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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.



 
 
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  #1  
Old June 18th 07, 07:23 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Jim Logajan
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,958
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.

File this under "old news":

The number of student pilots in the U.S. peaked in 1968, declined for a
while before climbing to its highest (and last) peak in 1979. The highest
total number of pilots peaked the next year and has been declining since
then:

http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html

(Since 2002 there have been more CFIs than students.)

In 1980 there was 1 pilot for every 274 people.
In 2006 there was 1 pilot for every 502 people.

(Population of U.S. for 2006 rounded to 300,000,000 and for 1980 taken from
he
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra..._United_States )
  #2  
Old June 19th 07, 01:59 AM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
muff528
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Posts: 304
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.



In 1980 there was 1 pilot for every 274 people.
In 2006 there was 1 pilot for every 502 people.


Looks like pilots are almost twice as efficient as they
were back in the 20th century :-)


  #3  
Old June 19th 07, 06:02 AM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Mutts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 11
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.



Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print


I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.

Perhaps it is the growth of our overly risk aversioned culture too.

Or the fascination with aviation most of us have had since kids is
failing to connect with younger folks today.

Less GA airports is not a big help either!


On Mon, 18 Jun 2007 18:23:32 -0000, Jim Logajan
wrote:

File this under "old news":

The number of student pilots in the U.S. peaked in 1968, declined for a
while before climbing to its highest (and last) peak in 1979. The highest
total number of pilots peaked the next year and has been declining since
then:

http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html

(Since 2002 there have been more CFIs than students.)

In 1980 there was 1 pilot for every 274 people.
In 2006 there was 1 pilot for every 502 people.

(Population of U.S. for 2006 rounded to 300,000,000 and for 1980 taken from
he
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra..._United_States )


  #4  
Old June 19th 07, 12:05 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Dylan Smith
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 530
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.

On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.


If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

What has changed is as noted risk aversion, but also there's lots more
things people want to spend money on (such as more than $1500 year on
television, probably $2000 a year on a cell phone plan or two, servicing
the car loan and the consequential full insurance cover you need with a
loan, people choosing to buy McMansions with the consequent high
heating/AC costs etc). So at the end of the day there's less left over
for flying.

--
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de
  #5  
Old June 19th 07, 02:30 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Matt Barrow[_4_]
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Posts: 1,119
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.


"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.


If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.


Do you have some stats to support that?

(Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory)

For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an
hour. Today, it's $120 an hour.

Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time.

A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$.

What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs. These,
though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs.

--
Matt Barrow
Performace Homes, LLC.
Cheyenne, WY



  #6  
Old June 19th 07, 03:03 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Ron Wanttaja
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 756
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.

On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:05:14 +0000 (UTC), Dylan Smith
wrote:

On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.


If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.


No, I can't agree with that. Back when I was a freshly-minted Air Force 2nd
Lieutenant, a brand-new 172 cost about 150% of my annual salary. Now, thirty
years later, a brand-new 172 would cost *more* than 150% of my salary... despite
decades of career growth and raises that reflect experience, not just cost of
living increases.

Ron Wanttaja
  #7  
Old June 19th 07, 03:03 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Dylan Smith
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 530
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.

On 2007-06-19, Matt Barrow wrote:
If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.


Do you have some stats to support that?


It's difficult to compare exact like for like, but, reposting from an
earlier message, comparing club prices of 1970 with club prices of 2007:

(on the decline of GA)
snip
On 2007-05-23, birdog wrote:
Why? My opinion, it's the expense. In the '60's and early 70's, our
club
used to fly an old Champ for $4 an hour and a 172 for $16 an hour,
wet.


And my reply:

$16 hr wet in 1970 dollars is $85 wet in 2006 dollars.

The Bay Area Aero Club in Houston, which I used to be a member of, rents
its 172 out at $75 hr today. So the price in real terms has actually
fallen.
snip

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ - an RPI calculator.

--
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.
Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de
  #8  
Old June 19th 07, 03:59 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Mutts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 11
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.



Here is an inflation calculator, no idea how accurate it is..........

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/



On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 06:30:01 -0700, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:


"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.


If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.


Do you have some stats to support that?

(Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory)

For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an
hour. Today, it's $120 an hour.

Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time.

A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$.

What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs. These,
though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs.


  #9  
Old June 19th 07, 04:15 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Mutts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 11
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.


Your probalby right.

Priorities and sacrifice.

People probably just gotta have all the crap instead.
Dreams of flight? what does that mattter when you have to have a hip
car, cool flip phone, home enterntainment system,
gotta have a computer, gaming system, eat out a lot, see all the
movies, etc etc.

And none of that challenges you, it is all instantly gratifying.
Jeez, I mean even model airplanes can be purchased pre-built these
days.

I built models of nearly everything that ever flew as a kid.

I dont know. Maybe it is indeed too many things now to spend money on
instead.

the population is growing, yet pilots are not.

I mean kids still are drawn to it, I was at an airshow last weekend
and this teen was prattling off things he knew about warbirds to his
Dad, who seemed to not know. So I think it was all the kids deal to be
at the airshow which is great.


It still is a special thing no matter what, Ill mention something or
people see stuff in my office and I always get that look and question
"your a pilot?" and lots of questions, some even I have taken up.
But none of those folks have wanted to learn themselves.




On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:05:14 +0000 (UTC), Dylan Smith
wrote:

On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:


Article about this very thing........

Up, Up and ... Never Mind
http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print

I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I
know.


If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.

What has changed is as noted risk aversion, but also there's lots more
things people want to spend money on (such as more than $1500 year on
television, probably $2000 a year on a cell phone plan or two, servicing
the car loan and the consequential full insurance cover you need with a
loan, people choosing to buy McMansions with the consequent high
heating/AC costs etc). So at the end of the day there's less left over
for flying.


  #10  
Old June 19th 07, 04:51 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Matt Barrow[_4_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,119
Default GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.


"Dylan Smith" wrote in message
...
On 2007-06-19, Matt Barrow wrote:
If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation,
you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed.


Do you have some stats to support that?


It's difficult to compare exact like for like, but, reposting from an
earlier message, comparing club prices of 1970 with club prices of 2007:

(on the decline of GA)
snip
On 2007-05-23, birdog wrote:
Why? My opinion, it's the expense. In the '60's and early 70's, our
club
used to fly an old Champ for $4 an hour and a 172 for $16 an hour,
wet.


And my reply:

$16 hr wet in 1970 dollars is $85 wet in 2006 dollars.

The Bay Area Aero Club in Houston, which I used to be a member of, rents
its 172 out at $75 hr today. So the price in real terms has actually
fallen.
snip


What year is that 172? When I was renting them in the 1979-1981 range, it
was maybe a year old model.

Try that today.



 




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