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#81
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Pete,
No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think the USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe at the same time. Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years, it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening. The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first. Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be delivered by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but on defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands of kms away from the battlefield. The USN could bring a carrier or two (even more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of Flankers and AWACS.... Hm, perhaps you are right: the ROCAF would fight for US air superiority... Obviously, there is no need for either the USAF or the USN to push for additional developments in the air-to-air arena... Kevin, Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their operational test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first birds in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on the sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now (out of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some 48 aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would appear that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those 200 or so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or two (and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built aircraft just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400"). The following figures are from Chinese-language sources and as of 1 March 2004. They detail the number of aircraft in service, location and assignement of Flankers in the PLAAF (and I hope you know that J-11 is the Chinese designation for Su-27SKs, and that an increasing number of these is meanwhile upgraded with new avionics package - foremost radars and nav/attack systems). - 1st Anshan MR, base: Shenyang, 1st AR: 26 J-11 - 2nd Suixi MR, base: Guangzhou, 4th AR: 26 Su-27 - 3rd Wuhu MR, base: Nanjing, 9th AR: 26 Su-30 - 6th Yingchaun MR, base: Lanzhou, 16 or 18 AR and 139 AR: 26 J-11 (and increasing) - 7th Beijing MR, base: near Beijing, 19/20/21 ARs: 26 J-11 (and increasing: planned to become 78 by the end of 2005) - 18th Changsha MR, base: Guangzhou, 54th AR: 26 Su-30 - 19th Zhengzhou MR, base: Jinan 55/56/or 58 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing: planned to become 78 by the end of 2005) - 29th Quzhou MR, base: Nanjing 85/86 or 87 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing: planned to become 78 by the end of 2005) - 33rd Chongqing MR, base: Chengdu 97th AR: 38 Su-27 - 6th Naval MR, base: Dachang (Shanghai)16 or 17 AR: 18 Su-30 (and increasing: planned to become over 36 by the end of 2005) - Flight Test Center, Cangchou MR, Beijing: 18 Su-30 In total, the numbers should currently be as follows: - J-11: 80 at present, no additional orders: all are going to be converted to J-11A - J-11A: 20+ at present, 80 J-11s to be converted, for an eventual total of 100 - Su-30MKK: 60+ at present, +20-30 additional airframes delivered per year on average, for an eventual total of 80+ (at least) by the end of 2005 - Su-30MK2: 20+ at present, at least 20 are on order, for an eventual total of 40+ (at least) by the end of 2005 - Su-27SK: 50 at present - Su-27UBK: 40 at present, 20 on order, for an eventual total of 60 by the end of 2005 That's a total of 270 airframes in service and 140 on order, for a total of 430 by the end of 2005 - if China indeed discontinues the production of the J-11. Duh, sorry, but it appears I was actually wrong: the numbers are even higher than I originally stated.... What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's and FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1 just had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)! There is a similar problem here like in the case of the F-22: what is reported is long since not current. The plane has obviously flown earlier (perhaps only "few months" earlier than reported, but nevertheless), then it was not only flown by Pakistani pilots already in 2003 (reports in the specialized press indicate it was flown by the Pakistanis for the first time only in April this year), but also by Iranians (in October last year). Consequently, they are ahead of what it appears they are. BTW, the PLAAF very much plans to have the JF-17 in service. For example a total of eight should enter service by 2006 (remaining planes from the first batch are to reach Pakistan by June or July that year) and three times this number should form the first regiment one year later. So, if we do not count J-10s, and China discontinues purchasing Su-27/30s from Russia after those currently ordered are delivered by the end of the next year (which is not only unlikely, but - according to Russian reports - the PLAAF and the PLANAF want to acquire around 700 Flankers by 2007 or 2008), there are going to be a total of 430 Su-27/30s, 20+ JF-17s, and over 200 J-8II and (I forgot to mention them earlier JH-7s alone in service by - let's say - 2007. That's a total of 650 fighters, most of which are going to be compatible with the R-77, but a large number of which is going to be armed with even better stuff of Chinese design (and not to talk about all the Kh-31s, Kh-58s etc.). ROCAF is by the time still going to have a fleet of roughly 200 F-16s and Mirage 2000s, and the USAF is not going to have more than two squadrons of F-15s at Okinawa, plus four USN Hornet squadrons and four USMC Hornet units _in Japan_ (i.e. also thousands of kms away), for a total of 36 USAF and 96 USN/USMC fighters - "somewhere in the area". Oh, yes, and 20.000km+ away, in CONUS, the 1st TFW is going to have something like 25 F-22s.... Hell, I'm really talking about very unrealistic things: this all are pure dreams. Please, disregard my nonsence then you obviously need to feel better by bashing me at any opportunity. The J-10 has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking around with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether or not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN or PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers. I see you are first-class informed about the current condition of the J-10 Project, so I'm not going to disturb you with any such nonsence like citing reports about acceleration of the J-10-production - from April this year. That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the USN is involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the F/A-22. That's your own construction: feel free to continue developing it even further. That you have chosen to completely disregard the contribution of the ROCAF may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a ludicrous oversight. I only asked if the ROCAF is now to fight for the air superiority for the USAF and the USN. You have my most humble apology if that was wrong to do. In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually unlikely (at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very brilliant prospect. If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then excuse me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also discounts PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume). Yeah! Hell, the Su-27/30 family has such a minimal combat range and endurance, and China is not in a position to pick up the time of the fight. For this alone - but especially because I am so obviously anti-US - it must be that most of them are going to be destroyed in interdiction efforts or - especially - shot down by SAMs.... ;-))) But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such matters is considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the wall head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions for sure). You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far short thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of supporting data, is not going to get you too far. Consequently, I do not understand why are you still so upset? You are doing so well: all my "data" is wrong, because I am a Chicken Little, and cannot support it. I contradict myself all the time, express myself so that nobody can understand it, and - most important of all, obviously - I am so much anti-US that I must be wrong all the way - and you MUST be right (if for no other reason then because of my signature). ;-)))) Tom Cooper Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian Vienna, Austria ************************************************* Author: Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988: http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875 Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585 African MiGs http://www.acig.org/afmig/ Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM ************************************************* |
#82
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Having just read the baseless hype you dumped on Pete about the PRC fielding some six hundred new advanced aircraft over the next year or two, I'd say you have your own hands full enough right now. Of course, Kevin: everything you say. Then, everything I do is wrong, and consequently everything you do or write here is right. Because of my signature. Have I got that correctly? ;-)))) Tom Cooper Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian Vienna, Austria ************************************************* Author: Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988: http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875 Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585 African MiGs http://www.acig.org/afmig/ Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM ************************************************* |
#83
