1000km Soaring Weather coming to NV CA SW U.S. - Fri-Sun 06/23-25

Pete,

Mike was simply talking forecaster to forecaster. Mike is universally
recognized as Arizona Soaring Association's weather guru. He regularly
posts his forecasts (Right or wrong) onto the ASA webpage:
http://www.asa-soaring.org/ If you check it out, he was predicting
much the same weather, and was simply joking about the blunder.

-From New Mexico, where the soaring is STILL great,
Echo X-Ray



309 wrote:
So you'd prefer the Specialized Soaring Forecasters like Walt to return
to not sharing their predictions with us?

I for one spent many valuable kitchen passes to show up on the ramp at
Cal City in hopes of flying a 500k in my 1-26. Walt was even gracious
enough to give me cuts in the launch line to try and get airborne just
a little earlier. With more than double my L/D, Kevin Wayt flew 860
km, while I seem to have forgotten how to soar.

Thanks again, Walt...keep the forecasts coming -- it got me to change
my priorities for the weekend and go soar rather than just fly. And
thanks for giving me consideration in the line...I'm all the more sorry
for not capitalizing on it. I still had fun, and despite the fact that
I drove to Lone Pine (vs. Soaring there), the wife & daughter enjoyed
their special weekend.

Here's to the SSF's like Walt & Dan.

So Mike, when was the last time DUATS gave you a three-day headsup on
decent forecast conditions (right, wrong or indifferent)?

-Pete
#309

Mike the Strike wrote:
HA! So much for our forecasts.

"Weather forecasts are like horoscopes with numbers"

Thanks Mitch.

Indeed my comment was directed as much at myself as anyone and was
highlighting the difficulty of soaring forecasts rather than vilifying
individuals. We were all expecting the influx of moisture, typical of
the pre-monsoon conditions, to bring superb conditions.

Here in Arizona, the moisture spread a lot of mid and high level cloud
and pushed much further and quicker than expected. I had my own ship
prepped and ready to go and was disappointed when conditions tanked.

Mike



Mitch wrote:
Pete,

Mike was simply talking forecaster to forecaster. Mike is universally
recognized as Arizona Soaring Association's weather guru. He regularly
posts his forecasts (Right or wrong) onto the ASA webpage:
http://www.asa-soaring.org/ If you check it out, he was predicting
much the same weather, and was simply joking about the blunder.

-From New Mexico, where the soaring is STILL great,
Echo X-Ray



309 wrote:
So you'd prefer the Specialized Soaring Forecasters like Walt to return
to not sharing their predictions with us?

I for one spent many valuable kitchen passes to show up on the ramp at
Cal City in hopes of flying a 500k in my 1-26. Walt was even gracious
enough to give me cuts in the launch line to try and get airborne just
a little earlier. With more than double my L/D, Kevin Wayt flew 860
km, while I seem to have forgotten how to soar.

Thanks again, Walt...keep the forecasts coming -- it got me to change
my priorities for the weekend and go soar rather than just fly. And
thanks for giving me consideration in the line...I'm all the more sorry
for not capitalizing on it. I still had fun, and despite the fact that
I drove to Lone Pine (vs. Soaring there), the wife & daughter enjoyed
their special weekend.

Here's to the SSF's like Walt & Dan.

So Mike, when was the last time DUATS gave you a three-day headsup on
decent forecast conditions (right, wrong or indifferent)?

-Pete
#309

Mike the Strike wrote:
HA! So much for our forecasts.

"Weather forecasts are like horoscopes with numbers"

Mike the Strike wrote:
Thanks Mitch.

Indeed my comment was directed as much at myself as anyone and was
highlighting the difficulty of soaring forecasts rather than vilifying
individuals. We were all expecting the influx of moisture, typical of
the pre-monsoon conditions, to bring superb conditions.

Here in Arizona, the moisture spread a lot of mid and high level cloud
and pushed much further and quicker than expected. I had my own ship
prepped and ready to go and was disappointed when conditions tanked.

