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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather



 
 
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  #1  
Old June 4th 07, 05:21 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Peter R.
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Posts: 1,045
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

I was listening to LiveATC.net's feed of Syracuse, NY, yesterday (Sunday)
during the approach of a large thunderstorm line that was moving towards the
airport from the south. At one point a VFR a Cessna 172, approaching the
airport from the west, checked in stating his intention to land at SYR.

As the C172 progressed, the controller called the pilot to report that the
aircraft was eight miles from and heading directly towards a line of extreme
weather. The pilot responded in a somewhat unappreciative tone that he was
"painting" it. The controller responded with a rather surprised, "Roger."

Moments later the controller again called to warn the pilot of extreme
weather at his twelve o'clock. The pilot then replied in what sounded like an
annoyed tone that he was "picking our way through the weather using our XM."
Again, the controller replied with a surprised "Roger."

With a quiet moment on the frequency, the controller called the pilot a third
time to ask him to explain what XM meant. The pilot described the concept of
XM NEXRAD on his Garmin 396, but then added that the refresh rate allowed him
to see heavy weather on the 398 from 2 to 8 minutes old.

When I heard that the refresh rate was up to 8 minutes old, I cringed to
think that this pilot (this one didn't sound like an experienced freight dog
to me, but maybe I was wrong) was picking his way through a field of
thunderstorms on a day where returns went from light to extreme in less than
ten minutes.

Granted that the pilot was VFR so presumably he was seeing and avoiding using
the outside picture primarily. But this day it was a typical northeast US
hazy and humid day with visibility around the 6 to 8 mile range, so having
the Garmin 396 for strategic avoidance was a good thing. It still made me
sweat from the comfort of my office chair to imagine that this pilot was
flying through the weather line using up to 8 minute old data (not even
considering the NEXRAD delay before the picture is uplinked to the XM
satellites) and declining the more real-time weather guidance offered by ATC
(SYR approach has excellent weather radar).

Eventually a thunderstorm cell erupted right over the airport, resulting in
numerous wind shear alerts and at least one microburst alert, so the pilot
called approach to state his intention of diverting southeast towards an
airport 50 nm south of SYR to wait out the weather.

--
Peter
  #2  
Old June 4th 07, 05:39 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Marco Leon
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Posts: 319
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

"Peter R." wrote in message
...
I was listening to LiveATC.net's feed of Syracuse, NY, yesterday (Sunday)
during the approach of a large thunderstorm line that was moving towards
the
airport from the south. At one point a VFR a Cessna 172, approaching the
airport from the west, checked in stating his intention to land at SYR.

As the C172 progressed, the controller called the pilot to report that the
aircraft was eight miles from and heading directly towards a line of
extreme
weather. The pilot responded in a somewhat unappreciative tone that he was
"painting" it. [snip]


The more I fly, the more I believe that the body of pilots that regularly do
things that most will consider "stupid pilot tricks" is larger than what
many people think. The odds are that this guy will get away with this
multiple times before he gets bit. Of course there's also a small chance
that he may never get bit hard enough to scare or kill himself.

I bet if there was a reliable way to find the number of pilots who have or
do fly in the clouds while "VFR," it would be eye-opening.

Marco


  #3  
Old June 4th 07, 06:10 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Jay Honeck
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Posts: 3,573
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

The more I fly, the more I believe that the body of pilots that regularly do
things that most will consider "stupid pilot tricks" is larger than what
many people think. The odds are that this guy will get away with this
multiple times before he gets bit. Of course there's also a small chance
that he may never get bit hard enough to scare or kill himself.


While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of
thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that
his observations were inaccurate in any way.)

In the Midwest, in summer, it's common for afternoon thunderstorms to
develop. Sometimes these are in a line (associated with a front), but
many times they are similar to Florida "pop-up" thunderstorms, in that
they build in place. We call them "popcorn storms".

Penetrating a line of storms associated with a front is dicey at best,
even with a 396/496. Flying *around* "popcorn" thunderstorms,
however, can be perfectly safe, given decent visibility. It's even
doable without XM in the plane, but the satellite data in the cockpit
makes it MUCH less stressful, mostly because you can tell where the
storms are building, and where they are subsiding. This gives you an
important strategic leg up on the situation that makes it truly easy
to stay out of trouble.