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"Tom Cooper" wrote in message ... Pete, No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think the USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe at the same time. Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years, it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening. The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first. Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be delivered by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but on defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands of kms away from the battlefield. In such a situation the fighter aircraft of the USAF would be flying from bases in Taiwan The USN could bring a carrier or two (even more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of Flankers and AWACS.... The Chinese dont have hundreds of Flankers or a fully specified AWACS. They have purchased around 120 Su-27 and SU-3x aircraft. Assuming normal training and serviceability requirements this equates to less than 80 front line aircraft. They can field another couple of hundred indigienously produced 3rd generation fighters but the vast majority of their air force consist of obsolete Mi17/19/21 clones The PLAF has been boasting about acquiring hundreds of front line aircraft for years but the reality is that the real world acquisition has been considerably below claimed targets. As for strikes against Chinese targets, thats what stand off and cruise missiles are for. Keith ----== Posted via Newsfeed.Com - Unlimited-Uncensored-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeed.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 100,000 Newsgroups ---= 19 East/West-Coast Specialized Servers - Total Privacy via Encryption =--- |
#84
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"Keith Willshaw" wrote in message ... In such a situation the fighter aircraft of the USAF would be flying from bases in Taiwan Mmh, I guess that would be badly needed: the question of using airfields that would be under almost permanent threat of IRBM and other kind of attacks is another one, of course... The Chinese dont have hundreds of Flankers or a fully specified AWACS. They have purchased around 120 Su-27 and SU-3x aircraft. Assuming normal training and serviceability requirements this equates to less than 80 front line aircraft. They can field another couple of hundred indigienously produced 3rd generation fighters but the vast majority of their air force consist of obsolete Mi17/19/21 clones The PLAF has been boasting about acquiring hundreds of front line aircraft for years but the reality is that the real world acquisition has been considerably below claimed targets. As for strikes against Chinese targets, thats what stand off and cruise missiles are for. Keith, the figures for the numbers of Su-27/30s in China I posted above come from people who know much more about the PLAAF/PLANAF and the production of Flankers than we both are to learn in our life-time. So, please excuse me if I refuse to take seriously a statement that only something like 80 Flankers are in the Chinese front-line service, especially at the time they have ten operational and two regiments in the process of acquiring different versions. BTW, most of PLAAF MiG-17s and MiG-19s are long since gone. We're not talking here about a Mao-times air force that couldn't get anything else. It's perhaps these two types of which only "80 front-line aircraft" are remaining in service: the PLAAF Is otherwise downsizing and massively modernizing - and that since years. Believing, wishing or thinking a threat away is not going to help - neither in the case of China or some other nations, I'm affraid. In that sence: the increasing air-to-air threat from China is only one example, valid in the case of a clash over Taiwan. The USAF and the USN would also be facing very advanced threats and powerful adversaries if confronting Iran as well: except the few battles with Iraqi Mirages and MiG-25/29s in 1991, namely, neither service has ever encountered anything like IRIAF F-14s, armed with AIM-54s in combat (oh, and when the last USN's F-14s are going to be retired, in 2007 or 2008, the IRIAF is going to stand alone with the longest-ranged air-to-air missile world-wide, just for example). Given the - pretty negative (especially in regards of the BVR - which is quite surprising) - experiences from exercises with IAF Su-30MKIs recently, this is also potentially not the nicest situation given the aircraft and weapons currently at hand. All in all, the gap is closing, and that's the main point in the whole debate: to me it is obvious that the F-22 is more needed than many other things. Tom Cooper Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian Vienna, Austria ************************************************* Author: Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988: http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875 Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585 African MiGs http://www.acig.org/afmig/ Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM ************************************************* |
#85
