How safe is a new teenaged pilot?

Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

Thanks

Peter

"anon" wrote in message
news
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased
risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly
with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

Thanks

Peter

I came up this route myself, and I have a friend, Corky Fornof, who also
came up this route. Both of us soloed very young. My personal opinion is
that if the boy has had solid training and has passed the flight test with
the powers that be in your location, the odds are very good that he is a
capable and skillful pilot.
Dudley Henriques

Thank you all for your thoughtful comments. Jay Honeck is correct that my
concern was about a YOUNG new pilot, although I now understand that hours in
the air and range of experience are relevant as well. BTIZ's question is a
good one,--would I let them drive in a sports car. The answer is a resounding
yes. In fact I let these two drive across three states at 16 and they did
great, notwithstanding the smuggled fireworks in the trunk on their return. As
to me flying with the friend--not a bad idea. If I wouldn't, I certainly
shouldn't let my son.

We haven't broached this subject with mom yet. We'll see.

Thanks again for your comments and insights.

Peter

"anon" wrote in message
news
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased
risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly
with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

Thanks

Peter

I came up this route myself, and I have a friend, Corky Fornof, who also
came up this route. Both of us soloed very young. My personal opinion is
that if the boy has had solid training and has passed the flight test with
the powers that be in your location, the odds are very good that he is a
capable and skillful pilot.
Dudley Henriques

"anon" wrote in message
...
Thank you all for your thoughtful comments. Jay Honeck is correct that my
concern was about a YOUNG new pilot, although I now understand that hours
in
the air and range of experience are relevant as well. BTIZ's question is
a
good one,--would I let them drive in a sports car. The answer is a
resounding
yes. In fact I let these two drive across three states at 16 and they did
great, notwithstanding the smuggled fireworks in the trunk on their
return. As
to me flying with the friend--not a bad idea. If I wouldn't, I certainly
shouldn't let my son.

We haven't broached this subject with mom yet. We'll see.

Thanks again for your comments and insights.

As a licensed pilot, he's demonstrated the _ability_ of flying an aircraft.

As a relatively NEW pilot, he lacks experience to deal with more difficult
conditions.

The clincher, though, is: how mature is he in other aspects of his life?

If the latter is "very", then you should have no problem under good weather
and flight conditions.

Remember that all risk is _measured_.

Anywho, my boys never drove (nor desire even now) sports cars, leaning
towards pickup trucks. :~)

"anon" wrote in message
news
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased
risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly
with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

The standard reference for small-plane safety statistics is the Air Safety
Foundation's Nall Report (http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf).
As far as I know, there are no good statistics about the safety of new
pilots vs. more-experienced pilots. But I doubt new pilots are at increased
risk. It's not that pilots' skills don't continue to improve; but newer
pilots will tend to avoid more-challenging flight circumstances (weather
etc.) that more-experienced pilots might not be deterred by, so the overall
risk might remain about the same.

--Gary

Gary Drescher wrote:

"anon" wrote in message
news
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

The standard reference for small-plane safety statistics is the Air Safety
Foundation's Nall Report (http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf).
As far as I know, there are no good statistics about the safety of new
pilots vs. more-experienced pilots.

That report includes the statement that "ASF studies have shown that low
pilot time in type is often a significant contributing factor in
accidents." But I didn't see any specific data there to back it up.
The accompanying chart plots a histogram of accidents vs. PIC hours of
experience but unfortunately doesn't normalize it to the number of
pilots in each band and the number of hours flown by them.

However in this case where you personally know the pilot I would think
your judgement of his maturity would be more predictive of the risk than
any statistics based on the group of inexperienced young pilots as a whole.

"Peter" wrote in message
...
Gary Drescher wrote:
The standard reference for small-plane safety statistics is the Air
Safety Foundation's Nall Report
(http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf). As far as I know,
there are no good statistics about the safety of new pilots vs.
more-experienced pilots.

