A aviation & planes forum. AviationBanter

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Home » AviationBanter forum » rec.aviation newsgroups » Soaring
Site Map Home Register Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

Dr Jack forecast high too low



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old February 19th 17, 02:05 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 133
Default Dr Jack forecast high too low

It seems that for many months Dr Jack's forecast temperature is off by -4° F consistently, sometimes I've see it too low by 7°.

Has anyone else seen this bias?

Tomorrow it is forecast 3.7° lower than the other commercial forecasts
(69.3 vs 73). I've seen this happen in the observed high temperature pretty often, not just the forecast. 4+ degrees is enough to throw off a lift and cloudbase prediction pretty far, and I've missed some good days because of this.

Has anyone else seen this?
I thought if there was widespread issues with this I could provide better feedback to Jack.

I wonder if the many updates to the RUC and NAM models have created some issues with the data or computations.


DrJack (www.drjack.info/BLIP) miniBLIPSPOT
Lat,Lon= 32.79,-84.44 (429,144)
Feb 19 - NAM
---------------------------------------
VALID.TIME 18z 21z VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 24h 27h ForecastPd
---------------------------------------
W* 430 334 W*
Sfc.Heating 217 98 Sfc.Heating
Hcrit 4153 3641 Hcrit
BL Depth 5213 5178 BL Depth
BL Top 5908 5873 BL Top
Hgt.Variab. 753 497 Hgt.Variab.
B/S Ratio 6 6 B/S Ratio
BL Wind 13 10 BL Wind
Direction 327 317 Direction
Wind Shear 19 11 Wind Shear
Max.Converg -5 1 Max.Converg
CUpot 2142 1319 CUpot
CUbase 3766 4554 CUbase
ODpot 957 953 ODpot
ODbase 4951 4920 ODbase
maxRH 88 90 maxRH
CAPE 20 20 CAPE
Temp@2m 67.2 69.3 Temp@2m

 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Cloud Height Forecast [email protected] Instrument Flight Rules 9 March 29th 09 01:05 PM
Translate WX Forecast John T Piloting 34 August 5th 05 02:28 PM
RUC Mixed Boundary forecast m pautz Soaring 2 March 26th 05 02:48 AM
Help, Need Wave forecast Kevin R. Anderson Soaring 2 March 1st 04 06:26 PM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 08:19 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2024 AviationBanter.
The comments are property of their posters.