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#21
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I have an opinion on global warming!
In article . com,
"Jay Honeck" wrote: "Reliable weather forecasts"?? Where have you EVER seen one of those? I have been a student of meterology since taking several courses in college, some 25 years ago, and am here to tell you that there are NO accurate forecast models that function beyond 12 hours out. I've been flying since 1987. In that time I've been paying close attention to weather forecast. For my area (the northeast) my undocumented observations (no pun) of the weather forecasts accuracy a 1) 12 hours forecasts have improved. So much so that winds, visibility, and cloud cover forecasts are close enough for me to make go/no-go decisions MUCH more reliably now rather than 20 years ago. 2) In 1987, 3-5 day forecasts were a joke to the point where if rain was forecast in 3 days I could start planning on maybe going flying. Weather forecasting isn't perfect, but it sure has improved for me here in the northeast. btw - back in 1984 I attended a computing symposium at Goddard Space Flight Center (if that's now the official name, sorry, but it was at Goddard). One talk of interest was the computing power needed for weather forecasting. The supercomputers used for the models in 1984 required 48 hours of wallclock time to render a 24 hour forecast. That forecast was only a bit better than 50% (?) correct. They were estimating the need for several orders of magnitude more CPU power as well as more efficient models. Well, we certainly have much more CPU power available now... -- Bob Noel (goodness, please trim replies!!!) |
#22
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I have an opinion on global warming!
On Fri, 06 Apr 2007 22:21:55 -0600, RomeoMike
wrote: Jay Honeck wrote: I have been a student of meterology since taking several courses in college, some 25 years ago Let's see, several college courses 25 years ago. Nothing, of course, has changed since then in terms of new scientific methods of studying weather, no new accumulation of knowledge by those whose full-time profession it is to study it. You shiver in an upper mid-west microcosm, so the scientists are wrong. Well, I know I'm in the minority here, but IMHO no one in this group so far has the credentials to mount a counter argument to the global warming theorists. How it affects GA is the least of my worries for my progeny. it is not about credentials. it is about data and its interpretation. has anyone seen the data? al gore presents a graph of co2 but never reveals the data behind the graph. there is no opportunity to validate or refute the data. no opportunity to get to any of the facts. one aspect of the global warming nonsense is the omission of lapse rates in the discussion. in the hottest days on the nullabor it gets to 45 deg celcius but at 14,000ft it is still zero degrees. the religion of global warming is clueless because it presents the scenario that the entire world is heating up. errr have the lapse rates ceased to function??? credentials! the pope has credentials ....but there is no god. Stealth Pilot |
#23
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I have an opinion on global warming!
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#24
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I have an opinion on global warming!
Gene Seibel writes:
That's what it is - a proposal. I figured that global warming was natural, but after a discussion on another group I did some research and now doubt it's even occurring at all. Satellite and balloon readings show no warming. Only surface measurements, and they are very susceptible to errors. For instance cities growing and encroaching on once rural measuring stations. A tenth of a degree increase and alarm bells go off. Of all the data we have, that which appears to show a warming trend is the most reliable and plentiful. It is true that we cannot prove that a definite trend is in progress, nor can we know whether it will continue. But the observation of a warming trend is far more reliable than the rampant speculation on the possible causes of that warming. The notion that burning fossil fuels is somehow causing global warming is pure speculation. I think the real factors at work here are a human tendency to egotistically believe that people can have any real influence on the planet, and a human tendency to extreme and hysterical behavior. Both of these combine to induce many human beings to see patterns where none may exist, and then to attribute those patterns to human activity. In reality, we have no idea. I think it's a good idea to reduce the use of fossil fuels simply because we don't really know how much fuel remains. Reducing greenhouse gases is secondary, because we don't really know what effect, if any, these gases might have on the weather over the long term. -- Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail. |
#25
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I have an opinion on global warming!
Jay Honeck writes:
"Reliable weather forecasts"?? Where have you EVER seen one of those? I have been a student of meterology since taking several courses in college, some 25 years ago, and am here to tell you that there are NO accurate forecast models that function beyond 12 hours out. Exactly. So how much can you trust "forecasts" for 100 years from now? -- Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail. |
#26
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I have an opinion on global warming!
RomeoMike writes:
Let's see, several college courses 25 years ago. Nothing, of course, has changed since then in terms of new scientific methods of studying weather, no new accumulation of knowledge by those whose full-time profession it is to study it. It's not necessary. The impossibility of long-term forecasting is a mathematical reality, and unavoidable. It doesn't matter what advances are made. It cannot be done. I've already explained why. Well, I know I'm in the minority here, but IMHO no one in this group so far has the credentials to mount a counter argument to the global warming theorists. The global-warming theorists have no credentials, either. Nobody really knows how the Earth's climate works on a global scale and over long periods. The theorists are no more or less likely to be right than you or Jay are. In fact, they are no more or less likely to be right than a toss of the dice. How it affects GA is the least of my worries for my progeny. The biggest danger for human beings over the long term is overpopulation. That has always been true, and it always will be true, barring some natural catastrophe on a global or galactic scale. -- Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail. |
#27
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I have an opinion on global warming!
Bob Noel writes:
btw - back in 1984 I attended a computing symposium at Goddard Space Flight Center (if that's now the official name, sorry, but it was at Goddard). One talk of interest was the computing power needed for weather forecasting. The supercomputers used for the models in 1984 required 48 hours of wallclock time to render a 24 hour forecast. That forecast was only a bit better than 50% (?) correct. They were estimating the need for several orders of magnitude more CPU power as well as more efficient models. Well, we certainly have much more CPU power available now... But we also need much more accurate and extensive data, which we do not have. The computing power and data increase more than exponentially with the length of the forecast required, because of the chaotic nature of weather. That's why weather forecasting has barely made any progress at all, even as computing power has increased by many orders of magnitude. -- Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail. |
#28
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I have an opinion on global warming!
Robert M. Gary writes:
We're told that the unusally cold temps lately are a result of global warming (ice caps melting). Thirty years ago, we were entering an ice age, according to some. I'm still waiting to find out how we also caused global warming on Mars. We can't, but an increase in solar output can do this, on both planets. Pretty cool how the weather man on TV can't guess the temp tomorrow but the global warming people can predict temps in 20 years. Maybe we need to get those guys to come up with our forecasts. They should go to Las Vegas and fund their studies with their gambling winnings, since, if they can predict the weather 20 years in advance, winning 100% at gambling should be child's play for them. -- Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail. |
#29
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I have an opinion on global warming!
Jay Honeck wrote:
These predictions are coming from the application of the same tools and techniques that have made reliable weather forecasts an everyday proposition. I don't see a "smiley" here -- so I can only conclude that your're serious? "Reliable weather forecasts"?? Where have you EVER seen one of those? I have been a student of meterology since taking several courses in college, some 25 years ago, and am here to tell you that there are NO accurate forecast models that function beyond 12 hours out. I've seen quite a few and they are better all the time. This winter the weather folks twice predicted major winter storms more than 48 hours in advance and were nearly dead-on both times. I was impressed. Matt |
#30
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I have an opinion on global warming!
Matt Whiting writes:
I've seen quite a few and they are better all the time. I still have not seen forecasts that can predict the temperature tommorrow with consistent accuracy. I still have not seen forecasts that can accurately predict rain, even only a few hours before the target time of the forecast. This winter the weather folks twice predicted major winter storms more than 48 hours in advance and were nearly dead-on both times. I was impressed. Some things are obvious from something as simple as a satellite photo, but unfortunately other types of forecasts are far more difficult. -- Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail. |
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