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#11
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"Ron Wanttaja" wrote in message ... On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 23:21:42 -0500, "Maxwell" wrote: I didn't see any numbers on icing, or control failure due to ice though. Ron, was that part of the General Pilot Error figure, or did it say? The figures I posted was from my own analysis, and covered only non-training accidents in 172s and 210s from 1998-2004. I didn't find any in-flight icing accidents of these aircraft in this period, although several due to not removing frost during preflight. My process was to download the NTSB reports, read the narrative, and come to my own conclusion as to the cause. I mostly, but not always, agreed with the NTSB's probable cause. Here are the cause categories included in my database: List only snip During my analysis, I would assign an "Initiator" (my equivalent of probable cause) and check off other categories as secondary/tertiary factors as appropriate. The analysis was performed as part of a study of homebuilt accidents, published in KITPLANES magazine last year. I included the Cessna 172/210 accidents as a control group. Thanks Ron, sounds like a very educational endeavor. Sorry I missed the article, sounds like an interesting piece, especially to us Cessna guys. It's got me thinking I might reframe my question at this point, and start new post tomorrow. |
#12
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In article ,
"Dan Luke" wrote: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm From the article: "From 2002 through 2005, general aviation accounted for an annual average of 1,685 crashes and 583 deaths, making up 91 percent of all U.S. aviation crashes and 94 percent of all aviation deaths, the researchers said." That seems improbable to me. It would imply that there were an average of 166 commercial aviation crashes per year, or one every other day. It would also imply an average of 37 deaths per year from commercial aviation, or an average of 0.22 deaths per crash for a commercial accident, versus an average of 0.34 deaths per crash for GA. Given that the average commercial aircraft probably has dozens of times more passengers than the average GA aircraft, it seems improbable that the death rate per crash should be lower. It seems to me that at least one of those numbers has to be wrong, which renders them all suspect. rg |
#13
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"Kyle Boatright" wrote in message ... "Maxwell" wrote in message ... "Dan Luke" wrote in message ... Wait 'til Scary Mary gets on TV with this: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm That's priceless!!! "The higher fatality rate for general aviation crashes may be because such aircraft are not as able to withstand impact forces and protect occupants from death and severe injury as commercial aircraft are," the researchers wrote. Either Ralph Nader has a daughter, or MX has a sister. I noticed the same thing. I hope nobody got paid to make that not-so-astute observation... Government grant? |
#14
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"Kyle Boatright" wrote in message ... "Maxwell" wrote in message ... "Dan Luke" wrote in message ... Wait 'til Scary Mary gets on TV with this: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm That's priceless!!! "The higher fatality rate for general aviation crashes may be because such aircraft are not as able to withstand impact forces and protect occupants from death and severe injury as commercial aircraft are," the researchers wrote. Either Ralph Nader has a daughter, or MX has a sister. I noticed the same thing. I hope nobody got paid to make that not-so-astute observation... On second thought, IIRC, the case that drove Cessna to stop production of piston singles in the 80's was after a judgement against them for several $$$millions to the familiy of a man who flew a 172 (?) into a shear rock wall. Their argument was that better seatbelts would have saved his life. So, maybe the funding was from the Trial Lawyers Assn? Now that they only have 18 years (imagine that in automobiles) they need something else to ream the populace. http://www.pacificresearch.org/pub/s...ice/index.html The Cost of Lawsuits: According to the Pacific Research Institutes new study, Jackpot Justice, the annual social cost of the U.S. tort system is $737.4 billion, which is equivalent to an eight-percent tax on consumption, a 13-percent tax on wages. The annual price tag, or tort tax, for a family of four in terms of costs and foregone benefits is $9,827. [Source: insideronline.org] |
#15
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On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 20:09:27 -0500, "Dan Luke"
wrote in : http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm Researchers fault US small airplane flight safety 10 Apr 2007 20:00:21 GMT Source: Reuters By Will Dunham WASHINGTON, April 10 (Reuters) - Private U.S. flights, usually involving small airplanes, are 82 times more likely to be involved in a fatal crash than major airlines, researchers said on Tuesday. Writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore said these non-commercial flights account for most U.S. aviation crashes, injuries and deaths. They called these so-called general aviation flights a public safety problem and urged the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board to do more to improve safety of small airplanes. The general aviation rate of 1.31 fatal crashes per 100,000 flight hours is 82 times greater than for major airlines, said the researchers, who analyzed government statistics. The above conclusion drawn by the Johns Hopkins University researchers clearly shows their lack of comprehension of GA vs Airline flight missions and which flight operations constitute the greatest hazards. Airline flights: * Long distance legs require lots of hours but only one takeoff and one landing * Two professional pilots at the controls * An FAA certificated Dispatcher on the ground influencing flight decisions. * Able to fly above the weather * ... General Aviation flights: * Short distance legs mean many more landings and takeoffs are performed per hour than on airline routes. * Usually a single pilot at the controls * Often the pilot holds only a student certificate. * During training flights, which constitute a large percentage of GA flight hours, the corners of the flight envelope are routinely explored. * Flights conducted entirely within the Troposphere where weather exists. * ... Is it reasonable to expect the fatal crash rate per 100,000 flight hours of short training flights conducted by single, often student, pilots with an emphasis on landing and takeoff operations to compare favorably to long duration flights conducted by usually three FAA certified professional personnel with only a single takeoff and landing? Should the Johns Hopkins University researchers be chastised and dismissed for their fundamental errors leading to their faulty analysis of a subject of which they obviously possess little knowledge and understanding, yet proffer themselves as experts? [This response was provided to Reuters via this link http://www.alertnet.org/help/otherfaq.htm as no e-mail address was provided for the author of the article.] |
