Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?

Two days ago, while returning from the east coast on a business trip, I
heard an exchange between a plane going to OSH and the controllers in
Michigan. We were at 10,000 in an out of IMC and doing a large deviation to
avoid a line of thunderstorms.

The pilot going to OSH asked for an IFR clearance in the air to go to an
intersection near OSH (?) The controller patiently explained that a
reservation was required to get a clearance into OSH, although the pilot
didn't seem to understand what this meant, and kept asking for a clearance
to some intersection near OSH.

Finally, the controller said it wasn't going to happen, and offered VFR
advisories over the lake (roughly 80 miles). The pilot accepted this, and
proceeded to fly over the lake, between layers of clouds, at 4500 feet in a
single.

I mentally wished him luck.

While getting gas at my home base, the line guy related a story of a couple
in a clapped out ratty home built who wanted to leave at night to fly over
Lake Michigan, VFR. They said they did similar over water trips all the
time, and that they knew how to swim.

About five minutes after departure they returned, with a complete electrical
failure.

Most of the pilots I know would acknowledge that flying over Lake Michigan
in a single is a calculated risk, and would do it high, with lots of gas,
and perhaps with survival gear. Some won't do it at all in a single, since
the survival rate after ditching is very low. Most wouldn't do it at night
or in IMC.

Are there any other stories out there about questionable judgment flying
into OSH?

"Viperdoc" wrote in message
...


Are there any other stories out there about questionable judgment flying
into OSH?

I was flying east over the lake from OSH at 11,500' in a loose formation of
five planes. About half way over, I saw a bright yellow cub flying the other
way at what looked like 1000'.

"Viperdoc" wrote in message


Most of the pilots I know would acknowledge that flying over Lake
Michigan in a single is a calculated risk, and would do it high, with
lots of gas, and perhaps with survival gear. Some won't do it at all
in a single, **since the survival rate after ditching is very low**. Most
wouldn't do it at night or in IMC.

Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats
disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed
much since):

http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm

--
John T
http://sage1solutions.com/blogs/TknoFlyer
http://sage1solutions.com/products
NEW! FlyteBalance v2.0 (W&B); FlyteLog v2.0 (Logbook)
____________________

In article ,
John T wrote:
"Viperdoc" wrote in message


Most of the pilots I know would acknowledge that flying over Lake
Michigan in a single is a calculated risk, and would do it high, with
lots of gas, and perhaps with survival gear. Some won't do it at all
in a single, **since the survival rate after ditching is very low**. Most
wouldn't do it at night or in IMC.

Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats
disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed
much since):

There is surviving the ditching, and surviving the swim in Lake
Michigan. In the context of this discussion, I'd count failing
the second part as a failed ditching.

John
--
John Clear - http://www.clear-prop.org/

"John Clear" wrote in message


There is surviving the ditching, and surviving the swim in Lake
Michigan. In the context of this discussion, I'd count failing
the second part as a failed ditching.

I agree and that would have been reflected in the stats quoted in the link.

--
John T
http://sage1solutions.com/blogs/TknoFlyer
http://sage1solutions.com/products
NEW! FlyteBalance v2.0 (W&B); FlyteLog v2.0 (Logbook)
____________________

"John T" wrote in message
m...
"John Clear" wrote in message


There is surviving the ditching, and surviving the swim in Lake
Michigan. In the context of this discussion, I'd count failing
the second part as a failed ditching.

I agree and that would have been reflected in the stats quoted in the
link.


Did you read just the stats? The author states, "Still, as the overall
record shows, pilots somehow muddle through anyway. This is certainly due in
part to the fact that the majority of ditchings--86 percent, to be
exact--occur in what we call 'coastal and inshore water,' along an ocean
beach, in a sheltered bay not far from land or even a lake, a river, a pond
or a canal. Many of these ditching sites are within sight of land or boats
and the egressing pilots and crew are able to swim to shore or are quickly
picked up by helpful yachtsman." A ditching in the middle of Lake Michigan
would be in the remaining 14 percent.

"John T" wrote in message
m...

Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats
disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed
much since):

http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm


I don't see any statistics there regarding an unplanned 20+ mile swim in
Lake Michigan.

On Sat, 28 Jul 2007 16:34:59 GMT, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote:


"John T" wrote in message
om...

Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats
disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed
much since):

http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm


I don't see any statistics there regarding an unplanned 20+ mile swim in
Lake Michigan.

Not to worry. The water is so cold even a good swimmer would sucumb to
hypothermia well before reaching shore. Going across from Ludington
it's 50 miles so the swim could be 25 miles.

"Roger (K8RI)" wrote in message


I don't see any statistics there regarding an unplanned 20+ mile
swim in Lake Michigan.

Not to worry. The water is so cold even a good swimmer would sucumb to
hypothermia well before reaching shore. Going across from Ludington
it's 50 miles so the swim could be 25 miles.

Both of you are assuming no survival gear. I won't argue the point strongly
since I wouldn't be comfortable down low even with survival gear and one can
argue (safely, I think) that somebody willing to fly across that much water
at 2000 feet may well be willing to do so without any gear at all.

However, my point was simply to take issue with the OP's assertion that
"survival rate after ditching is very low". The stats simply don't back this
up. Sure we can always find exceptional situations that are almost
guaranteed to be fatal, but unless the OP clarifies otherwise, this
statement was nothing more than repeating an OWT. Ditching is quite
survivable.

--
John T
http://sage1solutions.com/blogs/TknoFlyer
http://sage1solutions.com/products
NEW! FlyteBalance v2.0 (W&B); FlyteLog v2.0 (Logbook)
____________________

"John T" wrote in message
m...

Both of you are assuming no survival gear. I won't argue the point
strongly since I wouldn't be comfortable down low even with survival gear
and one can argue (safely, I think) that somebody willing to fly across
that much water at 2000 feet may well be willing to do so without any gear
at all.

However, my point was simply to take issue with the OP's assertion that
"survival rate after ditching is very low". The stats simply don't back
this up. Sure we can always find exceptional situations that are almost
guaranteed to be fatal, but unless the OP clarifies otherwise, this
statement was nothing more than repeating an OWT. Ditching is quite
survivable.


The OP's assertion had nothing to do with the ditching.