JFK Jr.'s mean ol wife

Dan,

I agree that the attitude of "I'm a great pilot so nothing bad can
happen to me" is likely to lead to trouble. Bad things can and do
happen while flying, but preflight planning, proper training and good
judgment are needed to deal with them. But are you going even further
and saying that all pilots should believe that they could make a
decision as stupid as the one JFK made? If I honestly believed that I
was so inexperienced and lacked the training to recognize that I was
making such a stupid decision, I wouldn't get in an airplane. And I'd
like to think that nearly all pilots would exercise that level of
sound judgment.

I think there needs to be a distinction between most pilots claiming
they would exercise better judgment than JFK and claiming they are
better than the average pilot. Average pilots do not kill themselves
in plane crashes, i.e., JFK was not average. I think the
rationalization that occurs in these newsgroups is that one would not
make as poor a decision as JFK did, not that ones decision-making
ability is better than the average pilot.

Do you believe that you could, one day, make a stupid decision
resulting in a catastrophic outcome? If so, how do you justify getting
in an airplane and taking that risk? [That comes across as rather
critical/insulting, but I don't mean it that way in the least. I'd
really like to hear your views on this matter. I think this discussion
could yield some very valuable ideas, perhaps even change the way I
view risks.]

Ace

"Dan Luke" wrote:
"Ace Pilot" wrote:
The lack of good judgment in this
accident is what drew the condemnation of the aviation community, in
my opinion.

Uh, that was my point: there was a chorus of pilots howling about what a
stupid decision JFK made, as if they would NEVER do such a thing. One
frequently sees that type of rationalization in these newsgroups. Most
pilots believe that their judgement is vastly superior to that of the
average pilot. Apparently the mathematical absurdity of this idea escapes
them. This enables them to believe that they are safer flying than driving.
That self delusion is what ultimately leads to most "pilot error" accidents,
IMO.

"Ace Pilot" wrote in message
om...

Do you believe that you could, one day, make a stupid decision
resulting in a catastrophic outcome? If so, how do you justify getting
in an airplane and taking that risk?

As the root cause of this crossposted thread, may I butt in?

The answer to the first part of your question is 'of course.' Failure to
acknowledge this simple fact would place myself and others in far greater
danger than my acceptance of my potential to cause merry mayhem in the air
and (eventually) on the ground. Hopefully, genuine fear of ever realising
this nightmare will prevent me from reaching the front pages of your local
newspaper or tv screen.

Once you get used to it, flying is no different from any of life's
challenging activities. As you grow in experience, you grow in confidence.
And, as you grow in confidence... It's no surprise that the danger points
for flying and other similar activities are the 100 hr mark (when you
*think* you're experienced) and the 1000 hr point (when you *are*
experienced).

How do I justify the risks? That's easy. It won't happen to me. If it
does, I'll get away with it :-)


Roger.

In article ,
(Ace Pilot) wrote:

Dan,

I agree that the attitude of "I'm a great pilot so nothing bad can
happen to me" is likely to lead to trouble. Bad things can and do
happen while flying, but preflight planning, proper training and good
judgment are needed to deal with them. But are you going even further
and saying that all pilots should believe that they could make a
decision as stupid as the one JFK made? If I honestly believed that I
was so inexperienced and lacked the training to recognize that I was
making such a stupid decision, I wouldn't get in an airplane. And I'd
like to think that nearly all pilots would exercise that level of
sound judgment.

I think there needs to be a distinction between most pilots claiming
they would exercise better judgment than JFK and claiming they are
better than the average pilot. Average pilots do not kill themselves
in plane crashes, i.e., JFK was not average. I think the
rationalization that occurs in these newsgroups is that one would not
make as poor a decision as JFK did, not that ones decision-making
ability is better than the average pilot.

Do you believe that you could, one day, make a stupid decision
resulting in a catastrophic outcome? If so, how do you justify getting
in an airplane and taking that risk? [That comes across as rather
critical/insulting, but I don't mean it that way in the least. I'd
really like to hear your views on this matter. I think this discussion
could yield some very valuable ideas, perhaps even change the way I
view risks.]

