First Time Buyer. Help!

On 8-Apr-2004, "Richard Kaplan" wrote:

I have met more pilots than I can possibly remember who have been
surprised either positively or negatively regarding how their expectation
of
airplane practicality differed from reality.

The fact is that no matter what someone may be advised weather
patterns, it takes the experience of actually renting a car to drive the
family home
from Thanksgiving dinner for it to hit home what the limitations of an
airplane are. Going on a family vacation by general aviation takes a
certain sense of adventure and spontaneity from a family which is more
realistically experienced than imagined; some kids love the adventure and
others do very poorly with sudden changes in plan. Some kids love flying
in an airplane and others don't. Some spouses are enthusiastic about
flying
but develop motion sickness; others are so thrilled at visiting family
easier that they become instant aviation enthusiasts.

I am not just guessing here... I have seen this happen many times.


Without IFR capability in the pilot and the airplane one cannot rely on
using an airplane for on-schedule X-C trips lasting more than a few hours.
That's not to say they can't be done safely -- IF a VFR-only pilot is
willing to wait out weather (maybe for several days) or settle for alternate
transportation home.

The situation changes significantly with an instrument rating. Really bad
weather may still disrupt your schedule, but there is a wide range of
weather conditions in which VFR flight would be suicidal while IFR is quite
safe. In the 30 years or so since I got my instrument ticket, I can recall
only one trip I couldn't complete due to weather. (Some delays, but only
once did I have to find an alternative ride home. That one was due to
widespread moderate to severe icing.)

-Elliott Drucker

I would point out that IFR cross country being safe is true only when
you have an all-weather airplane available that you are rated in AND you
have the experience and currency to safely fly it. Many see the
instrument rating as the "holy grail" and then are disappointed to learn
the the rental Archer is not suddenly impervious to weather events just
because they have an instrument rating.

In the 30 years or so since I got my instrument ticket, I can recall
only one trip I couldn't complete due to weather. (Some delays, but only
once did I have to find an alternative ride home. That one was due to
widespread moderate to severe icing.)

Only 1 cancellation in 30 years? I won't argue for a second that you
were not able to do this. If you are prepared to wait LONG enough, any
adverse weather will eventually move on. What makes the equation tricky
is when the family is sitting in a strange FBO for 8 hours and the
weather only improves a little bit. You (/your family) may personally be
able to sit it out for quite a while, maybe even overnight or 2 full
days. But, add a "schedule back home" and kids/spouse and you are no
longer the sole decision maker on what is reasonable. I suspect most
people, especially those toting family/others will reach the "buster"
point many more times than you did flying that many years.

I believe the dispatch rate for the average non-deiced piston single
spam can goes from about 50% VFR to about 75% IFR. I can believe a much
higher rate if you are talking about a fully equipped turboprop flying
around Arizona. The typical line rental here in the Chicago area will
not be able to maintain your ratio of successfully flown (safe) flights.

I agree it is suicidal (or patently stupid) to knowingly fly into IFR
conditions without a rating. But having the rating does not make IFR
conditions automatically "safe" (and I believe nobody is suggesting
otherwise). Thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings/non-currency usually
present various degrees of risk to the IFR pilot. Again, many can be
mitigated by the proper equipment. A CATIIIc equipped airliner can be
thought of as having a pretty high dispatch rate in relative safety WITH
a properly trained and current crew on board armed and safe operating
procedures (aka "the company manual") and current weather/planning.
Change any of those parameters and I believe safety begins to erode. At
some point, the instrument rating does not mean anything over a VFR-only
ticket (thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings) when you fly a basic piston
single.

Good Luck,
Mike




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On 10-Apr-2004, Mike Spera wrote:

I would point out that IFR cross country being safe is true only when
you have an all-weather airplane available that you are rated in AND you
have the experience and currency to safely fly it. Many see the
instrument rating as the "holy grail" and then are disappointed to learn
the the rental Archer is not suddenly impervious to weather events just
because they have an instrument rating.


You are right about instrument currency, of course. But if you refuse to
fly in weather until experienced, how will you become experienced? As to
the airplane's capabilities, what is really required is that equipment be
more than a match for the weather at hand and that critical systems be
backed up. IFR is obviously a much better deal in your own airplane where
you can assure proper maintenance and equipment level.



