How much longer?

"Jay Honeck" wrote in
news1eKj.55740$TT4.32970@attbi_s22:

JH, I know you dont like me responding to your posts but for the sake
of discussion I might add some perspective.

Thanks for that, Frank. I always appreciate your aviation-related
posts.

Complaining about the cost of flying. Yes, everyone has always
made a hobby out of bitching about the high price of aviation -- but
we've never seen fuel costs soar so much in such a short period,
especially not at a time when wages are stagnant or declining.

I, too, will always fly, no matter the cost. (Remember, you're talking
to a guy who sold his plasma for flight time) But as fuel costs
continue to rise our flight time will diminish -- and at some level it
will become impossible to do much more than fly the pattern.

I just don't know what that level will be.


That's because you are an idiot.


Bertie

Jay Honeck wrote:

I, too, will always fly, no matter the cost. (Remember, you're talking
to a guy who sold his plasma for flight time)

I knew I was missing a revenue source! Thanks, Jay.

Let me see.....how many pints equals 1 hour of flight time?

Al
Spokane Wa
1964 Skyhawk

Let me see.....how many pints equals 1 hour of flight time?

Back in "the day" I could get about 30 minutes of flight time in a clapped
out Cherokee 140 for a unit of plasma.

Now, that's probably down to 15 minutes...although I haven't checked the
price of plasma in the last decade...

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

One thing I have noticed at the lake we frequent: The nearby marina
day-use docks used to be filled every weekend with the "big boat" crowd
from the town about 25 miles up the lake. Now there's always room for
our little 18-footer. I think those folks realized that it's a couple
hundred dollars for the fuel to get to and from. They're just hanging
out in their slips instead and not starting those engines.

Kind of similar to the $100-200 hamburger flight.

Al
Spokane Wa
1964 Skyhawk

On Apr 4, 9:47*pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? * At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. *Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. *So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? * Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Well that's still only 2 bucks more than auto gas.

$2 more for fuel compared to a car is a small price compared to the
rest of the expenses of owning a plane.

If gas reaches $10 a gallon before the rest of the economy catches up
to that inflation everything will come to a grinding halt and the
masses won't have food in their grocery stores. Aviation will be far
down on the list of your concerns.

I am an ancient ex-pilot who lost his medical 30 years ago. Took a
senimental trip to the local (private) strip a few weeks ago for the first
time in years. Shot the bull with several guys at the shack for a while. One
of the older guys was active there when I was still flying. He mentioned
that back then, any pretty weekend day, there was always 2-3 aircraft
puttering around the strip, shooting landings or just enjoying. While the
number of aircraft hangered there was about the same (20-30), the strip was
pretty much dead by comparison. There was 2-3 guys in their hangers working
on their planes, there was not the sound of a single engine.

His guess as to why? Just too expensive nowdays to just climb into the plane
at will and fly for the sheer joy of flight a couple times a week like we
used to do. Just staying at an acceptable level of competency was expensive
enough. He said that few of the pilots there could fly without an eye to the
cost.

He mentioned that back then, any pretty weekend day, there was always 2-3
aircraft puttering around the strip, shooting landings or just enjoying.
While the number of aircraft hangered there was about the same (20-30),
the strip was pretty much dead by comparison. There was 2-3 guys in their
hangers working on their planes, there was not the sound of a single
engine.

My wife and I still fly a couple of times per week, and that's true
everywhere we go now. Places we used to always see/hear airplanes are
eerily quiet now.

It's weird -- supposedly Cirrus is selling all these new airplanes, but I
sure don't know where in hell they are flying. We flew to Florida and back
two weeks ago, and rarely saw/heard anything smaller than a King Air.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 2008-04-04 19:47:30 -0700, "Jay Honeck" said:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we
paid over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought
I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher
must gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?
Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur
in America?

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation,
even if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the
complaints louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on
an airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers
will simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free
year's fuel. Or more.

--
Waddling Eagle
World Famous Flight Instructor

"C J Campbell" wrote in message
news:2008040618011616807-christophercampbell@hotmailcom...
On 2008-04-04 19:47:30 -0700, "Jay Honeck"
said:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd
see.

What were you paying in the past? What % of your operating expense is gas?

Try $5.11 everyday (CYS).


That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?

If you use an airplane for business, you can't hang up the headphones. OTOH,
I'm expanding my business into the oil producing regions where the RE market
is still pretty good (though mortgages are harder to get).

Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in
America?

When it's too expensive to pursue as a HOBBY?

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation, even
if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the complaints
louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on an
airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers will
simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free year's
fuel. Or more.

Operating cost is early 2007 were $185 an hour and fuel for me was an
average of $3.78; now it's $5.11 - at 15GPH my new cost is $20 more an hour
($205). My TOTAL cost is 11% higher.

Fortunately, I can just adjust my margins to match and my tax accountant has
new numbers to work with.

Matt Barrow
Performance Homes, LLC
Cheyenne, WY

In article "Matt W. Barrow" writes:

"C J Campbell" wrote
Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation, even
if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the complaints
louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on an
airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers will
simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free year's
fuel. Or more.

Operating cost is early 2007 were $185 an hour and fuel for me was an
average of $3.78; now it's $5.11 - at 15GPH my new cost is $20 more an hour
($205). My TOTAL cost is 11% higher.

Fortunately, I can just adjust my margins to match and my tax accountant has
new numbers to work with.

The problem is that costs go up for more than just gas. The local airport
had been raising their tie-down rates tied to the consumer price index, though
they are now talking of raising it much faster than that. Even tied to CPI,
the price of energy, food, etc., affect the price of tie-downs.

The mechanic needs to buy gasoline to get to work, and live his life. He
needs to buy food, clothes, etc. As these become more expensive, he has to
raise his prices to maintain his margins.

Those who manufacture and deliver aircraft parts need to raise their prices,
because their costs have gone up, both for the product, and for basic survival.

The food went up because the folks who deliver it pay more for gas, and for
everything else they need; the folks who retail it likewise have higher costs.
Even the folks who farm it need to fuel the tractors, feed themselves, buy
those pesky clothes, etc. They need to charge more. Conversion of food crops
to fuel crops for ethanol makes the food problem worse, but pushing up food
prices helps the farmers some.

When the price of energy goes up, so does a lot of other stuff that depends
on it, directly or indirectly.

For those who cannot pass on their increased costs, the choices are fly
cheaper, fly less, or don't fly at all.

I belive that we could make energy less expensive in this country, if we
had the will to do so.

Alan