Russian Air Force Woes - Time to start again?

Came across an article in Janes Defence Weekly which seems to indicate
that the decline in Russian air arms has reached an uncontrollable
decline (snippets added below) due to ageing pilots, minimal training
and flight hours, and no significant new investment.

"Russia's combat aviation in 'uncontrollable' decline

Nikolai Novichkov JDW Correspondent
Moscow

The official statement that Russia's air combat capability in 2003 was
healthy and improving has come under fire from high-ranking aviation
generals.

Lt Gen Victor Sokerin, commander of the Russian Federation Navy's
(RFN's) Baltic Fleet naval aviation, and Maj Gen Oleg Kolyada, the
Russian Federation Air Force's (RFAF's) chief of flight security, have
described a very different state of capability to the official
'healthy' claims
made by Col Gen Vladimir Mikhailov, RFAF commander (JDW 21 January)."

So at least the claims are coming from knowledgeable sources.

"At present, the age of experienced specialist aircrew in the Baltic
Fleet air force and air defence force has risen by 10-15 years and
keeps
growing. There are no interceptor pilots under 36 and only 2% are
below 40. Only 3% of first- and second-class pilots are under 36 and
just 1%
of interceptor navigators are under 40, while 11% of first- and
second-class navigators are under 36. Sixty per cent of crew
commanders are
over 35, with half of them over 40."

"In five years' time, according to Gen Sokerin, there will be no-one
to carry out combat tasks since all first-class pilots will have
retired. Over the
last 12 years, the number of aircrew in the Baltic Fleet has fallen by
more than a third. The pilots' flying time on the fleet's Sukhoi
fighter/strike
aircraft is a mere five to seven hours per year because only 10% of
the required minimum allocation of aviation fuel is available. Around
50% of
pilots make no more than one flight in a year - and then only to
qualify for the pilot's food ration and a meritorious service record."

There is also comment on the lack of ability in ATC facilities due to
no more than 3-4 flights being in the air at one time - presumably
controlling large air battles or strike packages requires rather more
practise.

For the RFAF average flight time appears to be about 40 hours (also
from teh article).



So, with all that in mind, is there a way back for the RFAF and other
air arms, or are they on their way to the problems India is having
with high accident rates and poor availability - is it time to start
again?

If they opt to begin again then as a straw man I'd suggest......

Rely on the S-300 series to provide border control for the moment, and
withdraw *all* fast jets (including the bombers) to storage (or sell
them), using the O&M cash saved to buy a few regiments (4?) of combat
capable advanced jet trainers (I can't recall the Russian equivalent
of the Mako) with the combat fit being concentrated on ground attack.

Using the relatively old and scarce experienced pilots as Squadron
commanders and instructors, begin to recruit at a sufficicent rate
that within a decade you'll have a dozen regiments of fast jet pilots.

As the new entrants get trained in basic combat techniques buy more
advanced jets of the Typhoon/Rafale/J-10 class to provide a real
capability, adding tankers and AWACS into the mix.

One of the more obvious drawbacks is the destruction of the Russian
aircraft manufacturers, unless you can seal some sweet
research/development/production deals with a few nations (i.e.
India/China) to keep you development ticking over and your engineers
employed.

Also exchanges and training will improve the proficiency faster (DACT
is a *good* thing) .

Any comments or thoughts from those who know a bit about builing an
Air arm from scratch?

Oh, and I'd particularly be interested to hear what Mr. "no one has
ever gone to the moon" Petukhov thinks :-)

Peter Kemp