Soaring already DOA for the season???

Very good information, thanks!

But your calculation does not consider those who died, but had not been
tested.Â* They would be considered in the numerator but not in the
denominator and so would skew the death rate higher.

On 3/29/2020 7:22 AM, Richard DalCanto wrote:
So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.

Richard DalCanto MD, PhD

--
Dan, 5J

nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible reason... there was never any sort of panic like that

I prefer concern instead of panic. There hasn't been serious widespread concern in the US like this since 1918. Not even polio or aids.

We are blessed that this is exceptional.
Sadly, the blessing is also a curse because it makes us complacent.

Given no vaccine, the best plan for handling a disease is to keep the case count low enough so that the public health folks handle it with case tracing and the public not much noticing.

Since 1918, the US has mostly managed to do this. The epidemics you mention did overwhelm public health folks and cause widespread concern, just not here. Without that lesson, the US social norms are not ready to get in front of the problem. In China, Sars got them ready, so they were able to get back ahead in a month or so.

wrote on 3/29/2020 8:44 AM:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:32:23 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-...ay-11585088464

I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
Covid infections are increasing.

Here's the deal for me:
- we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
- we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
- we don't have a vaccine
- we don't have a treatment
- at 77, I am a member of the high risk group

I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
precautions.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.

Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:27:22 AM UTC-6, wrote:
I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
Dan

Dan, Thanks for this! I can't get through my day without reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
wrote on 3/29/2020 8:44 AM:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:32:23 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health.. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-...ay-11585088464

I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
Covid infections are increasing.

Here's the deal for me:
- we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
- we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
- we don't have a vaccine
- we don't have a treatment
- at 77, I am a member of the high risk group

I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
precautions.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.

Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?

Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?

Dan Marotta wrote on 3/29/2020 10:03 AM:
I'm not a subscriber to WSJ (so I couldn't read the article), but my concern
throughout all of this is that nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible
reason for these exceptional measures considering the death tolls from previous
epidemics and pandemics such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, etc.Â* Sure, I'm being
hygienic, and not joining public gatherings, but the death tolls from the above
mentioned diseases seem to be to have been much higher and there was never any
sort of panic like that we're experiencing now.

Please, someone, make some sense of it to me.Â* And giving me panic speeches about
how bad it /could/ be in light of experience with pandemics of the past 30 years
or so won't carry much weight.

On 3/28/2020 8:19 PM, Duster wrote:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

I can tell you a little bit upfront:

-Ebola is not nearly as contagious, as it is passed by direct contact with bodily
fluids
-Swine flu H1N1 was not nearly as contagious, or as fatal

This article compares the pandemics from 1918 to now:

https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...9-flu-pandemic

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I think this thread is making me queasy..

reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk

Spoken like a true socialist. Once again any opinion contrary to the party line is denegrated. I’m not and never will tell you how to live your life, what to believe or what to fly. Is my “ammo� such a threat to you? I’m sorry about that.

Finger Lakes Soaring in Upstate, New York (340 miles from NYC) is shut down until further notice. Most of our CFI-Gs are past 60 yrs. We always start the season off with a Spring Check Ride, with an instructor, for all members including the instructors. As the club instructor most advanced into geezerhood, I'm not getting into an enclosed cockpit with anyone for a quite a while. Our season may have to start with solo only for experienced pilots and no instruction.

Chuck Zabinski

And oh by the way, this current crisis and its results on folks living in other parts of the country is exact living proof of the soundness of my choice of where to live. Good luck with things over your way. If we end up in total depression and zombie apocalipse and marshall law,(prob not this time round but maybe next time) you will definitely need the ammo more than I will.

Its called independent self reliant thinking, something rarely found these days with abnormal dependence on the gov’t to look after you, good luck with that.

Personal preparation alliviates living in fear.
Dan