Making the safe decision (AKA "I hate AIRMET ZULU")

Roger wrote:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:


In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:

An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.


A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

Cool! Nothing like having a good reason to do some extra flying!! :-)

Matt

Matt Whiting wrote:

I'd rather fly IFR at a safe altitude and get around the ice, than scud
run in mountainous terrain just below the cloud bases and wonder when
the mountains and the bases will become one.

(not that you will see this, Matt, since you KF'ed me)

What you wrote is certainly true. Given roughly the same location as Paul
(the OP of this thread) was about to cross, another pilot opted to scud run
a couple of years ago and ended up crashing into terrain, killing himself
and the majority of his family. A real tragedy.

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?e...10X00305&key=1

--
Peter
























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On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 17:29:06 -0400, Roger
wrote:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

We got a late start as my wife had to work in the morning and we
weren't out of 3BS until near 2:30 or 3:00 PM.

Other than passing through a line of thunderstorms just getting
started and at least 3 or 4 hours before they were to be in the area
the trip went fine. Well other than the 40 knot head wind. We
decided to overnight in the Topeka area as I really didn't want to be
getting into the mountain area after dark.

The next morning found storms forecast for the entire route so we went
airport hopping. Topeka to Salina where we topped off the tanks and
had lunch. Things were improving by 1:00 or so and we were off to
Hays KS where we spent another hour or so before heading to Goodland.

We/I had hopped to go straight to Boulder, but some towering Q had
slid off the mountains. We were close to 12,000 over Goodland, but no
way were we going to get over or around the stuff to the west. It was
just getting bigger and meaner. So we sat on the ground for a while
at Goodland.

A 182 headed out IFR while I was filing a VFR flight plan. (Below the
clouds it was crystal clear) so we headed out with an eye on the map
and every airport we passed with the closest to the south always in
mind. (the weather got better fast going south). We stayed under the
clouds, but by the time we passed Lyman CO, I was beginning to think
about heading south to find higher ceilings. Just as I was about to
turn the ceiling went up abruptly and visibility was a good 30 to 50
miles. Of course all we could see were those BIG BLACK TOWERING
Cumulus.

After we passed the south edge of the old Stapelton Airport visibility
started getting a bit stinky, but was still legal. Denver APP was
going to turn us loose, but I asked if we could hang around with them
for a while longer as it was getting kinda stinky around there. They
were kind enough to have us stay on frequency until we were
recognizing landmarks in the BJC area (Rocky Flats)

It was airport to airport and always watching for a way out,
just-in-case.

It's far better to err on the safe side than find yourself in deep
doggie do.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Sounds like a well thought out flight. I like it when a plan comes
together. I guess your wife can deal with that sort of uncertainty.
That's a good thing.


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

In a previous article, "Peter R." said:
What you wrote is certainly true. Given roughly the same location as Paul
(the OP of this thread) was about to cross, another pilot opted to scud run
a couple of years ago and ended up crashing into terrain, killing himself
and the majority of his family. A real tragedy.

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?e...10X00305&key=1

And the pilot in question was on the same mailing list as me and we'd
corresponded many times. Maybe not a friend, but a good enough
acquantance that I was considerably saddened by his passing. My wife had
heard the story back when it happened, and mentioned it to me on Sunday
when decision time came along.

Very, very sad.

Another guy on the same mailing list lost his best friend and airplane
partner (and their airplane) when said friend decided to circle to land in
extremely low visibility.

--
Paul Tomblin http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
You're nicer than I. I was thinking "Mark, would you recognize a clue
if one were gnawing on the end of your dick?"
-- random

On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 20:47:16 -0400, Ron Rosenfeld
wrote:

On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 17:29:06 -0400, Roger
wrote:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

We got a late start as my wife had to work in the morning and we
weren't out of 3BS until near 2:30 or 3:00 PM.

Other than passing through a line of thunderstorms just getting
started and at least 3 or 4 hours before they were to be in the area
the trip went fine. Well other than the 40 knot head wind. We
decided to overnight in the Topeka area as I really didn't want to be
getting into the mountain area after dark.

The next morning found storms forecast for the entire route so we went
airport hopping. Topeka to Salina where we topped off the tanks and
had lunch. Things were improving by 1:00 or so and we were off to
Hays KS where we spent another hour or so before heading to Goodland.

We/I had hopped to go straight to Boulder, but some towering Q had
slid off the mountains. We were close to 12,000 over Goodland, but no
way were we going to get over or around the stuff to the west. It was
just getting bigger and meaner. So we sat on the ground for a while
at Goodland.

A 182 headed out IFR while I was filing a VFR flight plan. (Below the
clouds it was crystal clear) so we headed out with an eye on the map
and every airport we passed with the closest to the south always in
mind. (the weather got better fast going south). We stayed under the
clouds, but by the time we passed Lyman CO, I was beginning to think
about heading south to find higher ceilings. Just as I was about to
turn the ceiling went up abruptly and visibility was a good 30 to 50
miles. Of course all we could see were those BIG BLACK TOWERING
Cumulus.

After we passed the south edge of the old Stapelton Airport visibility
started getting a bit stinky, but was still legal. Denver APP was
going to turn us loose, but I asked if we could hang around with them
for a while longer as it was getting kinda stinky around there. They
were kind enough to have us stay on frequency until we were
recognizing landmarks in the BJC area (Rocky Flats)

It was airport to airport and always watching for a way out,
just-in-case.

