Great Britain - soaring weather forecasts

As an experiment, for at least two months I will be producing soaring
weather forecasts for Great Britain, available daily each morning.
These forecasts are based upon techniques which have proved successful
in the US for several years now, but Great Britain is a different kettle
of fish (and likely difficult to forecast) and the forecast modelling
technique used differs somewhat, so forecast usefulness can only be
evaluated by those on the spot.

I am aware of the soaring forecasts currently being made by Jack
Harrison but these are quite different, sort of apples vs. oranges.
His forecasts have the advantage of providing easily understood
summaries by a human forecaster who can add his experience to the mix,
and are provided up to 5 days in advance. My forecasts are only for
the current day and are automated, providing maps to be evaluated by
the user - but I should emphasize that the maps are mainly of
_soaring_ parameters intended to answer questions of interest to a
pilot, not simply _meteorological_ parameters which need further
interpretation. The advantages of these forecasts are that they are
available in the morning (utilizing the latest sounding data taken
during the night) and that they are based upon sounding forecasts at 4
km intervals, a level of detail not available from the usual
forecasts. Such detail allows use of the eye's pattern recognition
ability to evaluate the forecast, rather than having to evaluate data
from widely spaced forecast soundings (though of course one can't
expect every wiggle they depict to be accurate!).

These forecasts are mainly for the meteorology-minded since a single
summary number is not provided. And they can require some
self-education (though that can't be too hard since over 2000 US
pilots actively use them in the US) as individualized assistance is
not provided. At first glance the website can seem intimidating since
so many parameters are forecast - but most of those are "supplemental"
forecasts to be used as necessary and many users are content to look
at only the one or two they consider most important, such as the
expected lift strength or maximum (dry) thermalling height or cloud
base height.

The forecast maps themselves are available via
http://www.drjack.info/RASP/GREATBRITAIN/index.html

Links on that page are provided to brief descriptions of the
parameters and to additional reading material. Additional information
for first time users is available at
http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/help.html

Comments which I will read, and sometimes respond to, can be posted at
http://www.drjack.info/cgi-bin/rasp-forum.cgi
I am particularly interested in comments on the area covered, since
the present forecast area was created ad hoc and can be altered.

My intent is to produce soaring weather forecasts which provide a
better soaring experience for the weather-interested pilot who wishes
to better evaluate soaring conditions. The experience in the US is
that such maps have been particularly useful to cross-country soaring
pilots, since they allow evaluation of conditions away from the home
field. If this experiment is successful, the goal would then be to
have these forecast run on a more permanent basis by someone with
available resources in Great Britain. If unsuccessful and they end up
not being utilized, I'll discontinue them to focus on soaring
forecasts elsewhere.

"Dr Jack" Glendening

At 08:00 02 August 2005, Jack Glendening wrote:
As an experiment, for at least two months I will be
producing soaring
weather forecasts for Great Britain, available daily
each morning.

This looks very useful and will be much appreciated
by UK glider pilots. With the summer we are having
we need every bit of help possible to spot any soarable
weather.

This is really excellent. Are you going to post this
news on uk.rec.aviation.soaring (via www.gliderpilot.net)
as well?

John Galloway.

At 08:00 02 August 2005, Jack Glendening wrote:
As an experiment, for at least two months I will be
producing soaring
weather forecasts for Great Britain, available daily
each morning.
These forecasts are based upon techniques which have
proved successful
in the US for several years now, but Great Britain
is a different kettle
of fish (and likely difficult to forecast) and the
forecast modelling
technique used differs somewhat, so forecast usefulness
can only be
evaluated by those on the spot.

I am aware of the soaring forecasts currently being
made by Jack
Harrison but these are quite different, sort of apples
vs. oranges.
His forecasts have the advantage of providing easily
understood
summaries by a human forecaster who can add his experience
to the mix,
and are provided up to 5 days in advance. My forecasts
are only for
the current day and are automated, providing maps to
be evaluated by
the user - but I should emphasize that the maps are
mainly of
_soaring_ parameters intended to answer questions of
interest to a
pilot, not simply _meteorological_ parameters which
need further
interpretation. The advantages of these forecasts
are that they are
available in the morning (utilizing the latest sounding
data taken
during the night) and that they are based upon sounding
forecasts at 4
km intervals, a level of detail not available from
the usual
forecasts. Such detail allows use of the eye's pattern
recognition
ability to evaluate the forecast, rather than having
to evaluate data
from widely spaced forecast soundings (though of course
one can't
expect every wiggle they depict to be accurate!).

These forecasts are mainly for the meteorology-minded
since a single
summary number is not provided. And they can require
some
self-education (though that can't be too hard since
over 2000 US
pilots actively use them in the US) as individualized
assistance is
not provided. At first glance the website can seem
intimidating since
so many parameters are forecast - but most of those
are 'supplemental'
forecasts to be used as necessary and many users are
content to look
at only the one or two they consider most important,
such as the
expected lift strength or maximum (dry) thermalling
height or cloud
base height.

The forecast maps themselves are available via
http://www.drjack.info/RASP/GREATBRITAIN/index.html

Links on that page are provided to brief descriptions
of the
parameters and to additional reading material. Additional
information
for first time users is available at
http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/help.html

Comments which I will read, and sometimes respond to,
can be posted at
http://www.drjack.info/cgi-bin/rasp-forum.cgi
I am particularly interested in comments on the area
covered, since
the present forecast area was created ad hoc and can
be altered.

My intent is to produce soaring weather forecasts which
provide a
better soaring experience for the weather-interested
pilot who wishes
to better evaluate soaring conditions. The experience
in the US is
that such maps have been particularly useful to cross-country
soaring
pilots, since they allow evaluation of conditions away
from the home
field. If this experiment is successful, the goal
would then be to
have these forecast run on a more permanent basis by
someone with
available resources in Great Britain. If unsuccessful
and they end up
not being utilized, I'll discontinue them to focus
on soaring
forecasts elsewhere.

'Dr Jack' Glendening

John Galloway wrote:
This is really excellent. Are you going to post this
news on uk.rec.aviation.soaring (via www.gliderpilot.net)
as well?
John Galloway.

Frankly I didn't know there was a uk.rec.aviation.soaring. Is it
possible for you to post a copy there for me?

Jack

OK

At 23:06 02 August 2005, Jack Glendening wrote:
John Galloway wrote:
This is really excellent. Are you going to post this
news on uk.rec.aviation.soaring (via www.gliderpilot.net)
as well?
John Galloway.

Frankly I didn't know there was a uk.rec.aviation.soaring.
Is it
possible for you to post a copy there for me?

Jack