Is Bush doomed?

Is Bush Doomed?
by Paul Craig Roberts

Fear must be coursing through President Bush's veins as he realizes
the Iraqi trap in which the neocons have placed him. Bush is caught
between an Iraqi civil war and a wider insurgency.

Desperate to extricate himself from the weekly carnage well before the
November election, Bush can neither deliver on his promise of
democracy via direct elections nor impose his plan for an Iraqi
assembly elected indirectly by caucuses.

If Bush delivers on his democracy promise, the Shi'ites with 60% of
the population will be elected, and the country will break out in
civil war. If he tries to water down Shi'ite representation with his
plan for an assembly elected indirectly by caucuses, the so far
peaceful Shi'ites are likely to join the violence.

If the Shi'ites become violent, the insurgency would be too large to
be contained by our present occupying force. Moreover, the outbreak of
a general rebellion in Iraq would spill over throughout the Middle
East where unpopular secular rulers are sitting on a smoldering Islam.
Our puppet in Pakistan would likely bite the dust. Israel would then
face countervailing Muslim nukes.

If you think more US troops are needed now in Iraq, imagine how many
more would be required to deal with a wider conflagration. Where would
they come from? The US military is already so thinly stretched that
soon 40% of the occupying troops will be drawn from the National Guard
and reservists, resulting in tremendous disruption in the affairs of
tens of thousands of families.

Pilots and troops are shunning the cash bonuses offered for
reenlistments. The troops recognize a quagmire even if their neocon
overlords cannot. The only source of troops is the draft.

A Shi'ite insurgency that brought back the draft would deprive Bush of
reelection. A civil war with the prospect of a Kurdish state would
bring in the Turks. On January 14 Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said
that Turkey will intervene in the event of Iraq's disintegration.

The Shi'ites and the Turks are forming an alliance as both have the
same interest in maintaining the geographical integrity of the Iraqi
state. The US could come dangerously close to military conflict with a
NATO ally.

All of this was perfectly clear well in advance of the ill-considered
invasion. If Bush wasn't smart enough to see it, why didn't his
National Security Advisor or his Secretary of State? How did a handful
of neocon ideologues hijack US foreign policy?

Bush did not campaign on a neocon policy of conquest in the Middle
East. There was no public debate over this policy. The invasion of
Iraq was the private agenda of the neocons.

Why have the neocons not been held responsible for their treason in
abusing their presidential appointments to substitute their personal
agenda for America's agenda?

Bush has been the neocon's puppet for so long that he is now stuck
with responsibility for their horrible mistake. With no way of his own
to get out of his trap, his arrogance toward the "irrelevant" UN and
our doubting allies has disappeared. Come bail me out, he pleads.

Bush, desperate to be extricated before doom strikes him is
experiencing a reality totally different from the chest-thumping of
neocon megalomaniacs, such as Charles Krauthammer, who declared the US
so powerful as to be able to "reshape, indeed remake, reality on its
own."

Bush now knows that he lacks the power to deal with the reality of
Iraq. Indeed, Bush cannot even deal with his own appointees.

January 17, 2004

Dr. Roberts [send him mail] is John M. Olin Fellow at the Institute
for Political Economy, Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover
Institution, Stanford University, and Research Fellow at the
Independent Institute. He is a former associate editor of the Wall
Street Journal and a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury.
He is the co-author of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.

Copyright © 2004 Creators Syndicate

Paul Craig Roberts Archives





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"John Galt" wrote

Is Bush Doomed?

No one votes anymore. He's got just as much chance as any other
loser in politics.

"John Galt" wrote in message
om...
Is Bush Doomed?

He's doing very well in the polls for someone who is doomed! This is
wishful thinking by the do-nothing left.

Jarg

"John Galt" wrote in message
om...
Is Bushsnip

Why did you cross post this to a firearm discussion group?

"betweentheeyes" wrote in message
newsMlOb.75767$sv6.174031@attbi_s52...
"John Galt" wrote in message
om...
Is Bushsnip

Why did you cross post this to a firearm discussion group?

What better way to ensure a massive flamewar?

tim gueguen 101867

"Gene Storey" wrote in message news:gPjOb.495$ce2.323@okepread03...
"John Galt" wrote

Is Bush Doomed?

Carman wrote:
Only in the sense that you, I, and everyone else is doomed.
His political future is looking pretty good. You should get
ready for four more years of lower taxes and robust economy.

No one votes anymore.

Carman wrote:
You mean you can't be bothered. The world is run by those
who show up. If you'd rather stay at home and watch events
as interpreted for you by Disney and CNN that's fine. Just
don't be too surprised when it fails to make sense.

He's got just as much chance as any other loser in politics.

Carman wrote:
GWB a loser? Are you serious? I guess you do watch a lot of
television.

In article oMlOb.75767$sv6.174031@attbi_s52,on Sun, 18 Jan 2004 01:59:48
GMT,
betweentheeyes attempted to say.....
"John Galt" wrote in message
om...
Is Bushsnip

Why did you cross post this to a firearm discussion group?

Because he's a paranoid, black helicopter kind of guy...


--
When dealing with propaganda terminology one sometimes always speaks in
variable absolutes. This is not to be mistaken for an unbiased slant.

On Sun, 18 Jan 2004 01:59:48 GMT, in
newsMlOb.75767$sv6.174031@attbi_s52, betweentheeyes wrote:

[followups set to us.military.army]

Is Bushsnip

Why did you cross post this to a firearm discussion group?

To get people like you posting asking why he was posting this to a firearm
discussion group so people like me would post telling you why he was posting
this to a firearm discussion group? ;-)

Dave
--
You can talk about us, but you can't talk without us!
US Army Signal Corps!!

http://www.geocities.com/davidcasey98
Added Patriot live fire pics from June 2002,
Bosque fire pics from June 2003, CQB training
pics from October 2003, FTX pics from October 2000,
NBC training pics from September 2000, and
Dining Out pics from October 2000!

On Sun, 18 Jan 2004 07:45:34 GMT, in
, David Casey wrote:

[followups set to us.military.army]

Oops, maybe not. This time for sure. :-)

Dave
--
You can talk about us, but you can't talk without us!
US Army Signal Corps!!

http://www.geocities.com/davidcasey98
Added Patriot live fire pics from June 2002,
Bosque fire pics from June 2003, CQB training
pics from October 2003, FTX pics from October 2000,
NBC training pics from September 2000, and
Dining Out pics from October 2000!

So did his father at this time of the election . I think Bush SR had 70%
approval and still lost. To be fair I have to mention that Bush SR had Perot
to deal with. More than likely Bush SR would have won reelection in 92 if
Perot had not run. If the economy gets better Bush will probably win unless
Iraq turns into a disastaer soon.



"Jarg" wrote in message
om...

"John Galt" wrote in message
om...
Is Bush Doomed?

He's doing very well in the polls for someone who is doomed! This is
wishful thinking by the do-nothing left.

Jarg