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"Tom Cooper" wrote in message ... Pete, No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think the USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe at the same time. Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years, it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening. The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first. Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be delivered by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but on defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands of kms away from the battlefield. Eh? You think there is some kind of rule that says, "OK, if the PRC gets in the first blow, the USAF is NOT allowed to take the fight "downtown" back in the PRC--no B-2 strikes against C4I targets, no cruise missile strikes against airfields and IADS..."? Strange idea of modern combat you have there... The USN could bring a carrier or two (even more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of Flankers and AWACS.... You have yet to conclusively show where "hundreds of Flankers and AWACS" will be a problem in the forseeable future--heck, the PRC is still awaiting delivery of their first fully functional AWACS (the US having quashed the Israeli plans to sell them Phalcon a few years ago). Hm, perhaps you are right: the ROCAF would fight for US air superiority... Obviously, there is no need for either the USAF or the USN to push for additional developments in the air-to-air arena... Yeah, go simplistic...*that's* gonna really make your point! The fact is that the ROCAF is going to be fighting the PLAAF at the same time and in the same area that this postulated US response would be occuring in--sorry you can't seem to grasp that little fact. Kevin, Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their operational test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first birds in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on the sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now (out of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some 48 aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would appear that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those 200 or so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or two (and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built aircraft just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400"). The following figures are from Chinese-language sources and as of 1 March 2004. They detail the number of aircraft in service, location and assignement of Flankers in the PLAAF (and I hope you know that J-11 is the Chinese designation for Su-27SKs, and that an increasing number of these is meanwhile upgraded with new avionics package - foremost radars and nav/attack systems). - 1st Anshan MR, base: Shenyang, 1st AR: 26 J-11 - 2nd Suixi MR, base: Guangzhou, 4th AR: 26 Su-27 - 3rd Wuhu MR, base: Nanjing, 9th AR: 26 Su-30 - 6th Yingchaun MR, base: Lanzhou, 16 or 18 AR and 139 AR: 26 J-11 (and increasing) - 7th Beijing MR, base: near Beijing, 19/20/21 ARs: 26 J-11 (and increasing: planned to become 78 by the end of 2005) - 18th Changsha MR, base: Guangzhou, 54th AR: 26 Su-30 - 19th Zhengzhou MR, base: Jinan 55/56/or 58 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing: planned to become 78 by the end of 2005) - 29th Quzhou MR, base: Nanjing 85/86 or 87 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing: planned to become 78 by the end of 2005) - 33rd Chongqing MR, base: Chengdu 97th AR: 38 Su-27 - 6th Naval MR, base: Dachang (Shanghai)16 or 17 AR: 18 Su-30 (and increasing: planned to become over 36 by the end of 2005) - Flight Test Center, Cangchou MR, Beijing: 18 Su-30 In total, the numbers should currently be as follows: - J-11: 80 at present, no additional orders: all are going to be converted to J-11A - J-11A: 20+ at present, 80 J-11s to be converted, for an eventual total of 100 - Su-30MKK: 60+ at present, +20-30 additional airframes delivered per year on average, for an eventual total of 80+ (at least) by the end of 2005 - Su-30MK2: 20+ at present, at least 20 are on order, for an eventual total of 40+ (at least) by the end of 2005 - Su-27SK: 50 at present - Su-27UBK: 40 at present, 20 on order, for an eventual total of 60 by the end of 2005 That's a total of 270 airframes in service and 140 on order, for a total of 430 by the end of 2005 - if China indeed discontinues the production of the J-11. You actually expect them to complete delivery of 140 airframes over an eighteen month period? Your numbers vary quite widely from those reported in other sources: www.bvalphaserver.com/article8018.html : "By 2005, PLA fourth-generation are expected to number about 150..." www.cdi.org/asia/fa080201.html : "Jane's Defense Weekly (11 July 2001) gives the number of modern Chinese warplanes in the People's Liberation Air Force (PLAAF) as less than 200: 100 Su-27 fighters (with 10 or so more added annually) and 38 Su-30 fighter-bombers with 38 more on order from Russia." Granted, a 2001 report--but still indicative of the fact that your numbers are inflated. www.watsoninstitute.org/bjwa/ archive/9.1/Essays/Nolt.pdf : (2002) "During the past decade, China ordered 118 Su-27/30 fighters from Russia (not all have been delivered). China has begun assembling the Su-27 from Russian kits, about 15 so far, but "considerable quality control problems" have delayed deliveries." Source goes on to note that over the next five years (reaching to 2007) it is only expected that China will be able to domestically produce about 100 advanced fighter aircraft and declares that the PLAAF is "declining in relative