About when did a US/CCCP war become suicidal?

"Derek Lyons" wrote in message
...
(Jack Linthicum) wrote:

I would say that MacNamara, as usual, is not correct.

MacNamara is busily trying to re-invent his role and his place in
history.

I think a good description of MacNamara is that he is highly intelligent man
who was (is?) highly misguided and gives little thought to the opinions of
ours.

In article , "james_anatidae"
wrote:

"Derek Lyons" wrote in message
...
(Jack Linthicum) wrote:

I would say that MacNamara, as usual, is not correct.

MacNamara is busily trying to re-invent his role and his place in
history.

I think a good description of MacNamara is that he is highly intelligent
man
who was (is?) highly misguided and gives little thought to the opinions
of
ours.



But how could he POSSIBLY be misguided by following his own opinions? :-)

Seriously, in the latter phases of the Johnson administration, he found
his intellectual framework, "everything could be quantified and managed
with numbers", had failed. Not to excuse him, but he was an emotional
basket case well before he resigned as SecDef, and gave even worse
advice.

I was just looking at my copy of Kissinger's _Nuclear Weapons and
Foreign Policy_ (1957), which specifically mentions finding alternatives
to MAD. So, we have evidence that MAD was clearly a theoretical concept
in the mid-fifties, giving the time lag in publishing books. From 1953
to 1956, Kissinger was study director for nuclear weapons at the Council
on Foreign Relations.

SNIP
Size and Weight. Nobody was capable of putting a 30-40 ton warhead of
that size at those heights. Well, that, and atmospheric attenuation -
all the prompt stuff, and the heat, gets absobed pretty quickly by the
Atmosphere, and there'd be no fallout. There would, if you chose the
right height, be pretty severe EMP effects, but you don't need a
whopping huge bomb for that.
SNIP:
No fall out? The 100 MT was achieved by wrapping a multi-ton U238
jacket about Ivan. The fast neutrons from Ivan fission the U238 and
now you have multi tons of fallout added to Ivan. This of course is
the fission-fusion-fission
bomb in mega-size. I make the fireball from 100MT about 67,000 feet in
diameter.
using known sizes and the W^1/3 relation. Walt BJ

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...
"Carey Sublette" wrote:

:In Stalin's day of course he would have grown radioactive wheat and fed
it
:to the population.

Note that this is what they are doing right now with produce from the
Chernobyl area.

:It would have saved them from starvation and immediate
:death, but given them a lifespan much reduced from normal.

People grossly overestimate the effects of radiation. Not so much
reduced at all. A few years lower on average, at most.

I believe you underestimate how radioactive the wheat would have been in
fields downwind from a few hundred 400 kt ground bursts. This would be
1000-10,000 times more contaminated than any from Chernobyl. Of course, by
mixing this with wheat grown elsewhere the individual exposure could be
considerably reduced b distributing over a large population (Russia and
Ukraine are doing this with Chernobyl wheat also).

In article ,
(WaltBJ) writes:
SNIP
Size and Weight. Nobody was capable of putting a 30-40 ton warhead of
that size at those heights. Well, that, and atmospheric attenuation -
all the prompt stuff, and the heat, gets absobed pretty quickly by the
Atmosphere, and there'd be no fallout. There would, if you chose the
right height, be pretty severe EMP effects, but you don't need a
whopping huge bomb for that.
SNIP:
No fall out? The 100 MT was achieved by wrapping a multi-ton U238
jacket about Ivan. The fast neutrons from Ivan fission the U238 and
now you have multi tons of fallout added to Ivan. This of course is
the fission-fusion-fission
bomb in mega-size. I make the fireball from 100MT about 67,000 feet in
diameter.
using known sizes and the W^1/3 relation. Walt BJ

I should have said "relatively little fallout" Even with 20 tons of
vaporized casing, it's still a fairly small amount compared to the
contribution of even a moderate sized ground burst.

