Are asking prices really as unrealistic as they look

"Dude" wrote
If it is your assumption that most airplanes are turds, and you then decide
that the ones with interior and paint maintained are still most likely
turds, then I may go with you on that one. Depending on how old a plane is,
ones idea of "turd" may change. 90% is too high a number though, especially
if you find a bad jug as acceptable.

No, in my experience 90% is about right. And here's the problem with
a bad jug - the best maintained planes get them. You can't tell
without doing a compression check - the power loss is not noticeable.
So if you're buying a plane, and you do the first compression check
the plane has had since annual, 4 months and 4 hours ago...

If you think buyers typically pay too much attention to the paint and
interior quality then you are completely correct. So if you want to sell
aplane, no matter how good the mechanicals are, painting it is a good idea.

No argument.

If it is your belief that nothing can be told from fresh paint and interior
vs. not so nice same, then you are wrong. Based on those facts as well as
an intuitive look at the owner, his mechanic, and the log books you can get
some good ideas on how suspicious you should be.

No. The look at the owner, mechanic, and logbooks tells you a lot.
The fresh paint and interior never tell you anything positive. They
MAY tell you something negative.

For instance. The owner is crisply dressed, makes or has a lot of money, is
moving up to more plane, drives an expensive late model car (no dents,
waxed), and his hangar is neat and tidy (or he uses a hangar service that
pulls the plane for him). The mechanic has a neat, clean shop. The plane
and log books are compulsively neat and clean. This plane is likely to be a
winner, no matter what the paint and interior condition

Bingo. Paint and interior tell you nothing at that point.

but you and I know
this guy has a nice interior and paint.

Almost certainly. Only way he won't is if he bought the plane ratty,
started to upgrade it, paid attention to the important stuff first -
and then decided he needed more plane than he has so is trading up.
Not likely, which is why most of those planes will have nice interior
and paint. Also they will bring top dollar.

On the other hand. Take a slob owner, who is trading down, or out. Combine
that with a mechanic working out of the back of an '89 buick. This plane is
desiring a serious amount of skepticism. If the paint is new - walk away.

Again - agree. So the new paint has told you something about the
plane - but it's negative.

If its old, this doesn't tell you much

Right again. Maybe the owner and mechanic are just slobs, maybe
they're mechanically sloppy too. You don't know. Old paint told you
nothing. But new paint told you to walk away. This is exactly what I
was talking about.

but you want to look for things they
may not be telling you because there is a good chance they cannot afford the
repair. Can you afford the prebuy on this plane?

Good question. If you're going in cold as a novice and making the
decision to call in the mechanic on your evaluation - the answer is
probably not. If you have the benefit of an experienced owner with
you who knows the type, don't walk away so fast. In an hour or two of
looking at plane and logs, he will either tell you it's a turd (90%
probability) or tell you that it looks good to him. If the latter,
get the mechanic for the prebuy. But not any mechanic - you need one
who really knows the type and knows where the bodies are buried. Of
course that's the case anyway.

Now, you have a retired guy, who seems the responsible type who wants to
sell his plane. His mechanic is rough around the edges and curses a lot,
but he seems to know his stuff. The paint and interior are old or original,
but clean. The logs look to be in order, and everything seems to work on the
plane except the Loran (which is placarded). Now, I find nothing suspicious
here either. This is likely worth a prebuy.

Once again I agree. What's more, this plane is probably the best deal
going.

Can you see where I am going Michael? The plane's condition has to fit the
rest of the story. Saying you should walk away from nice paint and interior
seems a bit foolish.

It is, and that's not what I said. What I did say is that nice paint
and interior never tell you anything positive. Sometimes they're a
certain sign that you should walk away, other times they're just an
expected part of the picture.

I can tell you that a seller who wants top dollar will
put paint or interior on anything that needs it. Personally, I would rather
do that myself as a new buyer, but most buyers do not respond this way.

Once again, I completely agree.

In the end, nothing really works but a good prebuy.

Once again - I agree 100%.

Michael

No, in my experience 90% is about right. And here's the problem with
a bad jug - the best maintained planes get them. You can't tell
without doing a compression check - the power loss is not noticeable.

In my case, the Warrior had a thorough pre-buy, by a reputable shop, the
compressions were great -- but the jug nevertheless failed a few months
later, because the engine was actually missing a critical internal part. No
pre-buy on earth would have detected that missing rotator cap -- unless they
were tearing the engine down.

Buying an old plane is always a roll of the dice, but -- had I known then
what I know now -- I would have more thoroughly researched the *seller*, not
so much the aircraft.

The seller was an FBO manager, from Marshfield, WI. I found out later that
he was apparently selling off his aircraft to pay his way out of bankruptcy.
Had I known that at the time, I would have walked away from the table, since
a guy going bankrupt is NOT going to be able to maintain an aircraft
properly. That missing rotator cap -- left out because he probably had the
wrong length push-rod in stock -- could have killed me.

