Plane crashed -- what happened?

In article .com, "Denny" wrote:
I have blown through a Vee formation of Canadian geese in the middle of
the night, a couple of times... Scares the crap out of you...

denny

Man, I bet it would. They fly over our house at night many times. They even
fly VFR over the top. I'll be working outside on a foggy day, and can hear
them calling as they fly over the fog.

tom pettit

I saw a flight of ducks just a few weeks ago skimming the top of an
overcast, daytime though.

Dan

Flew Air Defense Fighters out of Hamilton AFB for 7 years in the 60's.

One dark (no moon) VFR night I was in the general area your friend
went in and got the worst case of vertigo I had ever had or had since.

I immediately went on full instruments and made a upset attitude
recovery and it took me about 45 minutes on instruments until I could
look outside without spatial disorientation and differentiate between
the stars and the lights on the ground.

A similar situation could have happened to your friend very easily.

Flying is a rough game. My condolences of course.

Big John
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On Wed, 2 Mar 2005 11:02:40 +0000 (UTC), Dan Foster
wrote:

A good friend is grieving the sudden loss of another friend from a plane
crash about a week ago. Neither the pilot nor the sole passenger survived.

With very little information to go on with... I'm wondering what could
have had been the possible factors into such an accident.

I am sure the NTSB will do a good job in about 12-18 months from now
when the final report is released. However, I'm still curious about the
possibilities, and trying to make some head and tail of it all.

Situation: pilot departed Portland, Oregon in his 1983 Glasair with
destination being Crescent City, CA (CEC) around 12:30 am local time.

Shortly after 2am local time, Seattle ATC reportedly received word from
the pilot indicating he had CEC in visual sight and was terminating
radar service, and switching to the local airport frequency. That was
the final transmission received.

Sounds like he had flight following? NTSB indicates he hadn't filed a
flight plan so he had to be flying VFR.

The authorities later determined the plane crashed in the ocean right by
the Oregon and California border, about 700 yards off shore. The place
is about 20-something miles away from CEC?

Preliminary NTSB report indicates that at 0156 local time, at CEC:

1. VMC conditions prevailed -- clear at 10 statue miles
2. Wind was 110 degrees at 5 knots
3. Temp was 12 deg C, dewpoint was 5 deg C

Final radar contact was lost at 0204, when the plane was at 400' AGL.

Radar data indicates that 'the target' [as the NTSB put it] was
descending at an high rate prior to the final radar contact.

So my questions:

1. Would it have been possible for a pilot to see a destination
airport from about 25 nm out, at night?

I don't have much night flying experience. On the east coast,
it's not easy to see places that far out at night... but
that's mostly due to *all* the lights on the ground!

2. Is it possible the pilot might have seen lights reflecting
off the water and misinterpreted it as runway lights?

3. If #2 is possible, could the pilot have had dived to 'make
the runway'?

I seem to recall that with night flying, it's easier to
misjudge height.

4. Rapid descent -- a possible stall/spin?

Uncoordinated flight, slowing down, maybe a change in AOA
without benefit of a visible horizon to warn brain? Aka 'a
graveyard spiral'?

5. Engine failure (fuel, mechanical) or carb icing due to shock
cooling?

I'm skeptical of this one because the trained pilot will
ordinarily immediately set up for best glide speed and only
maneuver as necessary.

6. Asymmetrical flaps situation?

Seems somewhat unlikely because flaps wouldn't have had been
deployed until late in the downwind leg by the destination runway.

7. Could the pilot have gotten lost, misunderstood current
position, or just gotten confused, and mistaken the area for CEC?

From my understanding, the pilot's home airport may have had
been CEC. If that was the case, then he would probably be more
familiar with CEC+vicinty flying and possibly including night flight?

8. CFIT? Hitting a tower/antenna or mountainous/cliff terrain?

I'm not familiar with places out west, though I understand that
terrain is a very real issue. But if the plane crashed in the
ocean... hard to see how it could be terrain related.

Granted, it wasn't too far from shore -- about 700 yards.

I don't have a Klamath Falls sectional... alas. I know
there's some r.a.p folks here that either lives in the region or
are pretty familiar with the region.

9. Airframe icing doesn't sound too likely since there was no
report of that from other pilots in the area at time of the crash.

10. Wind shear doesn't sound too likely. Wasn't really windy on
the ground at CEC; unlikely to be significantly different
only 20nm away along the coast?

11. Does the Glasair have special handling characteristics that
someone not familiar with it might need to pay attention to?

12. The NTSB didn't specify the rate of descent, but their choice
of wording ('rapid') suggests an higher than normal rate of
descent.

Does this sound like establishing for best glide to anyone?
Or like a really serious problem?

13. Sudden debilitating medical condition seems unlikely because
the pilot was 27 years old and not known to have any
preexisting serious health issue.

14. Other possibilities?

I do know for sure the pilot owned this plane.

Considering his age, I find it unlikely he was the original owner.

I do not know his total time (flight hours) nor hours in the Glasair. I
understand the Glasair is a pretty nice plane, in general.

I do not know the cruise altitude he flew at. They might know that one
based on radar returns, but if they do, they didn't say so in the
preliminary report. I understand the NTSB got its preliminary data from
both FAA and U.S. military radar data.

Not so sure it's necessarily plane's fault like the family and friends
seems to think -- odds in general aviation are pretty good that it's
often human error somewhere in the chain.

I am accepting that while not pleasant, these things do happen despite
the best of efforts made to prevent it. I know, understand, and
appreciate the risks.

I understand survivability was not real good -- reportedly 50 degree F
water at the time of crash, though a local newspaper described the water
as being 'icy'.

No idea if hyperbole or fact... but either way, the passenger was
recovered about 6 1/2 hours later. I doubt one could have had survived
that long without any additional protection. (Neither person made it.)

The family and friends, not being as familiar with aviation, are taking
it much harder. So I'm hoping to be able to converse more intelligently
once whenever they're ready to start asking questions about aviation
related matters and the crash.

Anyway... any comments would be much appreciated.

-Dan