Gliding risk....

This article is the most realistic yet somber risk analysis I’ve encountered so far. And those who believe that soaring is safer than motorcycling must have not been exposed to soaring long enough. In fact I believe it is much more than twice as dangerous as motorcycling.
That said, I disagree with some of the conclusions. I’ve been involved enough in hang gliding and paragliding to conclude that hey are statistically safer than soaring as long as you only count fatalities. The risk of serious injury is much higher of course.
Also comparing to skydiving and base jumping is unfair since those are very short activities measured in minutes. Most jumpers will not even get close to the 1000 hours base line comparison in their life time while most soaring pilots have a good chance to get there in a decade. Number of jumps will be a better way to compare. In my opinion number of days of participating in any activity may be a better common denominator. But the overall risk per hours of flying sounds about right to me. So for an average active glider pilot who flies an average of 100 hours per year all his life (say 50 years of flying) has about 10% chance of dying flying which indeed match the reality. About 10-20% of deceased glider pilots I knew or heard about died from soaring. This is close to the risk I believe I am taking by flying often all my life.
That said, I think the age comparison is a bit overly pessimistic. Even though I fly over 300 hours per year I would like to believe that I have better chance to survive another year than a 90+ years old in general. Or maybe not?

Ramy (trying to beat the odds after 40 years and 8000 hours of soaring hang gliders and sailplanes...)

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:49:22 PM UTC-4, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

I personally appreciate this information, having known 5 individuals that have lost their lives in gliders. Two were defined as medical casualties, heart attack or stroke in flight, both at tow release. One I define as being stupid and actually going in upside down at a high rate of speed. The other two negligent, elevator not connected and the other plane ole screwed up. Know the conditions and pay attention to detail.

In all this discussion, there is one aspect missing: flying skills or level of practice
The stats imply a more or less linear risk. Meaning that the more you fly the higher is your risk and vice versa, simply because the more hours you do it, the more hours you are exposed to a certain threat.
But I’m convinced that the risk of a low time flying pilot is much higher than the one of a pilot that practices maybe one hundred hours of flying per year. Then, with an increasing amount of hours, the risk may rise up again because the longer exposure to threat outweights the slowly increasing practise.
In other words, I think with low hours the risk is high, with more practise the risk decreases and finally it rises again.
Of course I have no figures and data to proove that, but I think my feeling is not far off the truth.

Here's my research. I drive alot more than I fly. I don't know 5286 glider pilots.

In 2016, 5,286 people died in motorcycle crashes, up 5.1 percent from 5,029 in 2015, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Motorcycle fatalities have increased for the second year in a row and are at the highest level since 2008, when 5,312 people died in motorcycle crashes.
Source google

It would be interesting to know the history how the FAA came to the decision to regulate the minimum age (14) to solo gliders vs. powered aircrafts, cars, and motorcycles being at 16 or older. I am afraid if I do read the data that I will come to the fearful realization that all of you stink at being good airmen.
Here is my 320 risk list....with worst at top.

1. Motorcycles
2. Driving I-95 south anywhere south of New York.
3. Driving to/fro glider contest.
4. Eating Bubba Burgers with bacon.
5. Dumping black water without bio-hazard suit on.
6. Working off top rung of ladder.
7. Angry Mrs. R
319. Flying gliders with exceptional racing airmen.
320. Sitting on the couch waiting for death.

That ought to do it. The OP must be an insurance agent. Wait, the solicitation is coming.
This thread should be 86 for lack happy talk.

R

Dave,

I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.

http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...aring_May_1987.
pdf

Be careful out there,
Best Regards, Dave

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:57:36 PM UTC-7, Dave Nadler wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:49:22 PM UTC-4, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....
https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

Interesting stats. Counts of friends I've lost a few different ways:
- driving: 0
- motorcycle: 0
- bicycling: 1
- medical malpractice: 2
- hang-gliding (where I don't know so many): a couple
- general aviation: a few
- gliding: 25

After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...g_May_1987.pdf

Be careful out there,
Best Regards, Dave

Life is dangerous. We (community) lost a five year old riding a scooter upstairs at home, he went over banister, through the chandelier. We have lost of few others riding scooters on the boardwalk. A ninth month old was just dropped through an open window 115 feet to her death. Cherish and honor the life you have, grow, learn, experience. I have about 7,000 hours spread throughout anything that goes up including warbirds and helicopters. Never crashes an airplane, but I am still dealing with injuries suffered decades ago in an auto accident. I have not known anyone that was swatted out of the sky by the hand of fate, but I sure have witnessed a few natural selection events.

Dave,

I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.

http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...aring_May_1987.
pdf

Be careful out there,
Best Regards, Dave

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

The numbers sound plausible to me. If I take them at face value, I need to personalize them to make any assessment of risk. What I care about is what are the chances of me dying in the next year of doing these things.

For driving, I drive about 10,000 miles/yr. Assuming an average speed of 40mph, that's 250 hrs/yr. So my risk of dying next year behind the wheel is 0.01%

For soaring I fly about 40 hrs/yr. That means my chance of dying behind the stick next year is 0.08%

For down hill mountain biking, I ride maybe 400 miles/yr @ 15mph. That's 27 hrs/yr and makes my chances of dying behind the handle bars 0.08%

Now, for risky activities I try to mitigate the risks as best I can. I will assume I have average skill at all the above activities, but I can still reduce risk through technology. I drive a larger SUV, with lots of air bags, a crumple zone, and I wear a seatbelt. I fly a glider with a safety cockpit, FLARM, ADS-b out, a Spot, an AH, and automatic hook-ups. I ride a bike with a helmet and gloves.

My conclusion is: I need to spend way more time weighing the dangers of mountain biking!!!

Matt

Yes, but I LOVE to fly.Â* I never consider risks, I just keep in practice
and don't do dumb **** (any more) to mitigate those risks. Oh, and I've
been riding motorcycles for 50 years, from dirt to my present Harley.

On 10/31/2019 8:39 AM, Ian Gallacher wrote:
Dave,

I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.

http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...aring_May_1987.
pdf
Be careful out there,
Best Regards, Dave


--
Dan, 5J