GA pilot numbers will continue to shrink steadily.

I am most surprised by the feedback I got to a general question I posted a
few weeks back about club aircraft usage:

* ...25 (flying and named on insur policy) members per airplane
* would have seemed unmanageable 10 or 20 years ago. My club
* meetings turned into tirates when we first considered going from
* 10 to 12 per plane. Now I'm seeing member flying hours per year
* in the single digits, and a club almost needs 20 members per just
* to keep operational hours on the planes above 250 per year.
*
* What are you guys seeing as the recent numbers coming in from
* the clubs?
* a. Recent and past "hours per member per year"?
* b. Recent and past "hours per plane per year"?

I only got back 7 replies, but the trend was identical. Take away the
members actively seeking a rating and the avg was less than 12 hobbs hours
per year per member. Two different guys responded that more than half their
club members paid their dues but did not fly a single hour in 2007. The
other feedback I got was that most new members are coming in after selling
their own planes, or getting out of small partnerships.

Ten years ago the trend I saw was club members getting together and leaving
to buy their own airplane.

"F. Baum" wrote in message
...
On Apr 4, 8:47 pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
JH With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more
JH will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
JH will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

FB I am mid 40ies now so I have been at this for some time. The one thing
FB that has been consistent in those 30 years is listening to complaints
FB about the cost of flying. I have been ask what it costs to own and
FB operate my airplanes and I allways tell people that I dont keep track
FB of it and even if it cost twice as much I would still fly because it
FB is worth it to me. I think it is more about getting the most out of

Economies change. It's not so much the cost as it is the value. Flying no
matter what it costs only works as long as you can still put food on the
table.

I'm getting ready to fly to SnF and somone asked me how much it will cost.
My answer was: about the same cost as a first class ticket but a little
slower and a little more cost than driving my Suburban but about twice as
fast. That's for me flying solo.

For this kind of a trip, the question is go or not to go. Once I decide to
go, flying myself is a viable option that is not totally out of line.

I think weekend trips and family vacations fall in this same category. The
question is go or not to go. Flying yourself versus commercial or driving
have different costs and different tradeoffs but flying yourself is not the
clear looser. However, it's a larger expense and people tend to plan for and
save up for these kinds of trips.

Burger runs, brunch runs and just puttering around pose a different
question. Clearly, the purpose is to fly. Those kinds of flights will never
be justifiable and will diminish as people have less time and less
disposable income.

The problem with flying is that the more frequent, shorter, harder to
justify flights are necessary to keep skills up. There is a definite
threshold where you have to have enough time and money to keep the basic
skills up so that the occasional, justifiable trip is possible.

Parents that are properly engaged with their kids and well enough off want
to do things to pull their kids into the real world. Weekend trips to
explore the world are an important part of their children's development.
Those trips take time and cost money.

Again, the question is go or no-go. Once a decision is made to take the
family away for the weekend, flying is not that unaffordable.

As pilots, I think that we can do a lot more to support each other. If I fly
once a month or less because I can't afford to fly more frequently, my
skills are rusty everytime I get in the plane. But, if I fly with others
several other times a month, the whole experience helps keep my skills and
attitude up.

Heading to the airport alone? Call up a fellow pilot and invite him along.
It's more fun and cheaper for all.
------------------------------
Travis
Lake N3094P
PWK

JH, I know you dont like me responding to your posts but for the sake
of discussion I might add some perspective.

Thanks for that, Frank. I always appreciate your aviation-related posts.

Complaining about the cost of flying. Yes, everyone has always made a
hobby out of bitching about the high price of aviation -- but we've never
seen fuel costs soar so much in such a short period, especially not at a
time when wages are stagnant or declining.

I, too, will always fly, no matter the cost. (Remember, you're talking to a
guy who sold his plasma for flight time) But as fuel costs continue to
rise our flight time will diminish -- and at some level it will become
impossible to do much more than fly the pattern.

I just don't know what that level will be.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"