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Put your money where the risk is



 
 
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Old November 9th 19, 07:25 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Bret Hess
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Posts: 121
Default Put your money where the risk is

The discussion "Gliding risk" has been excellent for the most part. To me the most compelling thoughts are about gradually getting conditioned to taking increasing risks ("normalization of deviance"), that experience is a curse as well as a blessing, and that fatalities are just the apex of a pyramid of risk-taking, close calls, incidents and injuries.

The problem is that the risk taking and close calls don't "hurt". Instead we usually get **rewarded** by more points and praise because we fly farther or longer. If we could make the risk taking and close calls "hurt", we would avoid a lot of injuries and fatalities.

There are now apps that help you be disciplined by putting money on the line over whether you meet your standards or not. See https://georgehalachev.com/2017/06/0...-your-success/ for example. When you mess up your money goes to an organization you hate or to the others on the app that didn't mess up. The point is that it just "doesn't matter" if you skip exercising for a day, so we skip it for days on end and then all the days matter to our health long-term. Losing money helps it to matter that day. If you lose $20 for skipping the gym, you lose $20, but you can't afford that very often

Flying risks are very similar. Each risk doesn't appear to matter that day, but we know it can all add up without warning. So maybe we should use technology and the power of "fear of loss" to help us at the bottom of the fatality pyramid: risk taking. Post-flight analysis of igc tracks could pretty accurately detect low thermaling, slow landing patterns, slow flight or turns on ridges or near other terrain, maybe near-collisions. It can detect getting caught in terrain without a safe glide margin through the terrain to an airport or a field.

For the fear of loss, scale is important here. $20 isn't enough. I guess you would want to put in at least one year's soaring expenses, or maybe 1/10 or more the value of your glider. You would lose (on a sliding scale) a small portion or all your money depending on the severity of the risk you took.

So how would we do this? Pilots join a group for a season and put in all the money in advance. They agree to upload *all* their flight tracks or (better) use services that track them real-time on cell phones where coverage exists (e.g Skylines flight tracking). They get a safety analysis of each flight showing the parts of the flight with the most detectable risk. The reports might be public, and we certainly publicize the pilots who are flying safely. And pilots lose money for their riskiest behavior. Maybe the money lost could be less if they self-report the behavior. Some gain a little money at the end of the season. We could set uniform standards, or each person could set their own at the beginning of the season. All this could be very motivating and create a real safety culture.
 




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