The price of gas

One thing no one has brought up (surprisingly) is the monetary exchange rate
change over the last few years.

Our American dollar buys a lot less than it did just a few years ago.
Factor *that* in, and gas may be cheaper than it's ever been.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Cub Driver" wrote in message
news
On Fri, 21 May 2004 03:08:58 GMT, "G.R. Patterson III"
wrote:

It's going up.

Yes. The yellow light came on in my Accord (I didn't even know it had
a yellow light!) so I filled up downtown at $2.039 because I reckoned
I didn't have fuel enough to carry me to BJ's Wholesale Club, where
it's still $1.969. BJ's is usually a nickel cheaper than the rest of
the world. Most of the brand-name stations in Portsmouth on the strip
sell it for $2.019.

And I see that my scenario of the White House liberating the Strategic
Oil Supply has been shot down by the prezdint.

That was the first time I ever put $25 into the tank. (Come to think
of it, I haven't seen that Hummer on Route 108 lately, heh heh.)

Well, you probably did, but it was in different dollars than now.

Excerpt from
http://www.poorandstupid.com/2004_05...14537144124262

/begin quote
-----------------------------------------------
One of the first ways people adjust to high gasoline prices -- if they are
gasoline buyers, that is -- is they use less gas. That means they may shift
some of their economic activity from things that involve driving long
distances in an SUV to other things that involve driving shorter distances
in a normal car. Now why should that hurt the economy?

Another way people adjust to high prices -- if they are gasoline sellers,
that is -- is they find ways to produce more gas. They drill more oil wells.
They open new refineries. Now why should that hurt the economy?

Are you seeing a pattern here? When prices rise, buyers try to buy less.
Sellers try to sell more. And what do you know -- as a result of both those
things, pretty soon the price starts to fall. No, it's not magic. It's basic
economics. It works every time.

This isn't the 1970s or the 1980s. Today we're not seeing radical price
increases as the result of the sudden cut-off of supply. There's still
plenty of oil to go around -- and it's just getting a little more expensive
at the moment.

How much more expensive? That's a matter of perspective. Sure, it grabs your
attention when regular gasoline tops $2 a gallon for the first time. "Record
gas prices!" the headlines scream. But the reality is that when you adjust
for inflation, a gallon of gas cost almost 50% more in 1981 than it does
today.

And here's an even more amazing statistic. Over time, thanks to technology,
we've gotten much more efficient in the way we use gasoline, oil, and energy
of all kinds. In 1974 when the first "oil crisis" hit, it took over 17
quadrillion BTUs of energy to produce $1 million of gross domestic product
(measured in constant year-2000 dollars). Today it takes less then 10
quadrillion BTUs.

One more statistic: in 1978 the US consumed over 18 million barrels of oil
every day, when annual GDP was $5 trillion. Today we use only 10% more oil
every day than we did then, but GDP has more than doubled to almost $11
trillion.

The bottom line: oil is important, but it just doesn't matter quite the same
way that it used to
------------------------------------------------------------
/end quote

"Peter Gottlieb" wrote in message
. net...
What I do know is that the heavy use of oil has had adverse environmental
effects and has created dangerous instability in the Middle East. I
believe
that it would be in this country's best interests to somehow decrease
reliance on foreign oil, and preferrably, reduce oil usage overall. I do
not know the best way to accomplish those goals.

"Over time, thanks to technology, we've gotten much more efficient in the
way we use gasoline, oil, and energy of all kinds. In 1974 when the first
"oil crisis" hit, it took over 17 quadrillion BTUs of energy to produce $1
million of gross domestic product (measured in constant year-2000 dollars).
Today it takes less then 10 quadrillion BTUs.

One more statistic: in 1978 the US consumed over 18 million barrels of oil
every day, when annual GDP was $5 trillion. Today we use only 10% more oil
every day than we did then, but GDP has more than doubled to almost $11
trillion."

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
newsGnrc.4194$ny.878510@attbi_s53...
One thing no one has brought up (surprisingly) is the monetary exchange
rate
change over the last few years.

Our American dollar buys a lot less than it did just a few years ago.
Factor *that* in, and gas may be cheaper than it's ever been.

I worked in a gas station in high school in 1971 and remember gas being 28
(up to about 31) cents a gallon. Now, how much were you making back 33 years
ago? As a point of reference, I was making about 1/15th then as what I make
now and I'm sure most everyone else in a similar boat.

By these numbers, gas would be about $4.35 a gallon.

Oh, I was getting 12 or so MPG in a 1969 Chevelle 396...about half what we
get in both our cars and about 75% what we get in our evil SUV.

Oh, and when I was in London back in 2001, gas was about $4.75 a gallon
(liters/gallons and dollar/pound conversions) and a bit less in The
Netherlands.

"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 21 May 2004 01:48:23 GMT, Philip Sondericker
wrote:

I make no claims as to the accuracy of anything contained in the above
article. But it's an interesting counterpoint to the article claiming
that
oil reserves are actually increasing. Is this just more of the usual
alarmism?

The Wall Street Journal had an article the other day dealing with
Hubbert's Peak.

Hubbert predicted that oil production in any field or country would
peak (and then decline) at a fairly predictable time, and history has
borne him out.

"Marion King Hubbert, a geophysicist and a geologist for the USGS, is known
for predicting, in 1956, that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and
decline thereafter. This peak has come to be known as Hubbert's peak and is
used to allegedly demonstrate that the current demand for oil will lead to a
crisis and that that crisis is nearly upon us."

