WAS: How safe is it, really?

G.R. Patterson III wrote
Andrew Gideon wrote:

That statement was made during an ASF presentation I attended a while ago.
It puzzled me. Why would a IR pilot fly VFR into IMC?


I'm not sure myself, but I do remember an incident that was presented in a
safety videotape. The pilot involved intended an IFR flight from Frederick, MD
to the west. She was delayed in a business meeting and discovered when she got
to the airport that her flight plan had expired. Rather than file a new one, she
took off VFR under low ceilings intending to file in the air.

Frederick is under the control of the Baltimore ATC. The ground rises to the
west. Baltimore wouldn't clear her until they could pick her up on radar, and
you have to get pretty high for them to do that in that area. While trying to
get clearance and climbing to avoid terrain, the windshield went opaque.

She came out of the clouds in a spiral at over a 70 degree bank, recovered a few
hundred feet above the ground, and returned to Frederick to file a flight plan.

Is there some part of this story that I'm missing? Apparently she
almost immediately lost control of the plane once she got into
the clouds. So when she gets down on the ground she files a
flight plan and presumably then goes right back up into the same
clouds.
What assurance is there that she won't again become disoriented?

"Happy Dog" wrote in message
...
"Newps" wrote in message
Happy Dog wrote:

Got a cite?

AOPA.org

Can you be a bit more specific? I assume that you have a reference in
mind.

Search for nall.


The only thing that makes sense to me is the attiutde that "I have the
rating, I can always get a clearance."

Makes sense, how? The hardest time to get a clearance is when a bunch
of
people need one at once.

They don't die trying to get a clearance, they never bother to try.

Again, you have some stats on this? Are you saying that, in almost all
cases, IFR pilots just fly into IMC and keep going until they hit
something?
Or is it mostly scud-running?

moo

Dave Stadt wrote:
Takeoff and climb is not a cause of accident.

Perhaps you mean that 18% occur during takeoff and climb,
which is something very different than cause.

Simplistically we could claim that takeoff causes 100% of
accidents, since if you hadn't taken off there would have
been no accident. This is like claiming getting out of bed
in the morning as the cause for 100% of traffic accidents
(and aviation and most other accidents for that matter).

Cheers CV


Go read the Nall report then come back once you have educated yourself. If
you don't believe you can get killed during the takeoff and climb portion of
flight you should stay far away from airports.

Go back to primary school, take some reading classes and come
back when you have educated yourself with basic reading skills.
If you are incapable of comprehending simple everyday sentences
you should stay away from newsgroups.

Regards CV

"CV" wrote in message
...
Dave Stadt wrote:
Takeoff and climb is not a cause of accident.

Perhaps you mean that 18% occur during takeoff and climb,
which is something very different than cause.

Simplistically we could claim that takeoff causes 100% of
accidents, since if you hadn't taken off there would have
been no accident. This is like claiming getting out of bed
in the morning as the cause for 100% of traffic accidents
(and aviation and most other accidents for that matter).

Cheers CV


Go read the Nall report then come back once you have educated yourself.
If
you don't believe you can get killed during the takeoff and climb
portion of
flight you should stay far away from airports.

Go back to primary school, take some reading classes and come
back when you have educated yourself with basic reading skills.
If you are incapable of comprehending simple everyday sentences
you should stay away from newsgroups.

Regards CV

I will leave it at "Accident causes single engine fixed gear."

Happy Dog wrote:


Again, you have some stats on this? Are you saying that, in almost all
cases, IFR pilots just fly into IMC and keep going until they hit something?
Or is it mostly scud-running?

Apparently the IFR pilot will just keep scud running into ever worsening
conditions and then hit something or lose control. The thought is in
the back of their mind that I'll just get a clearance if it gets bad.

Peter wrote:

Is there some part of this story that I'm missing?

Transition to flying by instruments when you've been flying visually is not
simple and takes time. The airlines learned this in the 30s and will have one
pilot already on the gauges during takeoff when the aircraft will be in IMC
shortly.