Only 1 cancellation in 30 years? I won't argue for a second that you
were not able to do this. If you are prepared to wait LONG enough, any
adverse weather will eventually move on. What makes the equation tricky
is when the family is sitting in a strange FBO for 8 hours and the
weather only improves a little bit. You (/your family) may personally be
able to sit it out for quite a while, maybe even overnight or 2 full
days. But, add a "schedule back home" and kids/spouse and you are no
longer the sole decision maker on what is reasonable. I suspect most
people, especially those toting family/others will reach the "buster"
point many more times than you did flying that many years.

What I meant (and though I made clear) is that I have only once had to
abandon my airplane away from home base due to weather. (I have had to do
it a couple of other times due to mechanical problems.) A much higher
number of trips were cancelled (before leaving home base) because of
weather. I have also had any number of delays, some for hours. But I have
also had similar weather delays when using the airlines. Many of my trips
included family members.


I believe the dispatch rate for the average non-deiced piston single
spam can goes from about 50% VFR to about 75% IFR. I can believe a much
higher rate if you are talking about a fully equipped turboprop flying
around Arizona. The typical line rental here in the Chicago area will
not be able to maintain your ratio of successfully flown (safe) flights.

I would say my IFR dispatch rate has been significantly better than 75%. If
I relied on rental aircraft your figure might have been about right, but I
have always had my own plane. By far, the biggest reason for cancellation
has been icing, which is a year-round consideration here in the Pacific
Northwest. Widespread areas of thunderstorms and/or low ceilings are rare.




I agree it is suicidal (or patently stupid) to knowingly fly into IFR
conditions without a rating. But having the rating does not make IFR
conditions automatically "safe" (and I believe nobody is suggesting
otherwise). Thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings/non-currency usually
present various degrees of risk to the IFR pilot. Again, many can be
mitigated by the proper equipment. A CATIIIc equipped airliner can be
thought of as having a pretty high dispatch rate in relative safety WITH
a properly trained and current crew on board armed and safe operating
procedures (aka "the company manual") and current weather/planning.
Change any of those parameters and I believe safety begins to erode. At
some point, the instrument rating does not mean anything over a VFR-only
ticket (thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings) when you fly a basic piston
single.

You are of course correct that an instrument ticket should not be considered
a license to fly in the same weather conditions tackled by professional
crews in heavy turbine equipment. However, I also think that the "gap" in
weather conditions that can safely be dealt with between VFR and "basic" IFR
is substantial, and encompasses the majority of days in most places.

--
-Elliott Drucker

In article , Mike Spera
wrote:

I have owned a basic trainer for 10 years. Cherokee 140, no autopilot,
no spherics, no POWER. So, I am pretty limited. Single pilot IFR without
any automation in a platform that is not all that stable keeps me VERY
busy just keeping up with the airplane. Maybe with an A/P. spherics, a
GROUND based radar picture, 100 more HP, and deice equipment, I would
feel more in control.

The nice thing about the cherokee 140 as an instrument platform
is that it isn't that hard to stay ahead of the plane. Add
the complexity and speed of an additional 100 hp, and it'll be
easier to let it get away from you.

(I also have owned my cherokee 140 for 10 years).

--
Bob Noel

wrote in message
...

safe. In the 30 years or so since I got my instrument ticket, I can
recall
only one trip I couldn't complete due to weather. (Some delays, but only
once did I have to find an alternative ride home. That one was due to
widespread moderate to severe icing.)

That depends on what airplane you fly, where you fly, and what you consider
to be a delay.

If you try flying on a winter vacation from Pennsylvania to Florida in
January in a non-known-ice airplane, you could easily be delayed 3 days each
way.

If you try flying in the Northeast on Thanksgiving - a transition time when
you can experience thunderstorms, icing, thundersnow, or any combination --
you can easily be delayed by a couple of days in any piston airplane,
especially one without icing equipment and without weather detection
equipment.

--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Mike Spera" wrote in message
...

I believe the dispatch rate for the average non-deiced piston single
spam can goes from about 50% VFR to about 75% IFR. I can believe a much
higher rate if you are talking about a fully equipped turboprop flying
around Arizona. The typical line rental here in the Chicago area will
not be able to maintain your ratio of successfully flown (safe) flights.


I couldn't agree more.



--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

wrote in message
...