That report includes the statement that "ASF studies have shown that low
pilot time in type is often a significant contributing factor in
accidents." But I didn't see any specific data there to back it up.

Yup. Plus, low time in type is different from being recently licensed as a
pilot.

The accompanying chart plots a histogram of accidents vs. PIC hours of
experience but unfortunately doesn't normalize it to the number of pilots
in each band and the number of hours flown by them.

Yup. Paul Craig's book The Killing Zone has the same problem. Without
normalization, the data tell us nothing about how safety might vary as a
function of experience.

--Gary

On Thu, 12 May 2005 23:22:24 -0400, "Gary Drescher"
wrote:

"Peter" wrote in message
...
Gary Drescher wrote:
The standard reference for small-plane safety statistics is the Air
Safety Foundation's Nall Report
(http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf). As far as I know,
there are no good statistics about the safety of new pilots vs.
more-experienced pilots.

That report includes the statement that "ASF studies have shown that low
pilot time in type is often a significant contributing factor in
accidents." But I didn't see any specific data there to back it up.

Yup. Plus, low time in type is different from being recently licensed as a
pilot.

"It seems" as if I read some where a freshly minted pilot is one of
the safest times, but ... that is an old and foggy memory.

One of the worst times is some where around 500 hours.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


The accompanying chart plots a histogram of accidents vs. PIC hours of
experience but unfortunately doesn't normalize it to the number of pilots
in each band and the number of hours flown by them.

Yup. Paul Craig's book The Killing Zone has the same problem. Without
normalization, the data tell us nothing about how safety might vary as a
function of experience.

--Gary

Roger wrote:

On Thu, 12 May 2005 23:22:24 -0400, "Gary Drescher"
wrote:


"Peter" wrote in message
...

Gary Drescher wrote:

The standard reference for small-plane safety statistics is the Air
Safety Foundation's Nall Report
(http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf). As far as I know,
there are no good statistics about the safety of new pilots vs.
more-experienced pilots.

That report includes the statement that "ASF studies have shown that low
pilot time in type is often a significant contributing factor in
accidents." But I didn't see any specific data there to back it up.

Yup. Plus, low time in type is different from being recently licensed as a
pilot.


"It seems" as if I read some where a freshly minted pilot is one of
the safest times, but ... that is an old and foggy memory.

The report referenced above indicates that student pilots have only
about half the number of accidents (7.7%) that one would expect based on
their percentage of the total pilot population (15.3%). It also
mentions factors that may account for this: level of supervision and
flying only under good conditions.

One of the worst times is some where around 500 hours.

The accompanying chart plots a histogram of accidents vs. PIC hours of
experience but unfortunately doesn't normalize it to the number of pilots
in each band and the number of hours flown by them.

Yup. Paul Craig's book The Killing Zone has the same problem. Without
normalization, the data tell us nothing about how safety might vary as a
function of experience.

The perception that around 500 hours is more risky may come from that
non-normalized chart in the report since it shows a high percentage of
accidents associated with the pilots who had up to 500 hours of
experience as PIC. But, as mentioned before, this data needs to be
normalized relative to the number of pilots and hours flown before one
can draw any conclusions about relative safety.

That report includes the statement that "ASF studies have shown that low
pilot time in type is often a significant contributing factor in
accidents." But I didn't see any specific data there to back it up.

I think if we read "between the lines" we will find that the poster is
really concerned with this pilot's youth -- perhaps more so than with his
low flight time.

A 17 year old boy is basically a fleshy container of hormones, with great
stamina, questionable stability, and loads of bravado. This is NOT
necessarily a great fit with being a new pilot -- especially when you put
two of these guys inside the same vehicle.

There are very good reasons that car insurance for 17 year old boys costs
exponentially more than for adults. They generally have poor judgment, and
are known to end their statements -- and sometimes their lives -- with
"Watch this!"

Personally, I'd be VERY reluctant to allow my son to fly with another 17
year old boy.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"