Ace


I think, under the right circomstances, ANY pilot can make some really
STUPID decisions, includinr our friend, " acepilot88."

All it takes, is a series of performance-inhibiting factors: stress,
physical impairment, diminished weather, fatigue, etc.

From wghat I have read about JFK Jr's flight, he had these conditions in
spades!

I regularly fly with ATPs and ex-military pilots, with tens of thousands
of hours -- they put their pants on the same way as I do -- both legs at
a time.

--
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"Ace Pilot" wrote:
But are you going even further
and saying that all pilots should believe that they could make a
decision as stupid as the one JFK made?

I certainly believe that about myself. I am constantly on guard against it.
(BTW, I don't believe JFK's decision was all that monumentally stupid. In my
short 700-hour flying career, I've made some that were just as
questionable - the difference is that I lucked out and he didn't.)

If I honestly believed that I
was so inexperienced and lacked the training to recognize that I was
making such a stupid decision, I wouldn't get in an airplane. And I'd
like to think that nearly all pilots would exercise that level of
sound judgment.

That's where you're leaving the door open for the Devil: you think you're
immune to your own bad decisions.

I think there needs to be a distinction between most pilots claiming
they would exercise better judgment than JFK and claiming they are
better than the average pilot.

That's a distinction without a difference.

Average pilots do not kill themselves
in plane crashes,

Huh?

i.e., JFK was not average. I think the
rationalization that occurs in these newsgroups is that one would not
make as poor a decision as JFK did, not that ones decision-making
ability is better than the average pilot.

Whatever; the illusion of superiority persists.

Do you believe that you could, one day, make a stupid decision
resulting in a catastrophic outcome?

Of course I do. Better pilots than I do it all the time. Remember that 700%
higher fatal rate?

If so, how do you justify getting
in an airplane and taking that risk?

'Most everything in life is a risk/benefit choice.

[That comes across as rather
critical/insulting, but I don't mean it that way in the least. I'd
really like to hear your views on this matter. I think this discussion
could yield some very valuable ideas, perhaps even change the way I
view risks.]

No offense taken. This is usenet, after all! :^)

What I see in other pilots is simple refusal to recognize the *real* risks
in what we do. If they did face it I believe many would stop flying, so
instead they soothe themselves with this "drive to the airport" nonsense.
This warm, fuzzy cloud of rationalization they fly in leads to just the kind
of situation JFK got into. That they can continue to believe such a thing is
a wonderment, but people will believe what they want to, facts be damned.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

(Ace Pilot) wrote in message . com...
I think there needs to be a distinction between most pilots claiming
they would exercise better judgment than JFK and claiming they are
better than the average pilot. Average pilots do not kill themselves
in plane crashes, i.e., JFK was not average.

Well, umm. I mean, really ABOVE average pilots (think airshow and
airline) also kill themselves in plane crashes... some very dumb. It
can and does happen to the best, which might be what you're saying?

I think the rationalization that occurs in these newsgroups is that
one would not make as poor a decision as JFK did, not that ones
decision-making ability is better than the average pilot.

By all accounts, JFK usually hired a CFI on these trips as a safety
pilot. That day, everything went classically wrong: the CFI wasn't
available, the actual weather was worse than reported, his wife
delayed her arrival at the airport by several hours, and they had a
wedding to go to, which meant by that time, travel by air was needed.
(Perhaps he should've hired another pilot.)

But we don't know what actually went wrong. He was getting IFR
training, and I've flown to the islands at night myself, and know that
certainly he should've had no problem keeping upright using his
instruments. But that doesn't count other distractions. Personally,
I figured that one of his passengers decided to crawl up into the
copilot seat for the approach. Perhaps he leaned over to help with
the seatbelt. Perhaps she tilted the yoke. Perhaps his bad foot
meant he leaned on the rudder. Who knows?

The point is, it doesn't necessarily mean he was a bad pilot, or one
outside his depth (frankly, it doesn't seem that way despite what so
many others say). It just means a chain of events lead to an
accident. When such a chain comes out okay by sheer luck, a pilot
writes one of those "I learned about flying from that" articles. When
luck fails, we get a (usually common) type of accident.

Kev