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Gliding risk....



 
 
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  #61  
Old November 6th 19, 03:12 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

Wow, 6k hour pilot flying over unlandable with a vague idea of how to get to a place to land. Then virga playing Packman with the energy source, then delayed decision making, then a really focused low save.

Kudos for telling the story.

I've flown only a few contests and also have flown that area. I've always tried to fly with at least one specific landing point in the computer telling me the arrival altitude will be above some safety altitude. Sometimes, that tether causes non-optimal flight paths from a racing perspective. Maybe the tether doesn't work because of unexpected sink or a deyhdrated pilot, but when it fails I'm at least on the way to the safety point having started with enough energy to get there in theory.

Was this 6k pilot flying without a defined tether, and is this normal for competition flying?

  #62  
Old November 6th 19, 03:26 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Cochrane[_3_]
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Default Gliding risk....

The facts seem pretty clear

- Bad news: on a per hour basis, soaring is pretty risky

-Good news: the risks are not of the Russian-roulette type, how many barrels are loaded. The risk is primarily that you or I will do something dumb. Gliding is inherently quite safe. No engine = no engine failure, no engine fire, etc. Unforseeable mechanical failures and mid-air collisions outside of competition are really really rare. So what risks you face are entirely a question of how you approach decision-making.

- We all say we're going to make great decisions, but even the apparently safest and most careful pilots are often capable of making bad decisions.

- There is little correlation between the ability to fly fast and to fly safely. And people (like me) who talk a lot about safety on the ground are often just as prone to temptation in the air as others.

It's often expressed awkwardly. Yes, in the back row at every funeral we mutter, "well, I wouldn't do something that dumb." That keeps us going to get back in the air. Perhaps a better attitude is, I would, and probably will, unless I get really really careful and recognize my own susceptibility to temptation.

John Cochrane BB
  #63  
Old November 6th 19, 03:35 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

Very good synopsis John, Well said, thoughtful and concise enough to keep in mind while on task.
  #64  
Old November 6th 19, 05:13 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathan St. Cloud
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 6:12:51 AM UTC-8, wrote:
Wow, 6k hour pilot flying over unlandable with a vague idea of how to get to a place to land. Then virga playing Packman with the energy source, then delayed decision making, then a really focused low save.

Kudos for telling the story.

I've flown only a few contests and also have flown that area. I've always tried to fly with at least one specific landing point in the computer telling me the arrival altitude will be above some safety altitude. Sometimes, that tether causes non-optimal flight paths from a racing perspective. Maybe the tether doesn't work because of unexpected sink or a deyhdrated pilot, but when it fails I'm at least on the way to the safety point having started with enough energy to get there in theory.

Was this 6k pilot flying without a defined tether, and is this normal for competition flying?


" Wow, 6k hour pilot flying over unlandable with a vague idea of how to get to a place to land. Then virga playing Packman with the energy source, then delayed decision making, then a really focused low save."

Just to be clear, that 6K pilot did that twice, back to back, double tap, two in a roll on one flight. If you haven't watched it on Seeyou or soaringlab.eu you should. Every once in a while the hand of fate finds it's toll in the air, but mostly our risks are manageable with a safe margin as long as the brain is engaged. Try getting stuck later in the day in an ice couloir raining rocks and your only option is to climb faster and hope for the best. For some the drive to the airport might be the riskiest part as there are risks you can't control. I am going to continue to operate under the guise that soaring is safe as long as I am safe. I have grounded myself more than once when I was not as flight worthy as I thought I should be. Make decisions early.
  #65  
Old November 6th 19, 05:21 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
jfitch
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 6:12:51 AM UTC-8, wrote:
Maybe the tether doesn't work because of unexpected sink or a deyhdrated pilot, but when it fails I'm at least on the way to the safety point having started with enough energy to get there in theory.



I don't believe in "unexpected sink". Sink always finds me, and it finds everyone eventually. Flying over rocks with a landing site at max L/D away (even with your safety margin set to 800 or 1000) will eventually land you in those rocks, at least out west. This is what I was talking about in leaving enough margin for error.
  #66  
Old November 6th 19, 06:31 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

I'm not sure it comes across quite so clearly in his article but Bruce Taylor was unequivocal the morning after his flight that he had made a series of bad decisions that nearly led to a serious accident. It was a complete mea culpa; there was absolutely no attempt to justify his actions, no rationalization, no spin (no pun intended), and no bits of humor thrown in to lighten the mood. That's one reason why his talk was so sobering and impactful and the reception he got during the pilots' meeting and long after was so respectful.

Clearly he's a very, very good pilot. But he owned up to his mistakes 100%. Many of us thanked him in the days afterward and more than a few of us, I suspect, encouraged him to write the article so that more pilots could learn from his experience. I can also confirm that his voice sounded very calm, though serious, when he radioed in the blind to announce his predicament that afternoon. I had just come through that area not long before and seen how difficult was the terrain. His escape from that low point under tremendous pressure is a remarkable tribute to the man but so is the way he handled himself afterward.

I don't know Bruce well at all but, yeah, I'm a fan.

Chip Bearden
JB
  #67  
Old November 6th 19, 06:44 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 2:26:36 PM UTC, John Cochrane wrote:
The facts seem pretty clear

- Bad news: on a per hour basis, soaring is pretty risky

-Good news: the risks are not of the Russian-roulette type, how many barrels are loaded. The risk is primarily that you or I will do something dumb.. Gliding is inherently quite safe.


I am a pessimist and have a different personal perspective on my own gliding safety. In my view every time I take a launch in a glider it will end in my fatality unless I prevent it. (Proof - put a dummy in a glider and launch it.)

Fortunately the actions to prevent that are pretty simple and vary according to the phase of flight. 1) Make sure the glider is airworthy and think out the launch emergency plan in advance. 2) If the wing hits the ground on a winch launch release immediately. 3) If you cant keep adequate control and position on an aerotow release immediately put the stick forward and follow the emergency plan. 4) In free flight *look out* and do not hit another glider - or a mountainside. 5) Fly accurately at all times and if anything whatsoever surprising ever happens in any turn then put the stick forward to unload the wing immediately - or better still sooner than that - then think. 6) Always have an realistic plan about where to land if something goes goes wrong with the soaring (or the engine doesn't start). 7) Never find yourself "holding the nose up" when close to the ground or on an aerotow (not the same as appropriate raising the nose to slow down) because that means the stick is being held back, the angle of attack is too high and you are in risk of being an unfortunate statistic. 8) Actively monitor the airspeed and attitude during the turn to finals and give it an extra few knots.

The underlying principles are preparation, not hitting anything, constant awareness of the angle of attack relative to the stall, and situational awareness.

Yes, I have broken a glider (in an unexpectedly long grass field landing) and, yes, I am aware that I have just jinxed myself by writing this.
  #68  
Old November 6th 19, 08:33 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

“Proof - put a dummy in a glider and launch it.”

We see many “dummies being launched each week, and they’re not maniquines but real dumb flesh n blood.
  #69  
Old November 6th 19, 11:35 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

Another good article is this one by Martin Hellman:

https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/soa...2007_talk.html

In particular, I thought this quote was interesting for self assessment.

"Many years ago, I heard an expert on industrial safety give a talk in which he noted that for every fatality, there were roughly ten injury accidents; for every injury accident, there were roughly ten property damage accidents; and for every property damage accidents, there were about ten "scares" or near accidents"
  #70  
Old November 7th 19, 12:34 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Default Gliding risk....

^That's the best response in this whole thread.
 




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