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#31
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Wow, I asked a short question and this thread has blown into dozens
of postings. I'm glad I'm not the only who was interested in talking about this. Also I would like to thank everyone for your thoughts. I guess most of my friends will never go flying but that is their choice. Gary wrote: According to p. 1 of the Nall Report, there are 1.22 fatal accidents per 100,000 GA hours. That's one every 82,000 hours. According to p. 5, personal flying accounts for 48.1% of GA hours, but 70.8% of GA flying. That comes to one fatal accident per 56,000 hours of personal flying. That's every 560 years at 100 hours per year, or every 28 years among 20 pilots who fly 100 hours per year each. So as I said, it's roughly 1 in 20 within 25 years. Is it me or do others find all these stats just completely useless after a while since it appears that if you add all the percentages up it comes out to 14,284% (Gary I'm not pointing this next comment you *at all*) I'm starting to believe the old saying, "Statistics don't lie. The people who use statistics lie." Gary's example is pretty clear cut but most of these reports are quite comfusing. (NOTE: I took 9 semesters of math above Calculus I so my math is not exactly lacking) Gerald |
#32
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The general rule of insurance is that you insure against the unlikely event that would ruin you, not against the ordinary calamity that might be expected to come along once in a lifetime. Thus it is probably silly for me to carry hull insurance on a Piper Cub. I really don't know why I do it, except that I don't know how I'd explain to my wife if I had to scrape up $25,000 if I trashed the poor thing. But the million-dollar liability policy--that's what's important. I often regret that I can plump it up even higher. Similarly, I have thousand-dollar deductibles on my cars and house, and would go to five thousand if it were offered. all the best -- Dan Ford email: see the Warbird's Forum at www.warbirdforum.com and the Piper Cub Forum at www.pipercubforum.com |
#33
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"Gary Drescher" wrote in message news:_LvNb.59755$5V2.69373@attbi_s53... Not necessarily. You're right that the statistics reflect an unknown number of dumb decisions that you and I might never make. But they also reflect an unknown number of instances where a pilot escaped harm by exercising better skill or judgment than you or I possess. We don't know which factor predominates, so we don't know if our personal risk is greater or less than what the raw stats show. At the CAA safety evenings in the UK, they open up the discussion with the lecturer explaining saying hello, and that just by turning up, even if they didn't stay for the lecture, they're 20 (or was it 15, can't remember) times less likely to suffer a fatality than average. Nothing magical about turning up, just that people who are interested in safety in flying are those who aren't likely to have the accidents...they know what causes fatal accidents and avoid such situations. Paul |
#34
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"Paul Sengupta" wrote in message
... At the CAA safety evenings in the UK, they open up the discussion with the lecturer explaining saying hello, and that just by turning up, even if they didn't stay for the lecture, they're 20 (or was it 15, can't Sorry, I wasn't concentrating when I wrote that! Let's try again: The lecturer opens the discussion by saying hello and explaining that just by turning up... Paul |
#35
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"Paul Sengupta" wrote in message
... At the CAA safety evenings in the UK, they open up the discussion with the lecturer explaining saying hello, and that just by turning up, even if they didn't stay for the lecture, they're 20 (or was it 15, can't remember) times less likely to suffer a fatality than average. That would be an astonishing correlation, if true. Does the lecturer cite any data to support the notion that it's true? (Even if these pilots have ZERO chance of ever making a mistake of any kind, that would still make them only 3 or 4 times less likely than average to suffer a fatality.) --Gary |
#36
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All this talk about stats ( and the stats them selves don't amount to a
hill of beans) I drove 5k to 6k miles a month that's 60k to 72k a year. At the average for most people of 15k a year that made me 480% more likely to be in an serious accident. Number of accidents I was involved in "0". Keep your head, know your limits and that of the aircraft and respect the weather and your can reduce your risk. What I do when they finally agree to come flying is I make sure they know why we preflight and what to expect even when only taxiing. Most important gentle turns and maneuvers. Remember these are people who are used to seeing the bulk head separating them from first class, and not all the visual input from a light plane. You might also arrange with your FBO to taxi an airplane to the fuel pump and have one of your friends come along , sort of an introduction to a GA aircraft. worked for me in the past. |
#37
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"kilomii" wrote in message
m... All this talk about stats ( and the stats them selves don't amount to a hill of beans) Not true. Carefully interpreted, statistics tell us a great deal about the world. I drove 5k to 6k miles a month that's 60k to 72k a year. At the average for most people of 15k a year that made me 480% more likely to be in an serious accident. Number of accidents I was involved in "0". I'm not sure what conclusion you're trying to draw from this example. Statistically speaking, the number of serious car accidents you'd most likely be involved in--even at 5 times the average risk--is still closer to zero than to one, so the statistical prediction was borne out in this case. Keep your head, know your limits and that of the aircraft and respect the weather and your can reduce your risk. Yes, if you do those things, you reduce your risk below what it would be if you didn't do those things. But you don't necessarily thereby reduce your risk below the average risk among GA pilots. --Gary |
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