An instrument rated pilot goes on the gauges before entering IMC and can be
expected to do well at it. Those who enter IMC unexpectedly may lose control of
the aircraft during the transition to instrument flight.

George Patterson
If a man gets into a fight 3,000 miles away from home, he *had* to have
been looking for it.

G.R. Patterson III wrote:
Peter wrote:

Is there some part of this story that I'm missing?


Transition to flying by instruments when you've been flying visually is not
simple and takes time. The airlines learned this in the 30s and will have one
pilot already on the gauges during takeoff when the aircraft will be in IMC
shortly.

An instrument rated pilot goes on the gauges before entering IMC and can be
expected to do well at it. Those who enter IMC unexpectedly may lose control of
the aircraft during the transition to instrument flight.

I'd still be concerned to fly IMC without reasonable confidence in the
ability to recover from any disturbance that causes momentary loss of
control. And in the case cited it doesn't sound as if the entrance into
IMC should have been that unexpected.

"Peter" wrote in message
G.R. Patterson III wrote:
Transition to flying by instruments when you've been flying visually is
not
simple and takes time. The airlines learned this in the 30s and will have
one
pilot already on the gauges during takeoff when the aircraft will be in
IMC
shortly.

An instrument rated pilot goes on the gauges before entering IMC and can
be
expected to do well at it. Those who enter IMC unexpectedly may lose
control of
the aircraft during the transition to instrument flight.

I'd still be concerned to fly IMC without reasonable confidence in the
ability to recover from any disturbance that causes momentary loss of
control.

Aerobatics under the hood.

And in the case cited it doesn't sound as if the entrance into
IMC should have been that unexpected.

It isn't unexpected. It's denied. This scenario happens to everyone that
flies in marginal weather, especially at night. If you're VFR, one
shouldn't *have* to be flying almost solely by the gauges. So, as the
weather gets worse, instead of acknowledging the defeat of their visual /
balance sensory systems, the pilot tries ever harder to maintain visual
reference. It takes discipline and training to make the correct decision as
to when you're no longer in VMC, whether you're legal or not. (And, if
you're not IFR, you aren't. But, too bad. Get over it and deal.) Hazy
nights with no moon, in unpopulated areas are an invitation to trouble
whether you're flying under VFR or IFR. It's so easy to be using some
random light source (a streetlight or building light, bright star, etc.) as
a reference. It works fine until the pilot is distracted for a moment and
then mistakenly chooses some other light source at a slightly different
angle as a reference. The pilot, now thinking that the difference in angle
is due to their wings not being level, begins a set of manoeuvres based on
erroneous information. If the error isn't quickly, the results are, at
best, sobering. I've personally experienced something like this when, on a
night X/C in a deserted area, no moon, haze, I mistook another aircraft for
a bright star. Now, the unobscurred moon or an unmistakable mass of bright
lights on the ground, like a city, are the only visual refs I trust at
night. And, even then, at the first hint of upcoming IMC (it's often like
looking for a ghost or a cloaked Romulan Vessel by noticing subtle anomalies
in the sky ahead) I'm psyched to transition to instruments.

le moo

"Newps" wrote in message
...


Happy Dog wrote:


Again, you have some stats on this? Are you saying that, in almost all
cases, IFR pilots just fly into IMC and keep going until they hit
something?
Or is it mostly scud-running?

Apparently the IFR pilot will just keep scud running into ever worsening
conditions and then hit something or lose control. The thought is in
the back of their mind that I'll just get a clearance if it gets bad.

How would anyone know this? Do they record their back-of-mind thoughts
before pancaking into a mountain?

Jeremy Lew wrote:
"Newps" wrote in message
...


Happy Dog wrote:


Again, you have some stats on this? Are you saying that, in almost all
cases, IFR pilots just fly into IMC and keep going until they hit

something?

Or is it mostly scud-running?

Apparently the IFR pilot will just keep scud running into ever worsening
conditions and then hit something or lose control. The thought is in
the back of their mind that I'll just get a clearance if it gets bad.


How would anyone know this? Do they record their back-of-mind thoughts
before pancaking into a mountain?



Yes. At the military desk.