In the U.S. as I recall it was 1972 (I was surprised it
was so late). In the North Sea it was 2000. Saudi according to the
article is fairly close to peaking, and nothing has been discovered in
the past half-century that could replace Saudi oil.

The article made no mention of fields regenerating, though obviously
it is possible in a given case. (Shucks, there could have been an
undiscovered field/lode/pool near the Mexican one mentioned, which
began to "leak" into the original site.)


Are you referring to David Goodstein's book "Out of Gas"?

Are you sure about this data? I don't have data back to 1978 but input into
refineries has gone from 11.7 million barrels a day to 15.9 from 1982
through last week. I find it hard to believe that petroleum consumption
dropped by 1/3 from 1978 to 1982
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/psw10vwcr.xls'

Mike
MU-2

"Tom Sixkiller" wrote in message
...

"Peter Gottlieb" wrote in message
. net...
What I do know is that the heavy use of oil has had adverse
environmental
effects and has created dangerous instability in the Middle East. I
believe
that it would be in this country's best interests to somehow decrease
reliance on foreign oil, and preferrably, reduce oil usage overall. I
do
not know the best way to accomplish those goals.

"Over time, thanks to technology, we've gotten much more efficient in the
way we use gasoline, oil, and energy of all kinds. In 1974 when the first
"oil crisis" hit, it took over 17 quadrillion BTUs of energy to produce $1
million of gross domestic product (measured in constant year-2000
dollars).
Today it takes less then 10 quadrillion BTUs.

One more statistic: in 1978 the US consumed over 18 million barrels of oil
every day, when annual GDP was $5 trillion. Today we use only 10% more oil
every day than we did then, but GDP has more than doubled to almost $11
trillion."

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...
Are you sure about this data? I don't have data back to 1978 but input
into
refineries has gone from 11.7 million barrels a day to 15.9 from 1982
through last week. I find it hard to believe that petroleum consumption
dropped by 1/3 from 1978 to 1982
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/psw10vwcr.xls'

Mike
MU-2

CONSUMED!

And remember the price skyrocketing from 1978...the lines around the corner?

That's also when the Detroit battleships went a gleaming...


"Tom Sixkiller" wrote in message
...

"Peter Gottlieb" wrote in message
. net...
What I do know is that the heavy use of oil has had adverse
environmental
effects and has created dangerous instability in the Middle East. I
believe
that it would be in this country's best interests to somehow decrease
reliance on foreign oil, and preferrably, reduce oil usage overall. I
do
not know the best way to accomplish those goals.

"Over time, thanks to technology, we've gotten much more efficient in
the
way we use gasoline, oil, and energy of all kinds. In 1974 when the
first
"oil crisis" hit, it took over 17 quadrillion BTUs of energy to produce
$1
million of gross domestic product (measured in constant year-2000
dollars).
Today it takes less then 10 quadrillion BTUs.

One more statistic: in 1978 the US consumed over 18 million barrels of
oil
every day, when annual GDP was $5 trillion. Today we use only 10% more
oil
every day than we did then, but GDP has more than doubled to almost $11
trillion."

So you don't have a source?

Mike
MU-2

"Tom Sixkiller" wrote in message
...

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...
Are you sure about this data? I don't have data back to 1978 but input
into
refineries has gone from 11.7 million barrels a day to 15.9 from 1982
through last week. I find it hard to believe that petroleum consumption
dropped by 1/3 from 1978 to 1982
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/psw10vwcr.xls'

Mike
MU-2

CONSUMED!

And remember the price skyrocketing from 1978...the lines around the
corner?

That's also when the Detroit battleships went a gleaming...


"Tom Sixkiller" wrote in message
...

"Peter Gottlieb" wrote in message
. net...
What I do know is that the heavy use of oil has had adverse
environmental
effects and has created dangerous instability in the Middle East. I
believe
that it would be in this country's best interests to somehow
decrease
reliance on foreign oil, and preferrably, reduce oil usage overall.
I
do
not know the best way to accomplish those goals.

"Over time, thanks to technology, we've gotten much more efficient in
the
way we use gasoline, oil, and energy of all kinds. In 1974 when the
first
"oil crisis" hit, it took over 17 quadrillion BTUs of energy to
produce
$1
million of gross domestic product (measured in constant year-2000
dollars).
Today it takes less then 10 quadrillion BTUs.

One more statistic: in 1978 the US consumed over 18 million barrels of
oil
every day, when annual GDP was $5 trillion. Today we use only 10% more
oil
every day than we did then, but GDP has more than doubled to almost
$11
trillion."

"Tom Sixkiller" wrote in message
...

out.

"Marion King Hubbert, a geophysicist and a geologist for the USGS, is
known
for predicting, in 1956, that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and
decline thereafter. This peak has come to be known as Hubbert's peak and
is
used to allegedly demonstrate that the current demand for oil will lead to
a
crisis and that that crisis is nearly upon us."


Remakably he was only off by a couple of years.

Mike
MU-2

I worked in a gas station in high school in 1971 and remember gas being 28
(up to about 31) cents a gallon.

Heh. I worked in a gas station in 1979-80, when gas first busted a buck a
gallon in the Milwaukee, WI area.

You'd have thought I was the anti-Christ, working behind that counter. It
was as if every person filling their tank had determined that *I* was
PERSONALLY responsible for the price of gasoline...

I don't envy the folks in gas stations nowadays, after the price surpassed
TWO bucks a gallon. Of course, everything is pay-at-the-pump now, so I
suppose they're getting off a bit easier...
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"