I was addressing Mr. Adam's contention that it was conceivable to, on
a clear day, depopulate the U.S with a set of 100 MT burts at 100+
miles in height. That's right out - the air's too thick, for those of
us on the surface.
Not that I'd want to be sitting next to one, mind you. IIRC, Ivan
scorched the RC-135 that was monitoring the test from some presumed
safe (ANd unintercepted) distance. I wonder what happened to the
Tu-95 that dropped it?

--
Pete Stickney
A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many
bad measures. -- Daniel Webster

"John Schilling" wrote in message
...
"Carey Sublette" writes:

The fundamental reason why 'Ivan', the Tsar Bomba, had no relevance to
the
strategic balance was that it was undeliverable against the U.S. The
weight
of this bomb - 27 tonnes - was nearly equal to the Tu-95's maximum
payload,
and two and a half times its normal weapon load. Range of the Tu-95 was
already marginal for attacking the U.S. even with a normal bomb load.
Even
worse, since the bomb's dimensions - 2 meters wide and 8 meters long -
were
larger than the bomb bay could accommodate part of the fuselage had to be
cut away, and the bomb bay doors removed. The bomb was partially recessed
in
the plane, but not enclosed, with over half of it protruding in flight. A
deployed version of a Tsar Bomba carrier would of course had a bulging
bomb
bay enclosure added, but this would have further reduced range from the
drag.


Wouldn't a deployed Tsar Bomba carrier have been a militarized Proton,
aka UR-500 aka 8K82? The space launch version uses only storable
propellants, can put twenty tons into low orbit with the smallest
fairing easily holding a 2 x 8 meter payload, and my references on
the space launch side claim that it was developed with the ICBM role
and the Tsar Bomba payload in mind from the start (1961).

Which was a stupid idea from the start, and so never implemented,
but rather less stupid than trying to send an overladen Bear across
the arctic.

The only references I recall seeing for models that were actually made were
bomb versions. They could have been used against NATO (but this has nothing
to do with MAD).

It seems likely that they investigated the Proton idea since it is the only
way to get it to America. Do you know of any attempts to develop an RV for
this? Can you give me any specific citations?

In article ,
(Jack Linthicum) writes:
(Peter Stickney) wrote in message ...
In article ,
"George Z. Bush" writes:

http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol09/91/91krep.pdf which argues MAD came
about after the various treaties had established offensive missiles
but prohibited defensive missiles. Everyone tries to put a date on MAD
but I would argue that once Herman Kahn starting having his little
briefings on winning thermonuclear war the idea was fertilized and the
gestation period a matter of how you determine whether an idea is born
in the brain or on paper.

I've no doubt that Kahn, and, perhaps, a few others, thought up, or
bought into, the idea in the late '50s. That doesn't mean that it was
accepted, however, or, more importantly, implemented, in that era.
And it most certainly wasn't. In my opinion, the point that MAD could
be considered accepted is the point at which _both_ the U.S.A and the
U.S.S.R. decided that there wasn't any point in increasing their
strategic arsenals further. There was a sea-change for teh U.S. in
the mid '60s - The B-47s were retired without replacenment, The
cryogenically-fuelled (Well, Oxidized, really, but you know what I
mean) ICBMs were gone, the Titan II deployment was held to 54
missiles, the Minuteman deployment was complete, and teh SLBM fleet
was under way. The Soviets took a bit longer to catch up - they
didn't have any confidence in their manned bombers, and for all their
early demonstrations in the Space Race, their ICBM abilities were
poor, and their SLBM capability was worse. I'd say late '60s or so,
for them - let's fix it at the point where they were willing to
negotiate SALT I.

Snip Wikipedia Article. All very nice, but Wikipedia is being built
up by folks like you and me - its contents are only as rigorous as its
authors.

There were lots of wonky ideas floating around wrt what shape Global
Thermonuclear War would take. One of my favorite pieces of
foolishness was the Turtles - Giant Robotic Bomb Carriers, impervious
to al weapons, able to wade the deepest oceans, which would be
directed toward an enemy's targets to scare the into surrendering by
their slowly creeping menace.
That doesn't mean that the idea was accepted.