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On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:21:25 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote in : On Thu, 12 Apr 2007 15:01:23 GMT, Larry Dighera wrote in : no e-mail address was provided for the author of the article. But you can submit a response to this e-mail address: You can send your comments on this "research" directly to the Johns Hopkins University researchers: Guohua Li, MD, DrPH: Susan P. Baker, MPH: ================================================ Guohua Li, MD, DrPH; Guohua Li Professor Director of Research, Department of Emergency Medicine Academic Degrees MD, Beijing Medical University, 1984; MPH, Tongji Medical University, 1987; DrPH, Johns Hopkins University, 1993 Departmental Affiliation Health Policy and Management Joint Departmental Affiliations Emergency Medicine Departmental Address 5801 Smith Avenue, Suite 3220, Davis Building Baltimore, MD 21209 Email: Phone: 410-735-6419 Fax: 410-735-6425 Research and Professional Experience An epidemiologist, Dr. Li is interested in injury causation and trauma outcomes, with an emphasis on risk factors identification and policy intervention. His studies encompass innovative research methodology, injury surveillance systems, occupational safety, aging, and alcohol abuse. With funding from the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Li and colleagues are working on projects aimed at understanding and reducing injury risks facing the elderly population in occupational, driving, recreational, and home settings, and assessing the safety benefit of mandatory alcohol testing programs in aviation and motor carriers. Keywords Accident, Alcohol, Aviation, Emergency Medicine, Epidemiology, Injury, Mortality, Occupational Safety, Public Policy, Risk Factor, Statistics, Surveillance, Trauma ------------------------------------------------------- http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/emerg...ty/JHH/li.html Guohua Li, M.D., DrPH Professor Director of Research, Department of Emergency Medicine Education Beijing Medical University, Beijing, China (M.D., 1984) Tongji Medical University, Wuhan, China (M.S., 1987) Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland (Dr.P.H., 1993) Fellowship Johns Hopkins University, Health Policy and Management (1990) An epidemiologist, Dr. Li is interested in injury causation and trauma outcomes, with an emphasis on risk factors identification and policy interventions. His studies encompass innovative research methodology, injury surveillance systems, occupational safety, aging, and alcohol abuse. With funding from the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Li and colleagues are working on projects aimed at understanding and reducing injury risks facing the elderly population in occupational, driving, recreational, and home settings, and assessing the safety benefit of mandatory alcohol testing programs in aviation and motor carriers. Dr. Li has published over 100 manuscripts in the field of injury epidemiology. He is a Guggenheim Fellow, a recipient of the Kenneth Rothman Epidemiology Prize, and a Fellow of the American College of Epidemiology. ================================================== ==================== Susan P. Baker, MPH http://faculty.jhsph.edu/Default.cfm?f=Susan&l=Baker Susan Baker Professor Director, NIAAA Training Program in Alcohol, Injury, & Violence Academic Degrees MPH, Johns Hopkins 1968; ScD (Hon.), Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1998; BA, Cornell Univ., 1951 Departmental Affiliation Health Policy and Management Health and Public Policy Joint Departmental Affiliations Environmental Health Sciences Departmental Address 624 N. Broadway Baltimore MD, 21205 Email: Phone: 410-955-2078 Fax: 410-614-2797 |
#18
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On Apr 11, 8:09 pm, "Dan Luke" wrote:
Wait 'til Scary Mary gets on TV with this: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10403256.htm No surprise to pilots. Airlines have an incredible safety record to which an undisciplined bunch of individual ragtag private pilots will never come close. -- Gene Seibel Daughter Becca's Jewelry - http://pad39a.com/stelle_sheen Because we fly, we envy no one. |
#19
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Ron Garret wrote:
Given that the average commercial aircraft probably has dozens of times more passengers than the average GA aircraft, it seems improbable that the death rate per crash should be lower. Well, remember that any flight under 121 or 135 is "commercial", so everything from a 6-seat puddle jumper to a 747-400 is included (and given the way most of the puddle jumper pilots I've seen move, I'll believe it!). Also, I believe that was the conclusion the researchers drew; that even though there are more people involved in an average commercial flight, far fewer of them are killed than on average GA flights, which should allow the hypothesis that passengers are better protected on a commercial flight (or else their crashes are less violent, it's not an absolute conclusion). Furthermore, they may be using the NTSB method of determining injury, that is a flight is "fatal" if persons expire on impact or very soon after; if they are gravely wounded and die two weeks later in the hospital, the crash itself is still classed as only "serious". It may be that commercial flights don't kill as many immediately, but the true death-tolls aren't being properly tallied. TheSmokingGnu |
#20
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"Ron Garret" wrote: It seems to me that at least one of those numbers has to be wrong, which renders them all suspect. That wouldn't matter to Scary Mary or the TV networks. -- Dan C-172RG at BFM |
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