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#11
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I would not have gone. It looks like a high probability of ice and nothing
you could do about it if you found any. |
#12
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Some of us in this group live and fly in the Great Lakes Ice Machine. We have all learned that local knowledge alerts us to whether the conditions forecast for this area are flyable or not. Put us in the middle of a trip in another geographical area of the country and our local knowledge of the Great Lakes is still applicable, but moderated. As an example, say we want to fly from Michigan or Ohio to the East Coast. If we have read Ernie Gann's books, we know the Alleghanies are also know for their ice producing capabilities, but in a different way. Moisture can come up with a warm, low level, Low pressure system from the Gulf and collide with an upper level cold High pressure system from the northwest. The lifting action on the front side of the Low and the mountains creates an unpredictable, unstable air mass. The High may move fast and push the Low quickly off to the E-NE, or the Low may be the stronger of the two and stall over the mountains. Then the pumping action begins. Warm moist air from the Atlantic Gulf Stream gets sucked in to the NE and mixed with the cold air from Canada to the W-NW, and warm southern air and it is anyones guess where the rain ends and the snow begins. There are alot of dynamics. Or an upper level, closed Low aloft coming down from Canada will really mess with the forecast as it did this past week. The forecasts beginning a week ago Sunday changed every day with each issuance as the week progressed. Saturday was supposed to be cloudy with freezing rain moving up from Kentucky. That didn't happen until Sunday, and Saturday was cold, clear, windy day for flying. As others have posted, you have to understand the terrain beneath you. In Michigan and Ohio, you have vast stretches of flat land. Central Pennsylvania is quite hilly with some MEA's up to 4,000 and 5,000 MSL. In Ohio and Michigan, there are airports or landing strips everywhere (except SE OH) but in Central PA, it may be 50-60 nm between flat spots to land. Personally, I watch the temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface and the freezing level. The smaller the range, the less likely I am to fly. With the consolidation of Flight Service Stations, the weather available to you is less reliable than it was 25-30 years ago. AWOS/ASOS give you a snapshot of the weather, not an image. Sorry for the rambling nature, I couldn't figure out a comprehensive manner to arrange it, so it is a "stream of thought" posting. |
#13
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#14
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#15
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In article ,
Michael wrote: However, a flight assist report will be filed by ATC. This is where it's going to matter if icing was in the forecast - if there was an AIRMET. If it's forecast, it's known. You flew into it. At an aviation safety seminar (the gist of which was "please declare an emergency if you need to, and do it soon enough that we can help") an inspector from the FSDO stood up and said that the flight assist reports end up on his desk, and as a matter of policy he does not pursue certificate action based on them. Makes sense to me. I'm not saying "go fly in ice!" I just wouldn't want your comment to discourage people from declaring an emergency if they do. -- Ben Jackson http://www.ben.com/ |
#16
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The same feather is here...
I was considering to IFR solo from EMT to PAO (similar trip) on Saturday, the next day after I get the IFR ticket. Although I did not fly that day. In my mind I had confident that I would go if time and plane were available, giving the following reasons: 1. The weather was not that bad, by analyzing satellite images, airmat (no ice), ADDS and TAF in the previous night and the morning. Also, the actual weather was better than the forcast. 2. The trend was getting beter instead of getting worse toward the end of day. (TAF, Prog chart and weather.com) Actually, to prove that, all Bay area airports were clear of cloud in the Saturday evening. 3. -SHRA does not mean too much unless you have to fly through the warm front and lower level is freezing (clear ice). This will most likely not happen in south west but east coast or south (warm moisture from the ocrean south move north met with super-cold airmass) I only have to worry about the rime ice if it happen. Sorry I did not call FSS to get the actual freezing level step down. Therefore I can't answer whether it will freeze at 6k. However, it does not look like it will freeze at 6k from my past experience with forcast given that relative high ground temporatures on that day. (so the PIREPs were at 9k instead of 6k) 4. I am familiar with terrian along the route. I flew the same victor airways and approaches many times even I was only a VFR pilot. You can fly as low as 5500 VFR. Most of MEFs (max elevation figure, the big number on each block of sectional chart, which is max elevation + 500)) are lower than 5000, mostly 2k to 4k. Note that there is no MIA but MVA (max vectoring alt, controller use to vector the a/c). The MVA has 500' obstacle clearance during radar vectors. As you can see from those low MEF numbers then you can figure out how low the MVAa also are. When I was VFR, controllers could vector me and provide traffic warning when I was only 5500. Also, San Joaquin valley (0 msl) is few minutes away along my route for my icing get-off back door. For the CRQ to SBP trip, basically ocean (0 msl) is within few miles away. 5. SJC is right next to PAO for the alternate. The reasons that I did not go: 1. I have too much of the other things have to finish. That's a nightmare after put off too much of my regular duty to completed the checkride. 2. Don't have the current approach charts for North CA. -cpu |
#17
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#18
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Personally I will confess to a high level of superstition in this matter.
When "something just doesn't feel right" and I can't figure out what it is I stick to ground-pounding. We absorb and synthesize tremendous amounts of information that we don't recall individually and I think a lot of that is returned to us in the form of "gut feelings" etc. Now I know there was no causal connection here whatsoever, but you know what, man doesn't live by reason alone. -cwk. "Peter R." wrote in message ... wrote: It was a good decision to cancel. I just got a phone call, and the airplane I was going to use had an alternator/electrical system failure, today, while someone else was flying it in the pattern. Hmmm... not so fast! Hindsight is 20-20. While certainly true that you were lucky it wasn't you in IMC during this aircraft's alternator failure, IMO you cannot use this incident to validate your go/no go decision. |
#20
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I declared an emergency under somewhat questionable circumstances (I
lost a magneto at night, felt like an emergency to me). All I got was excellent flight following to touchdown and then a week later a letter from the FSDO asking me if everything came out allright. I wrote back a nice thank you note telling them that everything ended up fine and commending them on their excellent response. My impression is they probably showed it to their supervisors. There was never any question of any hearing or certificate action against me, never even a hint. My advice, if it feels like an emergency and you think it will help. Go ahead and declare it. "Bob Gardner" wrote in message news:X7gSb.178538$I06.1833391@attbi_s01... I'm on Ben's side. I've said the E word three times over the years and never even got a "call the tower." Your experience was the exception, not the rule. I have it directly from the safety guy at the controller's union that they have no interest in filing paperwork. Bob Gardner "Michael" wrote in message om... (Ben Jackson) wrote Michael wrote: However, a flight assist report will be filed by ATC. This is where it's going to matter if icing was in the forecast - if there was an AIRMET. If it's forecast, it's known. You flew into it. At an aviation safety seminar (the gist of which was "please declare an emergency if you need to, and do it soon enough that we can help") an inspector from the FSDO stood up and said that the flight assist reports end up on his desk, and as a matter of policy he does not pursue certificate action based on them. Makes sense to me. My experience is that this is simply not true. BTDT. Narrowly avoided a certificate action. What's more, the inspector in question waited 3 months before following up, thus ensuring that weather reports and forecasts from that time were no longer available for me to prove my case. That happens to be against their rules (got that from another inspector at the same FSDO) but they do it anyway because the courts have not been agressive about slapping them down for it. Michael |
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