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#121
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W P Dixon wrote:
Hmmmm you take three series of test , seems it would be three certificates. Don't give 'em ideas. George Patterson Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks. |
#122
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Greg Copeland wrote: On Wed, 24 Aug 2005 08:28:30 +0200, Martin Hotze wrote: wrote: The key here is time. If the PLA can land large numbers of troops on Taiwan, they win. If they can't, the mainland government will go up in flames. So an invasion needs to be a pretty sure thing which requires high force superiority. The longer it takes to get across, the more US reinforcements arrive and the harder the job gets. So you believe that US troops will help Taiwan? In the short term, yes. We would likely engage with air and naval forces to prevent them from making it across the straits, and provide support to ground forces on Taiwan. We would likely try to avoid attacking targets on the Chinese mainland to avoid escalation, as the PRC does have ICBMs, and we've never fought a shooting war directly with a country that has those. If the PLA manages to make it across in sufficient force, they might indicate their willingness to defend their sovereign territory (which is how they see Taiwan) with said missiles. Would we trade Los Angeles or San Francisco for Taipei? Unlikely. This is why the first 7-14 days are critical. The truth is that neither side in this really wants a shooting war. The effects on the global economy are completely unpredictable and all nations involved (US, PRC, ROC, Japan) are all highly linked economically, with China having the most to lose if things went wrong for them. But this is no guarantee, as a review of trade statistics between France, the UK, and Germany prior to WWI demonstrates. Yes. As a close ally of Japan, its in our own self interest. Furthermore, the US depends on a lot of technology goods which come out of the Pacific Rim. Again, its in our own self interest. From what I understand, even Japan is willing to commit significant military resources under the primise of national security; and rightly so. This is a very interesting and sensitive development. Japan has been very quietly building a first-rate navy and air force, and could do far more if they wished to. The powder keg in North Korea and China's chest-thumping are pushing the Japanese out of their post-WWII pacifism and they have the industrial plant and economy to do anything they want. This concerns the Chinese greatly because if they have to deal with not only the USN/USAF but also the Japanese navy/AF then taking Taiwan is going to be that much more fraught with peril. They are also somewhat infuriated by this because of lingering resentment over what they see as Japan's failure to atone for WWII atrocities. They have some point here (and they find our friendship with Japan bewildering for the same reason) but one begins to feel they are milking the cow a bit much at this stage in the game. In the long term it is clear that China would like to be the dominant power in the Pacific rim. Ten years ago it was just us and them. Now India and Japan are getting into the game too. It is going to be an interesting century. We can only hope it will not be too bloody. -cwk. FWIW, I am not a China-hater by any means. I studied Mandarin for 4 years in college and lived in Beijing for a little while about ten years ago. |
#123
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Heck,
I'd trade San Francisco for a beat up used to death C-150!!!!!!!!! Patrick student SPL aircraft structural mech Would we trade Los Angeles or San Francisco for Taipei? Unlikely. This is why the first 7-14 days are critical. |
#124
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"Greg Copeland" wrote That's actually not true. Technologically, our primary fighters are on par with what is readily available around the world. The F-22 is designed to address tomorrow's world today, not the other way around. Do you know what the world holds in a decade from now? How about two? China is looking to upset the world both militarily and economically within the next decade. What will the world look like in two? China is not exactly the nicest guys on the block. Well said. I agree with perty much everything you said. Well put. -- Jim in NC |
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