By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotlessplanes.

Peter Duniho wrote:
"George Patterson" wrote in message
news:mle_e.11361$L15.4226@trndny01...
I agree that a computer can do a great job when everything goes more or
less according to plan, but what about when it doesn't?

Actually, a computer can do a great job of anything you can think of. It
has a problem if something comes up that nobody thought of

The real question is whether pilots on average are able to come up with
inspired solutions to problems more often than they create problems with
perfectly good airplanes.

I admit, I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I suspect that
human error in the cockpit causes more accidents than human novelty recovers
from.

This is the same reason that autopilot cars are a good idea, no matter how
offensive they may seem to some people. Yes, there will be failures of the
equipment. But that will happen MUCH less often than the failures of the
humans, and will improve the reliability and efficiency of our
transportation infrastructure at the same time.

The trouble is that you never hear of the thousands of 'pilot skill'
saves a year.
And in an accident the first claim by the accident inspectors is that
it's 'pilot error' and, sadly, they can maintain that position in
spite of other factors.

Peter Duniho wrote:


The real question is whether pilots on average are able to come up with
inspired solutions to problems more often than they create problems with
perfectly good airplanes.

I admit, I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I suspect that
human error in the cockpit causes more accidents than human novelty recovers
from.


That question is really at the heart of a long-running difference in
design philosophy between Boeing and Airbus. Airbus favors greater
automation, citing the fact that most accidents are caused by pilot
error. Boeing favors greater pilot control over systems, saying that
the only reason system error has not caused more accidents is that it
has not had the opportunity to do so. The truth of the matter is, no
one really can claim to know which is better: at this point it all
boils down to emotion and marketing.

I think if pilotless aircraft are to become successful, they will first
be widely used by the military. As the public gains acceptance that
these aircraft are safe, then eventually commercial will follow. There
is a huge attitude problem to overcome. Heck, Australia doesn't even
want private pilots to share airspace with commercial airliners. Who
knows what regulators there and elsewhere would demand of pilotless
airplanes?

wrote

I suspect that if you compute pay on a seat basis (i.e. $salary per
person carried) that you're already there.

Met and passed.
--
Jim in NC

With seniority and overtime, you'd be surprised at what city bus drivers
make. They drive Hummers and Lexus' - I drive a Ford Taurus.

Once the airlines get pilots' salaries down to bus driver levels, the

Recently, Bob Fry posted:

Not my statement. See
http://www.longbets.org/4

What sayeth the group wisdom? I think eventually there will be
pilotless aircraft, the question is when.

I say this will be obviated by the use of personal jetpacks and flying
autos. ;-)

People can dream, but we have far too many lawyers for this to become a
reality.

Neil

"Bob Fry" wrote in message
...
Not my statement. See
http://www.longbets.org/4

What sayeth the group wisdom? I think eventually there will be
pilotless aircraft, the question is when.


No way. considering the cost of aircraft and the liability of having
passengers it will always be cheaper to have someone there to watch over
things in the case of error.

No way. considering the cost of aircraft and the liability of having
passengers it will always be cheaper to have someone there to watch over
things in the case of error.

But without the pilots you may actually have less crashes i.e. less
liability. Pilot error is already the number 1 reference of the NTSB.

-Robert

"Bob Fry" wrote in message
...
Not my statement. See
http://www.longbets.org/4

What sayeth the group wisdom? I think eventually there will be
pilotless aircraft, the question is when.

Not unless we find a way to get rid of pilot unions first.

Bob Fry wrote:
Not my statement. See
http://www.longbets.org/4

What sayeth the group wisdom? I think eventually there will be
pilotless aircraft, the question is when.
In a word no.
Not passenger carrying aircraft.
It may well be that computorised flight systems become more reliable
but people have the capability to think outside the square using
previous experience.

Certainly techonology isn't a barrier, a lot can be done in 25 years.
The real question is whether or not pax will pay to ride in such a
device. I suspect they would

-Robert