What I meant (and though I made clear) is that I have only once had to
abandon my airplane away from home base due to weather. (I have had to do
it a couple of other times due to mechanical problems.) A much higher
number of trips were cancelled (before leaving home base) because of

That makes a lot more sense. So what you are saying is that you have
abandoned a good number of trips and that you have delayed your return on
others. People need to experience this and see how it realistically fits
with their family lifestyle before buying an airplane. Maybe they will
decide to just rent. Or maybe they will decide to save up for a known-ice
Mooney. Or buy an airplane with weather datalink already installed. Etc.
Etc.

weather. I have also had any number of delays, some for hours. But I
have
also had similar weather delays when using the airlines. Many of my trips

The dispatch rate flying commerical is way, way higher than my airplane
which is well-equipped for IFR by GA standards --- known-ice, radar,
spherics, weather datalink. There are advantages afforded by the speed,
service ceiling, climb rate, and redundancy of a transport category airplane
that I simply cannot compete with.

If you are getting dispatch rates with a piston airplane which come anywhere
close to that of an airliner then you are flying trips you shouldn't be
flying.

In fact, the dispatch rate of commercial airliners exceeds my dispatch rate
by *car* for cross-country trips.

crews in heavy turbine equipment. However, I also think that the "gap" in
weather conditions that can safely be dealt with between VFR and "basic"
IFR
is substantial, and encompasses the majority of days in most places.

A lot of this depends on the mission.

Based in the Northeast my dispatch rate on week-long family vacations with a
fudge factor built in for departure and arrival is almost 100% -- I once
cancelled a trip due to a double-hurricane coming up the east coast.

My dispatch rate for weekend trips is about 90%.

My dispatch rate for business trips when I MUST be there at 10AM is about
50% -- the risk is too high that fog will not clear or I will need to go
missed and divert etc. Get-there-itis pressure is too high.



--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

On 11-Apr-2004, "Richard Kaplan" wrote:

What I meant (and though I made clear) is that I have only once had to
abandon my airplane away from home base due to weather. (I have had to
do
it a couple of other times due to mechanical problems.) A much higher
number of trips were cancelled (before leaving home base) because of

That makes a lot more sense. So what you are saying is that you have
abandoned a good number of trips and that you have delayed your return on
others. People need to experience this and see how it realistically fits
with their family lifestyle before buying an airplane. Maybe they will
decide to just rent. Or maybe they will decide to save up for a known-ice
Mooney. Or buy an airplane with weather datalink already installed.
Etc.
Etc.


Well, in 30 years the number of trips I have cancelled due to weather has
been "a good number", but on average I'd say maybe one or two per year.
Usually it's due to widespread icing over the Cascades.



I have also had any number of delays, some for hours. But I
have also had similar weather delays when using the airlines.

The dispatch rate flying commerical is way, way higher than my airplane
which is well-equipped for IFR by GA standards --- known-ice, radar,
spherics, weather datalink. There are advantages afforded by the speed,
service ceiling, climb rate, and redundancy of a transport category
airplane that I simply cannot compete with.

Weather delays in airline flying are common, not because the airplanes and
crews can't handle the weather but because ATC and airport capacity at the
few hub airports are constrained when thunderstorms and/or low ceilings are
an issue. For most of my missions, ATC capacity is not an issue, so delays
are at my discretion. The good news about flying your own plane is that it
is ready to go as soon as weather permits. No missed connections. And of
course you have the flexibility to select a route that bypasses limited
areas of bad weather. United can't decide to change its hub to Indianapolis
when a line of thunderstorms causes massive delays in Chicago.



If you are getting dispatch rates with a piston airplane which come
anywhere close to that of an airliner then you are flying trips you
shouldn't be
flying.


Depends upon how you define dispatch rate, given the vastly greater schedule
flexibility of flying your own plane. If I suspect there may be weather
delays I can leave earlier than planned. Can't do that on the airlines. I
can often choose a route and/or fuel stop that avoids weather. Can't do
that on the airlines. I can take a 3 hour lunch to let a line of storms
pass. The airlines may be forced to do that, but it will usually mean
missed connections. All that said, the airlines still offer higher
reliability of safely getting to where you want to go more or less when you
want to be there, but if you use the flexibility inherent in flying your own
light airplane (NOT a rental!), the difference isn't all THAT huge.



crews in heavy turbine equipment. However, I also think that the "gap"
in weather conditions that can safely be dealt with between VFR and
"basic"
IFR is substantial, and encompasses the majority of days in most places.

A lot of this depends on the mission.

Based in the Northeast my dispatch rate on week-long family vacations with
a fudge factor built in for departure and arrival is almost 100% -- I once
cancelled a trip due to a double-hurricane coming up the east coast.

My dispatch rate for weekend trips is about 90%.

My dispatch rate for business trips when I MUST be there at 10AM is about
50% -- the risk is too high that fog will not clear or I will need to go
missed and divert etc. Get-there-itis pressure is too high.