It's far better to err on the safe side than find yourself in deep
doggie do.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Sounds like a well thought out flight. I like it when a plan comes
together. I guess your wife can deal with that sort of uncertainty.
That's a good thing.

She does a lot of bicycle riding on tours. Weather uncertainty, break
downs, and plain old mishaps are a way of life. When we say we are
headed for Colorado it may be straight line, by way of Montana, or
Texas. We may get there in one day or three days. Albeit, I have to
admit she wasn't real thrilled when we were 90 degreed in the
turbulence just south of Stapelton.

The trip home, which I've written about several times, had us stopped
at Marysville KS due to weather. ATC told us it looked good all the
way with the exception of some little level ones and twos in the
Topeka area. "We should be able to get over most of it, or just
deviate slightly to the north". From Salina they were climbing faster
than the Deb and clouds were building to the north so we had to set
down for the night. Another 15 to 20 minutes would have had us past
it.

The next morning the briefer said (for VFR), "You're in luck. It looks
good 40 miles either side of your flight path if you go right away.
Expect ceilings 1500 or less, visibility 5 or less, both much less in
many instances of heavy rain. Have a good trip!". (They had tornado
watches out)

When we took off it was into 30 G 50 right down the runway. Man, but
we made good time coming out of there. Not a bit of trouble with that
down wind turnG. At 500 feet we had over a 100 knot tail wind. It
took us 5:15 to get that far west from home. It took us 2:20 (or so)
coming back. My wife did comment: "You know, that Dramamine is
wonderful stuff".

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

: Yes, I'd call that MVFR. I believe the cutoff for east/west altitude
: rules is 3000 AGL, but that wasn't my point. The point is that the
: original suggestion was illegal in most airspace.

I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling is not really
MVFR. There's 1200' before it's not "legal VFR" anymore. Flying anywhere east of the
Mississippi will pretty much put you at most 10 minutes from any airport you could
land at if things turn to crap in a hurry.

: I'd rather fly IFR at a safe altitude and get around the ice, than scud
: run in mountainous terrain just below the cloud bases and wonder when
: the mountains and the bases will become one.

IF there is IFR at a safe altitute without icing, I'll agree. For me,
freezing level below MEA is almost without exception a no-go if I cannot go VFR. If
SCT or BKN, or a very thin layer with well-known clear above (forecasts + pireps), may
go IFR to VFR-on-top. Dodging icing in layered and unknown density is *legally* not
an option in any non-deiced single, and *practically* REALLY not an option in my
little Cherokee.

My opinions on this may be jaded by the fact that if I'm going somewhere, I
tend to fly northwest towards Chicago out of southwest Virginia... immediately into
6000' MEAs over the mountains of west virginia. "Getting around" the relatively high
MEAs isn't really an option unless I'm willing to fly to PA first.

: I flew in an area of icing potential just last weekend and had little
: problem finding an ice-free altitude. I had to change altitude several
: times to stay between layers, but in weather like that, there is very
: little traffic below 10,000 feet, even in the northeast. I found new
: altitudes to take less than 30 seconds toget, and it took that long only
: because the controller volunteered to talk to a few other aircraft to
: find the most promising altitude for me. I've found the controllers to
: be extremely helpful on days like that. Just ask for their help BEFORE
: you get in trouble, don't do something stupid and then drop the problem
: in their lap.

If MEA is below the freezing level, I'll concur. In fact, I've stayed at
altitude going IMC overflying west virginia at 8-9000' at the freezing level to see if
I *would* pick up ice. When I did, I asked for lower, got it without delay, decended
a thousand or two and ice cleared up... no problem.


To each their own... I'm a lot more comfortable if I can see outside.

-Cory

--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

wrote in message
...
I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling
is not really MVFR.

Yes it is:

"MVFR means Minimum or Marginal Visual Flight Rules. MVFR criteria means a
ceiling between 1,000 and 3,000 feet and/or 3 to 5 miles visibility."

http://www.weather.gov/glossary/glossary.php?letter=m

--Gary

It's important not to forget the other side, where the freezing level
is (figuratively) far underground. Once you're looking at surface
temperatures of -20 degC or lower and no inversion aloft, icing becomes
very unlikely. You're not likely to have low surface visibility in
that weather (except for blowing snow), but mid-level ice-crystal cloud
might still be below MEAs enroute if you're passing over hills. We see
fewer winter days like that, though, with the rising temperatures.

Gary Drescher wrote:
: wrote in message
: ...
: I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling
: is not really MVFR.

: Yes it is:

: "MVFR means Minimum or Marginal Visual Flight Rules. MVFR criteria means a
: ceiling between 1,000 and 3,000 feet and/or 3 to 5 miles visibility."

: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/glossary.php?letter=m

I stand corrected. The little blue dots on aviationweather.gov always seemed
to go away at 1500'.

-Cory


--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

wrote in message
...
Gary Drescher wrote:
: wrote in message
: ...
: I haven't re-read the entire situation, but a 2700' ceiling
: is not really MVFR.

: Yes it is:

: "MVFR means Minimum or Marginal Visual Flight Rules. MVFR criteria means
a
: ceiling between 1,000 and 3,000 feet and/or 3 to 5 miles visibility."

: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/glossary.php?letter=m

I stand corrected. The little blue dots on aviationweather.gov always
seemed
to go away at 1500'.

That's a handy web site. Here's a link to the cite's guides to the meaning
of its symbols and acronyms:
http://aviationweather.gov/static/info/

--Gary