capability" when compared to the USAF due to the excessive age of the vast majority of its airframes., http://www.jinsa.org/articles/articl...,2360,884,2014 : "...while the PLA has roughly 3,400 aircraft at their command, only a small number, around 100 are deemed modern fourth- generation fighters. These include Russian-designed Su-27 and Su-30s...The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is dogged by personnel issues. Chinese pilots, by western standards, are ill equipped to operate their aircraft to the fullest potential. The Pentagon's report believes that the PLAAF will have "developed operational concepts and the training needed to fight as an integrated force" by 2010." http://www.uscc.gov/researchreports/...herreport.htm: Lists total PRC purchases of Su-27/30 variants as 154 from Russia and 200 domestically produced J-11's, while noting that the production of the full 200 J-11's is in some doubt. This report, prepared for a US government commission, is only a couple of months old. http://www.jamestown.org/publication...ticle_id=23659 : "The purchase of Su-27 fighters from Russia has progressed to the point where China is assembling kits of these very capable aircraft, which now number approximately 200 in the PLAAF. The Su-30 fighter/attack aircraft is also rapidly being acquired by China, and more than seventy-five are currently in its air force..." This source, which comes closest to matching your claims, indicates the number that have entered into service as being 275; but it curiously does not reflect any operational/training losses (a Taiwanese source indicates that during one six month period the PLAAF lost 4 Su-27's in training mishaps). Even if you accept this most optimistic estimate of deliveries/in-service aircraft, if you apply even a minimal loss rate (say four aircraft per *year* since the beginning of Su-27/Su-30 operations in the PRC), you would have a total loss rate of some forty airframes--not including those that were heavily damaged in that 1998 typhoon, of which "most* were repaired and subsequently returned to service. Duh, sorry, but it appears I was actually wrong: the numbers are even higher than I originally stated.... Sorry, but the picture I am getting from a number of sources indicates you are not correct. What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's and FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1 just had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)! There is a similar problem here like in the case of the F-22: what is reported is long since not current. The plane has obviously flown earlier (perhaps only "few months" earlier than reported, but nevertheless), then it was not only flown by Pakistani pilots already in 2003 (reports in the specialized press indicate it was flown by the Pakistanis for the first time only in April this year), but also by Iranians (in October last year). Provide proof. Consequently, they are ahead of what it appears they are. BTW, the PLAAF very much plans to have the JF-17 in service. For example a total of eight should enter service by 2006 (remaining planes from the first batch are to reach Pakistan by June or July that year) and three times this number should form the first regiment one year later. Wow! Eight?! Please show a source that states the PLAAF plans to introduce the FC-1 into its force (preferrably in a greater number than *eight*). So, if we do not count J-10s, and China discontinues purchasing Su-27/30s from Russia after those currently ordered are delivered by the end of the next year (which is not only unlikely, but - according to Russian reports - the PLAAF and the PLANAF want to acquire around 700 Flankers by 2007 or 2008), there are going to be a total of 430 Su-27/30s, 20+ JF-17s, and over 200 J-8II and (I forgot to mention them earlier JH-7s alone in service by - let's say - 2007. That's a total of 650 fighters, most of which are going to be compatible with the R-77, but a large number of which is going to be armed with even better stuff of Chinese design (and not to talk about all the Kh-31s, Kh-58s etc.). Forget the J8--it is an anachronism. And you have yet to show where they will have over 700 fourth generation aircraft in service by the time the F/A-22 enters into operational service next year; in fact, your quick backpeddle on the alleged 300 J-10 and FC-1's entering into service by that time period kind of puts your allegation to rest, with a stake in its proverbial heart. Lots of sources indicate the current total force of Su-27/30's in service does not exceed 150 aircraft at present, and you have not shown any source that indicates otherwise. Nor have you accounted for training/operational losses since they started flying the Sukhois (and that may well indeed account for the difference between 150 and the total number of Sukhois/J-11's thus far delivered). ROCAF is by the time still going to have a fleet of roughly 200 F-16s and Mirage 2000s, and the USAF is not going to have more than two squadrons of F-15s at Okinawa, plus four USN Hornet squadrons and four USMC Hornet units _in Japan_ (i.e. also thousands of kms away), for a total of 36 USAF and 96 USN/USMC fighters - "somewhere