When you can see a towering cumulus cloud building into a 35,000 foot
monster over *there* -- but it's perfectly clear over *here* -- it's
pretty easy to circumnavigate the problem, and steer a wide berth away
from any potential wind shear, precipitation, or bad visibility.
This is especially true in the "big sky" Midwest, where there is
little terrain to block your view to the horizon.

Add the XM satellite data to that visual information, and you've got a
perfectly doable situation -- given the "right" kind of storms. (It
helps to be a student of weather, in order to discern the difference
-- but the differences are pretty obvious, once you know what to look
for...)

I bet if there was a reliable way to find the number of pilots who have or
do fly in the clouds while "VFR," it would be eye-opening.


I don't know any VFR pilots who would voluntarily fly into clouds.
I'm sure they exist, but I think modern flight instructors have very
thoroughly indoctrinated their students with the dangers of instrument
flight without proper instruction.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

  #4  
Old June 4th 07, 06:19 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Luke Skywalker
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Posts: 102
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

On Jun 4, 11:21 am, "Peter R." wrote:
I was listening to LiveATC.net's feed of Syracuse, NY, yesterday (Sunday)
during the approach of a large thunderstorm line that was moving towards the
airport from the south. At one point a VFR a Cessna 172, approaching the
airport from the west, checked in stating his intention to land at SYR.

As the C172 progressed, the controller called the pilot to report that the
aircraft was eight miles from and heading directly towards a line of extreme
weather. The pilot responded in a somewhat unappreciative tone that he was
"painting" it. The controller responded with a rather surprised, "Roger."

Moments later the controller again called to warn the pilot of extreme
weather at his twelve o'clock. The pilot then replied in what sounded like an
annoyed tone that he was "picking our way through the weather using our XM."
Again, the controller replied with a surprised "Roger."

With a quiet moment on the frequency, the controller called the pilot a third
time to ask him to explain what XM meant. The pilot described the concept of
XM NEXRAD on his Garmin 396, but then added that the refresh rate allowed him
to see heavy weather on the 398 from 2 to 8 minutes old.

When I heard that the refresh rate was up to 8 minutes old, I cringed to
think that this pilot (this one didn't sound like an experienced freight dog
to me, but maybe I was wrong) was picking his way through a field of
thunderstorms on a day where returns went from light to extreme in less than
ten minutes.

Granted that the pilot was VFR so presumably he was seeing and avoiding using
the outside picture primarily. But this day it was a typical northeast US
hazy and humid day with visibility around the 6 to 8 mile range, so having
the Garmin 396 for strategic avoidance was a good thing. It still made me
sweat from the comfort of my office chair to imagine that this pilot was
flying through the weather line using up to 8 minute old data (not even
considering the NEXRAD delay before the picture is uplinked to the XM
satellites) and declining the more real-time weather guidance offered by ATC
(SYR approach has excellent weather radar).

Eventually a thunderstorm cell erupted right over the airport, resulting in
numerous wind shear alerts and at least one microburst alert, so the pilot
called approach to state his intention of diverting southeast towards an
airport 50 nm south of SYR to wait out the weather.

--
Peter


Hello:

Eventually we are going to see/read about a pretty "fantastic"
accident with this kind of flying. I've done a reasonable amount of
"line" running in everything from Boeings to TriChamps (although the
latter is much more entertaining since the speed of advance of the
thurderstoms and airplane are closley matched!) with a fairly wide
range of equipment (Radar to STorm Scopes to the XM). MOST of it was
perfectly safe, there were one or two times a few years ago that I had
some "unpleasantries" occur that were fortunatly learning lessons...

But just from the blow by blow you give this pilot strikes me as not
being very clear about what he/she was doing. As you make clear, the
big deal with the XM is the delay...and in a cell/cells where
"training" is taking place that delay can be deadly.

What is fairly scary (at least to me) is that the pilot did not seem
to understand the limitations of his equipment and/or the advantages/
limitations of the ATC radar. If Syracuse has an ASR11/12 then they
have pretty good wx information. It isnt Nexrad but it is certianly
better and more real time then what the XM is showing. Visually you
can spot the "training" and this guy was VFR so that showed some
smarts...but it is not a far leap to when someone is doing this IFR
and finds that the "red" has moved to right where they are...and the
airplane they are flying is now testing the limits of structural
integrity.

the problem with all this new instrumentation is the same as pilots
found when they moved from the classic 737 into the EFIS versions (or
into complete EFIS airplanes)...the training was not up to the
standards of the equipment and people got into severe trouble.

