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#21
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"aluckyguess" wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. And if frogs had wings... Therein lies the main weakness in your argument. You imagine there is a vast pool of pent-up demand. Do you believe there are buyers for 1,000 Cherokee 180s/month? How about after the first, second years? Remember, over the 40 year production history of all models of the Cessna 172/175, only 43,000 have been built. That's a long way from 1,000/mo. [snip] I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. Maybe not, because they would still build them the same way at first. Mobilization costs to handle the increased volume would have to be added to the margin made on each engine. The same thing goes for New Piper: if they suddenly had a backlog of 12,000 airplanes, they'd have to build new factories and so would all their suppliers. It would take years to reach the capacity to meet that demand efficiently. And here's the rub: by the time they had all this capacity was built, practically everyone who wanted a new 180 would have one, and there wouldn't be enough new customers to pay off the enormous debt NP (and its suppliers) would have after they built all those factories. You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they are building it for around 1500. Why does it tell you that? And what do you reckon the liability cost component of an LS6 is compared to a Lyc. O-360? -- Dan C-172RG at BFM |
#22
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"Highflyer" wrote in message ... "aluckyguess" wrote in message ... snip The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost. I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they are building it for around 1500. Actually if Lycoming had an order for 12000 IO360 engines from one customer the price would probably go up and the quality would go down. Lycoming sold all of their machinery and has all of their parts made outside by subcontractors. Each subcontractor has a significant "learning curve" coming up to speed. ( See the court case that Lycoming lost recently about crankshaft specifications and manufacturing procedures ) They would be unable to get enough parts at any price to assemble them in a reasonable time. ( NOTE: this is an opinion based on my knowledge of the aircraft engine business. ) They would find someone. Their are plenty of other crank manufactures. Highflyer Highflight Aviation Services Pinckneyville Airport ( PJY ) |
#23
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"Dan Luke" wrote in message ... "aluckyguess" wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models. Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. And if frogs had wings... Therein lies the main weakness in your argument. You imagine there is a vast pool of pent-up demand. Do you believe there are buyers for 1,000 Cherokee 180s/month? How about after the first, second years? Remember, over the 40 year production history of all models of the Cessna 172/175, only 43,000 have been built. That's a long way from 1,000/mo. [snip] I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. Maybe not, because they would still build them the same way at first. Mobilization costs to handle the increased volume would have to be added to the margin made on each engine. The same thing goes for New Piper: if they suddenly had a backlog of 12,000 airplanes, they'd have to build new factories and so would all their suppliers. It would take years to reach the capacity to meet that demand efficiently. And here's the rub: by the time they had all this capacity was built, practically everyone who wanted a new 180 would have one, and there wouldn't be enough new customers to pay off the enormous debt NP (and its suppliers) would have after they built all those factories. You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they are building it for around 1500. Why does it tell you that? And what do you reckon the liability cost component of an LS6 is compared to a Lyc. O-360? -- Dan C-172RG at BFM |
#24
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aluckyguess wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. If the moon were made of green cheese, astronauts wouldn't need Cheez Whiz. Simply put, there is not a market for the amount of new planes you envision. New cars models are sold in the hundreds of thousands per year. At that volume, manufacturers can afford to buy robots to automate most of the work. Common parts can be interchanged and bought very cheaply in large quantities. At GA volumes, planes still have to be built by hand, much the way they've always been built. That's where the cost of a plane skyrockets. I've visited the new Cessna plant. It looks more like a huge hanger with hundreds of homebuilders than an actual factory. As far as there being more work involved building a new car than a plane, all I can say is that you've obviously never built a plane before. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost. I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. Even at 1000 a month, you still can't come close to the economies of scale that are common to the auto industry. Therefore, you shouldn't realistically expect the price to come close either. John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180) |
#25
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"John Galban" wrote in message ups.com... aluckyguess wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. If the moon were made of green cheese, astronauts wouldn't need Cheez Whiz. Simply put, there is not a market for the amount of new planes you envision. New cars models are sold in the hundreds of thousands per year. At that volume, manufacturers can afford to buy robots to automate most of the work. Common parts can be interchanged and bought very cheaply in large quantities. At GA volumes, planes still have to be built by hand, much the way they've always been built. That's where the cost of a plane skyrockets. I've visited the new Cessna plant. It looks more like a huge hanger with hundreds of homebuilders than an actual factory. As far as there being more work involved building a new car than a plane, all I can say is that you've obviously never built a plane before. I have build plane parts my whole life. Before I tell you how I think it can be done I am going to pitch my plan to Piper if they dont listen I will try Cessna. It can be done and I think I know a way to create the market. If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005 Warrior for under 60k with financeing how many would buy it? I know I would order one. I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or close to it. The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost. I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price would drop quite a bit. Even at 1000 a month, you still can't come close to the economies of scale that are common to the auto industry. Therefore, you shouldn't realistically expect the price to come close either. John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180) |
#26
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"aluckyguess" wrote: Before I tell you how I think it can be done I am going to pitch my plan to Piper if they dont listen I will try Cessna. I'm sure they'll enjoy the laugh--if you can get in the door. If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005 Warrior for under 60k with financeing how many would buy it? Does that include paint? |
#27
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aluckyguess wrote: If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005 Warrior for under 60k with financeing how many would buy it? I know I would order one. A Warrior? Never, wing's on the wrong side. |
#28
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On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 23:38:33 -0400, "Morgans"
wrote: "Jimbob" wrote A LSA could be much more capable than a 152. A nice slippery one could bop along at the LSA top speed of 120 knots, compared to the 152's top speed of 108 knots. That means it would take the 152 an extra 33 minutes to get to where the LSA got to, when taking a 5 hour trip. Not huge, but notable, I think. I agree completely. The specs are in line. The planes look great. The fuel consumption is awesome and most use mogas. Consensus repair parts should be significantly less expensive. And current total costs are with certified powerplants that still have amortized FAA certification costs associated with them. When engines come out that were designed to consensus standards without the FAA overhead, price should move down. Imaginge a rebuild for only $4K. That should make cost of ownership drop quite a bit. I am really interested in what shakes out from the inital sales in the next few months(And at sun&fun). I would really be stunned if LSA does not take off like a rocket. Jim http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org |
#29
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"aluckyguess" wrote in message ... "Dan Luke" wrote in message ... "aluckyguess" wrote: If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft. They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new car than a small plane. You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models. Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done. Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing manufacturers any economy of scale. |
#30
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"Dan Luke" wrote in message ... "aluckyguess" wrote: Before I tell you how I think it can be done I am going to pitch my plan to Piper if they dont listen I will try Cessna. I'm sure they'll enjoy the laugh--if you can get in the door. If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005 Warrior for under 60k with financeing how many would buy it? Does that include paint? It's a complete airplane except for airframe, engine and avionics. |
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