Ah, well. It's now the finest Warrior, anywhere -- so all's well that ends
well.

(Besides, I'd have just spent all that money in the bars probably anyway...)

;-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote
In my case, the Warrior had a thorough pre-buy, by a reputable shop

No, we've already established that the shop was disreputable.

the compressions were great

Were they? Or was the prop wiggled until they looked good? Have you
ever done a compression check yourself? Did you watch them do the
compression check? Unless the answer to both questions is yes, how do
you know it was done properly?

but the jug nevertheless failed a few months
later, because the engine was actually missing a critical internal part.

Yes, we know. But what we don't know is if there was already a worked
spot on the jug that a proper compression check would have detected.
Maybe yes, maybe no. We're never going to know, either. Sometimes
jugs fail because an error was made in the assembly. Sometimes they
fail because of a manufacturing defect. Sometimes they fail because
of the way they are operated. Replacing jugs is a fact of life.

Buying an old plane is always a roll of the dice, but -- had I known then
what I know now -- I would have more thoroughly researched the *seller*, not
so much the aircraft.

Yes, if you don't know much about aircraft but know a lot about
people, that might be your best bet. But aircraft are a lot easier to
inspect - if you know how.

The seller was an FBO manager, from Marshfield, WI. I found out later that
he was apparently selling off his aircraft to pay his way out of bankruptcy.
Had I known that at the time, I would have walked away from the table, since
a guy going bankrupt is NOT going to be able to maintain an aircraft
properly.

He could afford nice paint and interior though...

That missing rotator cap -- left out because he probably had the
wrong length push-rod in stock -- could have killed me.

If a failed jug can kill you, maybe you need to rethink the way you
fly. Jugs fail, for all sorts of reasons, and with depressing
regularity. And BTW, pushrods are cheap and you can get them quickly.
More than likely, he left out the part by mistake.

Michael

I don't know for sure but I'd bet that Vref prices are high becasue the
dealers who report sales tend to either report them too high or they ONLY
report the ones that sell high.

Vref and Aircraft Blue Book get their data from dealers who report sales to
them. It serves the dealers interests to keep prices high, so they serve
themselves by mis-reporting aircraft sale values in such a way as to inflate
the Blue Book and Vref prices.

Just a theory.

I appreciate the sentiment, but I doubt it is true. You are right about
where the data comes from, but I wouldn't suspect the dealers to that
degree. My guess is that planes sold through dealers simply get sold
for more money than the average.

Anyone know the ratio of dealer- or broker-sold aircraft to those sold
through private parties?

Howard wrote:

I don't know for sure but I'd bet that Vref prices are high becasue the
dealers who report sales tend to either report them too high or they ONLY
report the ones that sell high.

Vref and Aircraft Blue Book get their data from dealers who report sales to
them. It serves the dealers interests to keep prices high, so they serve
themselves by mis-reporting aircraft sale values in such a way as to inflate
the Blue Book and Vref prices.

Just a theory.

Only a few dealer/brokers keep very much inventory. Many of their planes
are brokered, so its not really theirs. Consequently, they mostly do not
care about the prices. They make money on the margin, so propping up prices
with lies would be a stretch.

Small firms, and FBO's who sideline in planes often have a very low cost of
sale because they have a facility already, or the owner is also the sales
person. They do not have to mark planes up as much, but they have little
room to help you out if you get a lemon.

Large firms, and new plane dealers have to make a lot of money on each sale
due to overhead. Also, a dealer who deals in a certain make generally gets
a higher price on that make because he is expected to stand behind it to
protect his reputation. These guys are not necessarily going to be there for
you if there is a problem, but they generally have a little more ability to
help. Some are still just jerks, so watch out.

One important thing that will prop up averages is the tax code. Plane deals
with trades involved sometimes get inflated because one side perceives a tax
advantage to the higher costs, and the other doesn't care. Another is
owners pride. Just like a car trade, they can inflate your trade in instead
of giving a discount on your new car.

For a tax advantage example, say the 206 is going to be a company plane, and
it will be depreciated, so the dealer charges you over list price on the new
plane and gives you a high trade in on your trade. He only cares about the
difference, but you can now depreciate more on the new plane. Of course,
this only works if there is no tax penalty on the trade side, where there
often is.




"Elwood Dowd" wrote in message
...
I appreciate the sentiment, but I doubt it is true. You are right about
where the data comes from, but I wouldn't suspect the dealers to that
degree. My guess is that planes sold through dealers simply get sold
for more money than the average.

Anyone know the ratio of dealer- or broker-sold aircraft to those sold
through private parties?

Howard wrote:

I don't know for sure but I'd bet that Vref prices are high becasue the
dealers who report sales tend to either report them too high or they
ONLY
report the ones that sell high.

Vref and Aircraft Blue Book get their data from dealers who report sales
to
them. It serves the dealers interests to keep prices high, so they
serve
themselves by mis-reporting aircraft sale values in such a way as to
inflate
the Blue Book and Vref prices.

Just a theory.