in the area". Oh, yes, and 20.000km+ away, in CONUS, the 1st TFW is going to have something like 25 F-22s.... Last I knew, F-15 squadrons were still flying between 20 and 24 aircraft, except those in the ANG. And I guess your view is that we are bounf by some kind of "can't reinforce" clause, which presumably goes along with that whole "US has to fight defensively if the PRC strikes first" idea you postulated earlier? What about the F-16's as Misawa--they can't forward deploy? Nor can the F-15's from Alaska? There would be a prohibition of USAF assets heading into ROCAF sites? The B-1B's and/or B-52's sitting on Guam can't play? Kind of convenient scenario you have set out for yourself there... Hell, I'm really talking about very unrealistic things: this all are pure dreams. Please, disregard my nonsence then you obviously need to feel better by bashing me at any opportunity. Finally, you recognize that you are spluttering a bunch of nonsense... The J-10 has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking around with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether or not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN or PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers. I see you are first-class informed about the current condition of the J-10 Project, so I'm not going to disturb you with any such nonsence like citing reports about acceleration of the J-10-production - from April this year. Please show where this "accelerated production" is going to yield 300 aircraft by next year. That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the USN is involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the F/A-22. That's your own construction: feel free to continue developing it even further. YOUR words: "The USAF and the USN are just re-inventing air-to-air, after they realized that the F-22 might otherwise get cancelled..." Note the use of "and", and "they". That you have chosen to completely disregard the contribution of the ROCAF may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a ludicrous oversight. I only asked if the ROCAF is now to fight for the air superiority for the USAF and the USN. You have my most humble apology if that was wrong to do. Stupid question. In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually unlikely (at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very brilliant prospect. If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then excuse me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also discounts PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume). Yeah! Hell, the Su-27/30 family has such a minimal combat range and endurance, and China is not in a position to pick up the time of the fight. With all of those AWACS platforms...they still don't have, right? For this alone - but especially because I am so obviously anti-US - it must be that most of them are going to be destroyed in interdiction efforts or - especially - shot down by SAMs.... ;-))) SAM's will undoubtedly account for some of them, if they want to press the fight. EW is not exactly the prime forte of the PLAAF, now is it? But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such matters is considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the wall head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions for sure). You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far short thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of supporting data, is not going to get you too far. Consequently, I do not understand why are you still so upset? You are doing so well: all my "data" is wrong, because I am a Chicken Little, and cannot support it. I contradict myself all the time, express myself so that nobody can understand it, and - most important of all, obviously - I am so much anti-US that I must be wrong all the way - and you MUST be right (if for no other reason then because of my signature). ;-)))) I am not upset--I just don't approve of your taking half-baked figures, tossing in unrealistic assumptions, and then labeling them as "fact". You said they'd have 700 plus fourth generation aircraft in service by the time the F/A-22 enters into service--but you have yet to show where that is anywhere near possible. Brooks Tom Cooper |
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As for strikes against Chinese targets, thats
what stand off and cruise missiles are for. Well,first of all "The Chinese Threat Theory" is only a carefully invented deception,there is no Chinese threat and there wont be any Chinese threat in foreseable time. But US politicians and officials could not openly discuss "The Threat Europa" or "The Threat Japan" as it would be politically incorrect and financially devastating even though they try to prepare US for that possibility by all means So,US-Chinese conflict is a purely a academic conflict Chinese have surely Brainpower to develop post paradigm shift weapons and judging from openly available chinese R&D efforts HPM weapons are very high in their priority list. So,they are not stupid and China is not a country like Panama,Grenada,Afghanistan,Iraq etc so US will not try to attack China even if they invade Taiwan tomorrow. Thats the real politics. |