If I MUST be there by 10 AM and there is a possibility of morning weather
problems I go the day before. I would do that on the airlines as well if
there was a possibility of widespread fog in the morning that will keep even
the airlines on the ground. You are right about the need to take steps to
reduce "get-there-itis" pressure.

--
-Elliott Drucker

wrote in message
...

missed connections. All that said, the airlines still offer higher
reliability of safely getting to where you want to go more or less when
you
want to be there, but if you use the flexibility inherent in flying your
own
light airplane (NOT a rental!), the difference isn't all THAT huge.

I don't count a flight being cancelled by airlines and getting there 6 hours
later as a cancellation -- you still get there.

Airlines can, indeed, plan routes around weather; in fact, an airliner at
500 knots can do this much, much easier than I can do at 160 knots.

The difference between airline reliability and general aviation realiability
is VERY significant anywhere except the Southwest U.S. Also Florida is
very reliable except during the afternoon in the 6-month rainy season.

Especially if you fly a non-deiced airplane, you can be grounded for several
days in a row in the Northeast or Midwest or Northwest due to icing. In the
summertime, frontal thunderstorms can easily prevent completion of a
cross-country trip for 1-2 days.

Also what happens if you have an 8-hour cross country trip you plan to start
at 10AM but weather does not clear until 10PM? The airlines will get a
fresh crew to do the night flight. Will you start a long night flight at
10PM single-pilot IFR after you have been up all day checking weather?

There are LOTS of advantages to GA travel and I do it all the time... but
the only realistic way to do it is to either be prepared to rent a car or to
schedule departure/arrival windows which are 24-36 hours wide depending on
the season and the capabilities of the pilot and airplane.

On the other hand, a rather novel use of general aviation when weather is
bad is that you may be able to fly to an inexpensive airline airport such as
a Southwest hub and continue your trip from there. When I had to cancel my
trip from Pittsburgh to Orlando due to 2 hurricanes, I flew my airplane to
Norfolk Virginia and got the family $69 tickets to continue the flight from
there to Orlando; that was immensely less expense than the commercial fare
from Pittsburgh to Orlando and a strategy I will not forget in the future.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

In the Midwest, you can usually follow a line of thunderstorms (albeit at a
distance) and still make your destination even if a bit late. Many people
just park it for a few hours and let the storms roll through, then continue
their trip in the beautiful clear skies behind the front.

--
Jim Carter
Seen on a bumper sticker:
If you can read this, thank a teacher
If you can read this in English, thank a soldier.


"Richard Kaplan" wrote in message
s.com...

wrote in message
...

missed connections. All that said, the airlines still offer higher
reliability of safely getting to where you want to go more or less when
you
want to be there, but if you use the flexibility inherent in flying your
own
light airplane (NOT a rental!), the difference isn't all THAT huge.

I don't count a flight being cancelled by airlines and getting there 6
hours
later as a cancellation -- you still get there.

Airlines can, indeed, plan routes around weather; in fact, an airliner at
500 knots can do this much, much easier than I can do at 160 knots.

The difference between airline reliability and general aviation
realiability
is VERY significant anywhere except the Southwest U.S. Also Florida is
very reliable except during the afternoon in the 6-month rainy season.

Especially if you fly a non-deiced airplane, you can be grounded for
several
days in a row in the Northeast or Midwest or Northwest due to icing. In
the
summertime, frontal thunderstorms can easily prevent completion of a
cross-country trip for 1-2 days.

Also what happens if you have an 8-hour cross country trip you plan to
start
at 10AM but weather does not clear until 10PM? The airlines will get a
fresh crew to do the night flight. Will you start a long night flight at
10PM single-pilot IFR after you have been up all day checking weather?

There are LOTS of advantages to GA travel and I do it all the time... but
the only realistic way to do it is to either be prepared to rent a car or
to
schedule departure/arrival windows which are 24-36 hours wide depending on
the season and the capabilities of the pilot and airplane.

On the other hand, a rather novel use of general aviation when weather is
bad is that you may be able to fly to an inexpensive airline airport such
as
a Southwest hub and continue your trip from there. When I had to cancel
my
trip from Pittsburgh to Orlando due to 2 hurricanes, I flew my airplane to
Norfolk Virginia and got the family $69 tickets to continue the flight
from
there to Orlando; that was immensely less expense than the commercial fare
from Pittsburgh to Orlando and a strategy I will not forget in the future.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com