Pilots Bailing Out

On 29 Sep 2006 14:31:33 -0700, Robert M. Gary wrote:

What do they mean by "restrictions imposed since 9/11"? Unless you live
in D.C. I don't think you will notice a difference, at least I have
not.

As a foreigner there are restrictions. Some actual and some are more a
feeling (hard to explain) - but not only related to GA flying (but this
discussion would turn 'political').

before I spent several grand a year in the US, haven't done that since 2002
(besides my work schedule hasn't allowed much off-time anyway). The US
economy is losing this money, and not only from me. too bad.

#m
--
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5297822.stm

I Am Not A Terrorist http://itsnotallbad.com/iamnotaterrorist/

Robert M. Gary wrote:
What do they mean by "restrictions imposed since 9/11"? Unless you live
in D.C. I don't think you will notice a difference, at least I have
not. If anything post-9/11 makes private air travel more benefitial vs.
airlines. I don't think the VLJ market would be what it pre-9/11 when
execs would easily travel by airline.

-Robert



I don't think you have to live in DC to experience the restrictions.
Presidential TFR, nuclear plans, sport stadiums are all over the
country, and TFRs can pop up with little warning. Nowadays I rarely fly
long trips VFR because I am afraid I might fly over something I am not
supposed to. I go IFR whenever possible. However, your point about
private travel more beneficial vs airlines has become more true after
9/11.

wrote:


The main reason given was the higher cost of fuel and the liability
risk/airspace restrictions imposed since 9/11.

I think the escalating price of 100LL has a lot to do with it. Yes we
all know that the cost of fuel is only small fraction of the cost of
owning a plane, but it's the most in-your-face expenditure that you
feel it every time you fuel up.

What's not helping at all is the price gap of 100LL and regular autogas
is going to further increase in the near future, as the total
consumption of 100LL continues to dwindle. A lot of high end, high
100LL consumption operators are moving to Jet-A burning aircrafts for
its speed and capability (VLJ, turboprop, diesel conversion). The
increase of 100LL price will reduce the flying hours of the low end
market, creating a vicious cycle of escalating price gap between 100LL
and car gas.

In the mean time, I don't see any significant developement in aircraft
engine able to burn E10 autogas.

100LL fuel has a very lousy future, folks. Yes it'll be around
probably 30 years from now, but expect to pay $2/gallon more national
average on 100LL than 87 unleaded in 5 years.

Here're some interesting data of total 100LL production and import from
year 1999 to year 2004 in the U.S:

Year Avgas (thousand barrels)
1999 7485
2000 6648
2001 7121
2002 6584
2003 6255
2004 6295

source:
http://www.indexmundi.com/en/commodi...ly_monthly.htm

The data in 2005 isn't available, but it'll most likely be below 2004
because that's when the gas price really started to go up (Katrina in
9/05). It won't be surprising to have 2005 total avgas consumption dip
below 6M barrels.

Yes we
all know that the cost of fuel is only small fraction of the cost of
owning a plane, but it's the most in-your-face expenditure that you
feel it every time you fuel up.

Actually, it's a good third of the cost in our club Cherokees.

Jose
--
"Never trust anything that can think for itself, if you can't see where
it keeps its brain." (chapter 10 of book 3 - Harry Potter).
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

I don't think you have to live in DC to experience the restrictions.
Presidential TFR, nuclear plans, sport stadiums are all over the
country, and TFRs can pop up with little warning. Nowadays I rarely fly
long trips VFR because I am afraid I might fly over something I am not
supposed to. I go IFR whenever possible. However, your point about
private travel more beneficial vs airlines has become more true after
9/11.

I've flown since 1994, and the difference between flying pre-9/11
versus post-9/11 are so insignificant (outside the Washington, D.C.
area) as to be inconsequential.

Here are the only differences Mary and I can think of here in Iowa
City:

1. Stadium TFRs.
We have six or seven home football games at nearby Kinnick Stadium
every year. From one hour prior to one hour after each of these six
games, you cannot fly within 3 miles of the stadium without talking to
nearby Cedar Rapids approach.

2. Presidential TFRs
With the election season coming up, Iowa will soon be infested with
Washington politicians. This means that we'll have to be aware of the
president's position in relation to our travel plans. A phone call to
FSS (or, if you have a Garmin 496, a glance at your screen) will tell
you where they are.

That's it.

If those two occasional inconveniences stop you from flying, you were
looking for an excuse to quit GA long before 9/11.

Personally, I think "die off" has been the biggest GA-killer of them
all. There were a helluva lot of WWII, Korean War, and Viet Nam War
pilots who started flying GA when they got out of the military. The
WWII guys are just about all gone, the Korean War guys are close at
their heels, and even the Viet Nam guys are getting long in the tooth.

There simply aren't enough of us "young" guys to fill their shoes.
Heck, at age 48, I'm NOT supposed to be "one of the young guys" at the
airport...but I am.

Between that, and skyrocketing fuel costs (which, thankfully, have
subsided some), GA is just shrinking. And it's up to those of us who
love it to make sure that this trend is reversed.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 30 Sep 2006 15:31:22 -0700, "Jay Honeck" wrote
in .com:

Here are the only differences Mary and I can think of here in Iowa
City:

1. Stadium TFRs.
2. Presidential TFRs
That's it.

If you fly near Cedar Rapids, you may be in for a surprise.

Bob Noel wrote:
In article . com,
"Robert M. Gary" wrote:
1) I haven't given up flying

Then I don't understand the nature of your post. The OP was talking
about pilots giving up flying and wondering why. You propsed a list of
reasons including locks for planes. I still can't believe having to buy
a prop lock would make someone give up flying.

-Robert

Peter Duniho wrote:
"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
oups.com...
What do they mean by "restrictions imposed since 9/11"? Unless you live
in D.C. I don't think you will notice a difference

Let's see, just as a small sampling of other issues...
Anyone who crosses the US border.

Hmm, I've crossed the border from Canada once and Mexico 4 times since
9/11 including 4 months after 9/11 I didn't notice any overt
differences, certainly not anything that would make me want to give up
flying (the subject of this thread). So, tell me, what border changes
have taken place that make you want to give up flying???

-Robert

"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
ups.com...
Hmm, I've crossed the border from Canada once and Mexico 4 times since
9/11 including 4 months after 9/11 I didn't notice any overt
differences, certainly not anything that would make me want to give up
flying (the subject of this thread). So, tell me, what border changes
have taken place that make you want to give up flying???

Who said anything about a specific change making someone want to give up
flying?

The point is that it's not true that "unless you live in D.C. I don't think
you will notice a difference". That was the statement you made, and it's
incorrect.

In addition, collectively the changes do add up to quite a bit of extra work
on the pilot's part.

I'm surprised that you haven't noticed any difference in the rules about
border crossing pre-9/11 versus post-9/11, but the difference is there. You
should review the relevant NOTAMs if you're unclear on the changes.

Pete

Peter Duniho wrote:
I'm surprised that you haven't noticed any difference in the rules about
border crossing pre-9/11 versus post-9/11, but the difference is there. You
should review the relevant NOTAMs if you're unclear on the changes.

Pete, you forgot to post the frequency you cross the border. Do you
need me to describe the procedures for you? I haven't noticed any
appreciable difference.

-Robert