--
Pete Stickney
A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many
bad measures. -- Daniel Webster

(Peter Stickney) wrote in message ...
In article ,
(Tom Adams) writes:
(Tom Adams) wrote in message . com...
"james_anatidae" wrote in message ...
I was wondering at about what point that the United States going to war with
the Soviet Union become an almost certain act of mutual destruction. I'm
assuming it sometime in 1960's or 70's, since what I've seen of the Soviet
nuclear capability before that point doesn't seem to be all that
threatening. It looks like they would have been really bad for us
Americans, but not unsurvivable.

I think October 23, 1961 is a watershed date. That is the day that
the Soviet Union exploded the Tsar Bomba, the largest bomb ever
exploded.

Note that the yield of this bomb did not represent the technical limit
on the yield of a hydrogen bomb. It is my understanding that there is
no known limit. Instead, the Tsar Bomba represents a kind of
political limit in a historical context. After the Tsar Bomba, the
politicians on both side put on the brakes.

It was possible to create a threat to kill everyone in the US or the
USSR almost instantly (on a clear day, anyway) between 1962 and 1965,
by deploying space-based high-yield orbiting hydrogen bombs.

But no such threat was ever developed. I am not sure what
considerations prevented the development of such a threat.

Size and Weight. Nobody was capable of putting a 30-40 ton warhead of
that size at those heights. Well, that, and atmospheric attenuation -
all the prompt stuff, and the heat, gets absobed pretty quickly by the
Atmosphere,

Less than half the radiant energy of the sun is absorbed.

and there'd be no fallout. There would, if you chose the
right height, be pretty severe EMP effects, but you don't need a
whopping huge bomb for that.

"Peter Stickney" wrote in message
...
In article ,
(WaltBJ) writes:
SNIP
Size and Weight. Nobody was capable of putting a 30-40 ton warhead of
that size at those heights. Well, that, and atmospheric attenuation -
all the prompt stuff, and the heat, gets absobed pretty quickly by the
Atmosphere, and there'd be no fallout. There would, if you chose the
right height, be pretty severe EMP effects, but you don't need a
whopping huge bomb for that.
SNIP:
No fall out? The 100 MT was achieved by wrapping a multi-ton U238
jacket about Ivan. The fast neutrons from Ivan fission the U238 and
now you have multi tons of fallout added to Ivan. This of course is
the fission-fusion-fission
bomb in mega-size. I make the fireball from 100MT about 67,000 feet in
diameter.
using known sizes and the W^1/3 relation. Walt BJ

I should have said "relatively little fallout" Even with 20 tons of
vaporized casing, it's still a fairly small amount compared to the
contribution of even a moderate sized ground burst.

I was addressing Mr. Adam's contention that it was conceivable to, on
a clear day, depopulate the U.S with a set of 100 MT burts at 100+
miles in height. That's right out - the air's too thick, for those of
us on the surface.
Not that I'd want to be sitting next to one, mind you. IIRC, Ivan
scorched the RC-135 that was monitoring the test from some presumed
safe (ANd unintercepted) distance. I wonder what happened to the
Tu-95 that dropped it?

The test was conducted by air dropping the bomb from a specially modified
Tu-95 "Bear A" strategic bomber piloted by mission commander Major Andrei E.
Durnovtsev. It was released at 10,500 meters, and made a parachute retarded
descent to 4000 meters before detonation. By that time the release bomber
was already in the safe zone some 45 km from away. The drop area was over
land at the Mityushikha Bay test site, on the west coast of Novaya Zemlya
Island . Durnovtsev was immediately promoted to lieutenant colonel and made
Hero of the Soviet Union. The Tu-95 was accompanied by a Tu-16 "Badger"
airborne laboratory to observe and record the test.

Carey Sublette