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Tom Cooper twisted the electrons to say:
neither service has ever encountered anything like IRIAF F-14s, armed with AIM-54s in combat Just how many of the 79 Tomcats and 284 Pheonixs supplied to the Iranians are still servicable though? Most people seemed pretty sure it was down to single figures (and possibly even low single figures), however there was that fly by of 25 Tomcats over Teheran on 11/02/85. (Of course, how many of them where fully operational[1] is something I doubt we know!) There also seems to be conflicting reports around as to whether the Pheonix capability was sabotaged around about the time of the revolution (either by departing Grumman technicians, pro-Western Iranian technicans or even by Iranian revolutionaries who felt the Air Force was "too western") ... [1] Mainly meaning, with a working AWG-9 as opposed to something with the capability of the "Blue Circle" of the early Tornado ADV days ... -- These opinions might not even be mine ... Let alone connected with my employer ... |
#88
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We're not
talking here about a Mao-times air force that couldn't get anything else. It's perhaps these two types of which only "80 front-line aircraft" are Before 90s chinese RMA advocates were pretty weak but during 90, with changes in chinese society they got a big boost and were able to develop their ingenious concepts like Assains' Mace weapons. Surely they have Brainpower to develop and design them (many of scientists,cutting edge researchers here in US are imported from China)and they have also industrial infrastructure to build them now. |
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On Thu, 03 Jun 2004 16:31:11 GMT, "Tom Cooper" wrote:
"Alan Minyard" wrote in message news The USAF and the USMC/USN aircraft are, by a large margin, the best in the world. The rumored "multi-static" radars are vapor ware, and the "new" Russian aircraft are either simply rumors or prototypes that will never enter production. The F-22 and F-35 will give the US Military absolute air dominance. Well, what you apparently refuse to see is that there are plenty of Su-30-clones around _in service_ right now, but that the F-22 and the F-35 are still years away from being available to operational units. But, I guess this doesn't matter to you. If you consider that there are over 200 Su-27/30s supported by several AWACS in Chinese service alone right now, how do you think could the USAF and the USN help defend Taiwan - just for example - with two squadrons of F-15s (on Okinawa) and few squadrons of Hornets on the carrier based in Japan? Sorry that the facts interfere with your anti-US ravings. Yes, Al, very good: just continue adding fuel on fire of those that really hate the USA and consider the Americans for a bunch of ignorant and undereducated idiots. The Europe is full of such people, and they are all happy when they can read something like your post here - especially when somebody reacts in the way you do against people who live in the Europe. The problem is only that you've found yourself a wrong one - like usually in such cases: so now there are going to even more of those here who also think that most Americans can't even read properly... sigh... Tom Cooper Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian Vienna, Austria You simply cannot understand that SU-XX, flown by the Chinese, cannot effectively counter F-15's and Super Bugs. When was the last time that US built and flown a/c suffered a significant defeat?? The latest Mig "super planes" did not help Saddam, did they? And, if you had not noticed, the SU is about as stealthy as a 747. Al Minyard |
#90
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On Fri, 04 Jun 2004 00:37:54 GMT, "Tom Cooper" wrote:
"Kevin Brooks" wrote in message ... "Tom Cooper" wrote in message ... "Kevin Brooks" wrote in message ... If you want to bang someone over the head, look in the freakin' mirror and do a better job of wordsmithing--as a self-aggrandizing "freelance aviation journalist" you should be able to communicate your thoughts in an intelligible manner. Sigh...seems that with my signature is your only problem here... or what, Kevin? How cute! Sigh...? Typical--you make bold-faced statements, whether through very poor wording or not, and then try and claim you did not make them, and then trump it all by snipping the part of the response you don't like. Sad. So, it is my signature after all, Kevin? ;-))) Thanks a lot for confirmation - otherwise you wouldn't come babbling about "bold-faced" statements, then I don't know where have I posted such. BTW, I don't remember to be in a need some kind of special permission from you for what I'm doing - here or anywhere else - and I have also not misunderstood this NG for some courtroom. So, I'm telling it again: go and find yourself somebody else to play - or keep on playing with yourself. I'm not the least interested. Tom Cooper Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian Vienna, Austria Actually, you are "not the least" qualified. Al Minyard |
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