Mike



Tell me about it. A couple of weeks back I predicted 750K - 1000K Wx
for the New Jersey crowd. Unfortunately, winds were just a little bit
too westerly for one of the key transition ridges and cloudbase a
little bit too low to get out of the area. 10 degrees shift in winds
and 4 degrees in dewpoint and we had it made! In our sport, we
don't have to miss by much to to go from hero to zero. If it was the
golfing forecast, nobody would have noticed.

In a case of poetic justice, I did head out on that day. Got to spend
nearly 2 hours hanging on in marginal ridge at about 600 AGL. Most
folks felt this was punishment enough and were kind enough not to
comment on the missed forecast.

Erik Mann
LS8-18 (P3)

I don't think it has been mentioned here, but there was at least one
1000km FAI triangle in the forecast area on Saturday. Ramy Yanetz (TG)
flew his LS4 (!) out of Truckee, to a remote start at Carson City,
Cerro Gordo, Eureka, and landed back at Carson City after some 10 hours
of flying...

Marc

My mistake, and my apologies, Mike.

That still doesn't help me explain my inability to fly away from the
field...

Kevin Wayt got out significantly earlier than I did (and is much more
experienced than I am, despite my 19:1 handicap).

It just seemed like the planets came into alignment: you guys
predicting 1000k days made me think I could eek out a 500k (in my 1-26)
with ease, it WAS a weekend day (e.g., didn't have to call in sick or
burn a vacation day or miss a meeting...), I was able to shanghai my
crew, hotels were available (e.g., not a holiday weekend). This
weekend (holiday) the hotels are likely to be booked, part of the crew
has to work on Monday (ergo, I will be Daddy Daycare on Monday) and I
haven't heard a peep from the Ace Specialized Soaring Forecasters about
great WX (pun intended, Walt!). sigh

Like I said, keep up the forecasting, even if you're not batting a
thousand -- it helps get me out of the easy chair and into the 1-26!

Great and safe flying to you all,

-Pete
#309

Mitch wrote:
Pete,

Mike was simply talking forecaster to forecaster. Mike is universally
recognized as Arizona Soaring Association's weather guru. ...
and was simply joking about the blunder.

Marc Ramsey wrote:
I don't think it has been mentioned here, but there was at least one
1000km FAI triangle in the forecast area on Saturday. Ramy Yanetz (TG)
flew his LS4 (!) out of Truckee, to a remote start at Carson City,
Cerro Gordo, Eureka, and landed back at Carson City after some 10 hours
of flying...

Marc

And I should mention that Walt's message was the first thing that got
my attention to start looking seriously at the weather, especially when
ETA was still down, and try to choose the day, as I had only one day
to fly. Thank's for the heads up Walt! Keep them comming.

Ramy
LS4 "TG"

Yeah...looking out of the window at work today (from Huntington Beach),
I saw big, puffy cu's abouve the San Gabriels, hovering a good 3,000
feet above the hilltops...work just seems to get in the way of
soaring...

Saturday, in my abortive attempt, the PDA suddenly went nuts as the
towrope was being drawn taught. If I recall correctly, WinPilot
appeared out of nowhere and stomped on the active (and planned) flight
in SeeYouMobile... To make life just as miserable, Monday afternoon,
trying to help a fellow employee, I installed some company approved
software...and it has since made my work laptop virtually useless.

Fortunately, this malaise has not made it to the home co_m_Putor... uh
oh...d-arn...I alwayssssss knwe that electronnnnnnnnz interrrrrrr-fered
with propppppp-er aeroddddddynamics...

helllllP meeeeee....

Safe landings (with or without electrons...or forecasts),

-Pete
#309

wrote:
Hang in there Pete!!!

I was up all night Friday night in nervous anticipation of a 750k or
1000k attempt. I had the canopy charged, batteries polished etc only to
wake up to a sky full of high cloud. Didn't see a cu all day. Sigh.

WA, WX, keep up those horoscopes, we appreciate them!

~ted/2NO