I think that your instincts are pretty good here.

Robert

  #5  
Old June 4th 07, 06:30 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Larry Dighera
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Posts: 3,953
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

On Mon, 4 Jun 2007 12:21:35 -0400, "Peter R."
wrote in :

[Story of cluelessly inept pilot narrowly escaping disaster snipped]

Did you happen to note the aircraft's N number?

Someone should relate this incident to the appropriate FSDO office
before the tapes are wiped, so that the pilot can benefit from some
badly needed remedial WX training before his bumbling casts yet more
negative public opinion on GA, and saddens his friends and family.

  #6  
Old June 4th 07, 06:59 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Robert M. Gary
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Posts: 2,767
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

On Jun 4, 10:10 am, Jay Honeck wrote:
The more I fly, the more I believe that the body of pilots that regularly do
things that most will consider "stupid pilot tricks" is larger than what
many people think. The odds are that this guy will get away with this
multiple times before he gets bit. Of course there's also a small chance
that he may never get bit hard enough to scare or kill himself.


While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of
thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that
his observations were inaccurate in any way.)



In the SW summer TS's are frequent but usually easily
circumnavigatable VFR. I would never attempt to try IFR in that type
of weather, if you get in IMC you're probably going into a TS. VFR is
the way to go.

  #7  
Old June 4th 07, 07:03 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Peter R.
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Posts: 1,045
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

On 6/4/2007 1:30:51 PM, Larry Dighera wrote:

Did you happen to note the aircraft's N number?

Someone should relate this incident to the appropriate FSDO office
before the tapes are wiped,


Not only do I have the tail-id but I also have the exact exchange, thanks to
LiveATC.net's 40-day archive. However, Larry, I am not going to be the one to
report anyone, since IMO this is quite a gray area. I personally have a very
different take on reporting pilots to the FAA.

For education purposes, though, I thought it might be beneficial to retrieve
and edit the archive files into a short clip (and also removing the majority
of the tail ID so the resulting clip cannot be used against the pilot) with
the relevant content. When I have the clip, I will post it to a file sharing
site and the link to this thread.

--
Peter
  #8  
Old June 4th 07, 07:06 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Steve Foley
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Posts: 563
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

"Peter R." wrote in message
...

However, Larry, I am not going to be the one to
report anyone, since IMO this is quite a gray area. I personally have a
very
different take on reporting pilots to the FAA.


How about filing a NASA form? Isn't that exactly what they were designed
for?


  #9  
Old June 4th 07, 07:07 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Viperdoc
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Posts: 155
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

Just had a simliar experience today flying into PDX (portland, OR).

The onboard radar demonstrated some clear spots through heavy precip (no
electrical activity on Stormscope), while the Nexrad (which is delayed)
showed no path through.

Nexrad is great for the far away strategic planning, but is poor at tactical
planning up close, due to the delay. For this, onboard radar is the only way
to go.

Either way, trying this at night makes it even a lot harder.
"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 4 Jun 2007 12:21:35 -0400, "Peter R."
wrote in :

[Story of cluelessly inept pilot narrowly escaping disaster snipped]

Did you happen to note the aircraft's N number?

Someone should relate this incident to the appropriate FSDO office
before the tapes are wiped, so that the pilot can benefit from some
badly needed remedial WX training before his bumbling casts yet more
negative public opinion on GA, and saddens his friends and family.



  #10  
Old June 4th 07, 07:13 PM posted to rec.aviation.piloting
Peter R.
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Posts: 1,045
Default VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather

On 6/4/2007 1:10:07 PM, Jay Honeck wrote:

While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of
thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that
his observations were inaccurate in any way.)


Jay, here is a radar image that was taken about 10 minutes before the pilot
checked on. I have indicated cell movement using red arrows and the pilot's
approximate course using the yellow arrow:

http://i192.photobucket.com/albums/z...un-03-2007.jpg

The cells were closer to Syracuse airport when the exchange took place. As
you can see, this is not a field of pop-corn cells.

--
Peter
 




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