U. of Chicago COVID-19 interactive data visualization tool

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:54:43 AM UTC-5, Craig Reinholt wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 12:05:53 AM UTC-7, Andy Blackburn wrote:
Yup.

Only the mortality data offers reliable trending and it's lagged 2-3 weeks.

I think one of the reasons why we may be seeing the peak in cases a bit later than the initial models predicted is we are seeing a fairly smooth increase in testing availability - adding a bit of a false growth rate. At some point we will be able to test everyone who presents for medical attention - which ought to be a fairly steady proportion of overall cases and so okay as a (still lagged) view of new case trending.

As the testing lag/backlog closes we should have a reasonably decent sense of trending. It won't be until we get broad and randomized testing (antibody tests to look at all infections since the beginning and RNA tests to get rapid identification of current infections for contract tracing and rapid isolation). That we will have any detailed sense of what is really going on - or an ability to contain new outbreaks - which will likely be many.

Life is unlikely to return to normal until sometime in 2021 with (hopefully) a broadly available vaccine. Until then we will all be sitting in a tinder box with a bunch of lit candles and a handful of fly swatters.

Until then we play with Excel spreadsheets and hope.

Andy

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 9:26:47 PM UTC-7, 2G wrote:
Agreed that there is a major limitation on the confirmed cases data, but it is all we have to work with. I expected a quantum jump in this as testing became more available, but that didn't happen, just a very smooth exponential increase. This must be because "confirmed" must include doctor's diagnosis as well as positive test results. On the other hand, deaths are deaths, so you can rely on that data.

Tom

One immediate problem is the accuracy of the current testing. One our club members has CV. Multiple doctors giving him medical care say he had all the symptoms. He was extremely sick in ICU (and feeling better now). However, 2 tests came back negative. After talking to his health care providers about the false negatives, their response was it appears to be at a rate of about 20-25%. As you say, better and broader testing down the road is needed, but the current numbers are "in the books".

Glad to hear he's on the mend. Curious as to what makes them think he had COVID beside symptoms that could arise from other infections? There are indeed both false negatives (potentially more deadly) than false positives, but it isn't the oft-referred to litmus diagnostic test that will add most value, it's the serologic blood test that shows someone had the infection, but is asymptomatic. The swab test is just a snapshot, one timepoint, that indicates current infection (one would have to be tested every few days for the data to be more valuable). IMO

Interesting, with data, Article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...=pocket-newtab

If you have money its much easier to stay home, If your in the lower income brackets your going to work.

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 11:02:15 AM UTC-4, wrote:
On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 9:18:38 AM UTC-5, wrote:
We should about break even this year, pneumonia deaths have fallen to almost zero this winter.

gregg..., Where did you get your information from, or are you just messing with us? What do you think people are dying from during these influenza and SARS-related pandemics? Victims are put on ventilators because of....? Really, give us a few citations to support your claim please. Here's one from me.

https://www.rochesterregional.org/ne...lu-season-2020
Corona virus cures pneumonia. Look people around and think for yourselves.
https://www.barnhardt.biz/2020/04/06...tes-pneumonia/

Corona virus cures pneumonia. Look people around and think for yourselves..
https://www.barnhardt.biz/2020/04/06...tes-pneumonia/

Apples and oranges. Pneumonia on a death certificate is a clinical diagnosis that doesn't specify the pathogen whereas Coronavirus pneumonia gives more specific information - they are still dying from pneumonia and the specific complications thereof associated with Covid-19.

Dude,

People almost certainly are catching fewer communicable diseases of all kinds due to the lockdown (look no further than the Kinsa dataset on seasonally adjusted fever instances) so that's not especially new news. I assume you were just joking when you called it a "cure" for C19.

I can't speak to the source of the pneumonia data. It comes from a blogger who has some pretty bizarre views, including refusing to pay taxes for years (leading to her bankruptcy after getting caught), and a belief that there is some sort of conspiracy to underreport being a "sodomite" as a COVID-19 co-morbidity. Her self-written bio is a sort of Unabomber manifesto of jumbled thoughts. Sort of comical and ominous at the same time.

https://www.barnhardt.biz/about/

Be careful about your reading materials while sheltered at home - it can make you paranoid. :-)

Be safe,

Andy


On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 8:47:45 AM UTC-7, wrote

https://www.rochesterregional.org/ne...lu-season-2020
Corona virus cures pneumonia. Look people around and think for yourselves..
https://www.barnhardt.biz/2020/04/06...tes-pneumonia/

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 7:18:38 AM UTC-7, wrote:
We should about break even this year, pneumonia deaths have fallen to almost zero this winter.

I only recently discovered that 5G cell towers cause corona virus. It was on the internet so it must be true.

The conflation of discovery rate with infection rate has been pandemic in this pandemic, among the media, health, and government officials alike. Only widespread antibody testing will reveal what has happened and is happening.. Beyond immediate care, that should be top priority. Basically we are flying in fog with bad instruments.

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 12:32:08 PM UTC-4, wrote:
Corona virus cures pneumonia. Look people around and think for yourselves.
https://www.barnhardt.biz/2020/04/06...tes-pneumonia/

Apples and oranges. Pneumonia on a death certificate is a clinical diagnosis that doesn't specify the pathogen whereas Coronavirus pneumonia gives more specific information - they are still dying from pneumonia and the specific complications thereof associated with Covid-19.

The baseline pneumonia deaths would still be there if they weren't reclassified as chinkiepox kills.

Here is the guidance we've been given by the CDC on death certificates when reporting COVID-related fatalities.[e.g., "Acute respiratory distress syndrome due to or as a consequence of Pneumonia due to or as a consequence of COVID-19."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

https://health.hawaii.gov/vitalrecor...vid-19-deaths/

We spend too much time correcting misinformation than informing.

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 12:05:53 AM UTC-7, Andy Blackburn wrote:
Yup.

Only the mortality data offers reliable trending and it's lagged 2-3 weeks.

I think one of the reasons why we may be seeing the peak in cases a bit later than the initial models predicted is we are seeing a fairly smooth increase in testing availability - adding a bit of a false growth rate. At some point we will be able to test everyone who presents for medical attention - which ought to be a fairly steady proportion of overall cases and so okay as a (still lagged) view of new case trending.

As the testing lag/backlog closes we should have a reasonably decent sense of trending. It won't be until we get broad and randomized testing (antibody tests to look at all infections since the beginning and RNA tests to get rapid identification of current infections for contract tracing and rapid isolation). That we will have any detailed sense of what is really going on - or an ability to contain new outbreaks - which will likely be many.

Life is unlikely to return to normal until sometime in 2021 with (hopefully) a broadly available vaccine. Until then we will all be sitting in a tinder box with a bunch of lit candles and a handful of fly swatters.

Until then we play with Excel spreadsheets and hope.

Andy

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 9:26:47 PM UTC-7, 2G wrote:
Agreed that there is a major limitation on the confirmed cases data, but it is all we have to work with. I expected a quantum jump in this as testing became more available, but that didn't happen, just a very smooth exponential increase. This must be because "confirmed" must include doctor's diagnosis as well as positive test results. On the other hand, deaths are deaths, so you can rely on that data.

Tom

Actually mortality data is skewed, too. I listened to Dr. Deborah Birx today explain that many deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 when they may be another cause such as ordinary flu. Seasonal flu deaths are way down year-over-year which makes you wonder about this.

Tom

On Tuesday, April 7, 2020 at 5:13:30 AM UTC-7, Tony wrote:
Hope is not a strategy

No, but it is a stress reliever.

Tom