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Soaring already DOA for the season???



 
 
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  #51  
Old March 29th 20, 05:37 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Duster[_2_]
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Posts: 198
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...rate?_amp=true
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  #52  
Old March 29th 20, 06:23 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Mike the Strike
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 9:37:35 PM UTC-7, Duster wrote:
This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...rate?_amp=true


Reports from the UK say much the same about unidentified cases, speculating that they could be 10 to 100 times greater than the confirmed cases. They have now identified that the disease was spreading in England in mid January and could have led to over 10,000 cases before the first one was identified a month or so later. There could have been around 100,000 cases in Britain at the beginning of March. I was there then!

In late February and early March, I, my wife and sister-in-law all went down with flu-like symptoms eerily similar to those reported for coronavirus. My wife and I had travelled from TUS via LAX and LHR, picking up a rental car in London. Sure, it could have been regular flu or some other virus, but I am actually hoping it was the new one and that I now have some immunity.

Not sure I'd want to be the one opening up society, though!

Mike
  #53  
Old March 29th 20, 02:22 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Richard DalCanto
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 8:19:43 PM UTC-6, Duster wrote:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-...ay-11585088464


That author is assuming a very large denominator in order to make his conclusions, but there is plenty of data to show he is completely wrong. In the US they are only testing people with symptoms who think they have the virus, yet 90% come back negative. In Italy, if you look at health care workers that are exposed and test positive, the death rate is orders of magnitude higher than this idiot suggests. Many people seem to forget that there is a 2-4 week delay between diagnosis and death. So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.

Richard DalCanto MD, PhD
  #54  
Old March 29th 20, 02:24 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Richard DalCanto
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Posts: 35
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:23:47 PM UTC-6, Mike the Strike wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 9:37:35 PM UTC-7, Duster wrote:
This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...rate?_amp=true


Reports from the UK say much the same about unidentified cases, speculating that they could be 10 to 100 times greater than the confirmed cases. They have now identified that the disease was spreading in England in mid January and could have led to over 10,000 cases before the first one was identified a month or so later. There could have been around 100,000 cases in Britain at the beginning of March. I was there then!

In late February and early March, I, my wife and sister-in-law all went down with flu-like symptoms eerily similar to those reported for coronavirus.. My wife and I had travelled from TUS via LAX and LHR, picking up a rental car in London. Sure, it could have been regular flu or some other virus, but I am actually hoping it was the new one and that I now have some immunity.

Not sure I'd want to be the one opening up society, though!

Mike


In the US they are only testing people with symptoms who think they have it, but 90% or so come back negative. So chances are you did NOT have Covid-19, but rather the common cold or flu.
  #55  
Old March 29th 20, 02:24 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Godfrey (QT)[_2_]
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...


I remain amazed at the number of people who don't get that the real issue is the silent transmission by infected but unaware people. Talking about the "risk to me" or "areas that are not hotspots" completely misses the essence of the problem we are dealing with.
  #56  
Old March 29th 20, 02:50 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...rate?_amp=true


Thanks for a link that is open.

I find the article's numbers plausible, but take issue with the conclusion.

The published death rate was 0.3% to 3% of confirmed cases depending on available health care. These guys point out that there are lots (maybe 10x?) of unconfirmed cases so the overall rate is .06%. So maybe loosening restrictions makes economic sense.

Judging by how delayed restrictions worked out for health care systems in other countries, seems like a bad plan. Especially for old guys and health care workers.

10x more victims every 8 days is a target rich environment for the virus. These ratios apply no matter if the state had few or many cases.

This doesn't have to mean draconian measures, but you have to think. Kids in NYC are still collecting in playgrounds. I saw somebody walking their dog in HD yesterday. Masks are not the norm. Folks need to act as if everybody has the virus so few will. It feels like the reverse.

  #57  
Old March 29th 20, 03:03 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 473
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

How is the soaring in Sweden? https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...and-carries-on
  #58  
Old March 29th 20, 04:10 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
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Posts: 1,476
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

kinsell wrote on 3/28/2020 9:27 PM:
On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of
magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the
economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should
undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current
lockdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-...ay-11585088464


That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for the
newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their circulation.


*Worked for me without a subscription.* Clear your cookies or try a different
computer.


I've tried three browsers, clearing everything, but with the same results. What
browser did you use?

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

  #59  
Old March 29th 20, 04:21 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Roy B.
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Posts: 251
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

Eric:
Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
ROY
  #60  
Old March 29th 20, 04:27 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 242
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

How is the soaring in Sweden?

Hopefully pretty good. We could get there also if we stopped giving the virus a target rich environment like they did.


 




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