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#1
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
File this under "old news":
The number of student pilots in the U.S. peaked in 1968, declined for a while before climbing to its highest (and last) peak in 1979. The highest total number of pilots peaked the next year and has been declining since then: http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html (Since 2002 there have been more CFIs than students.) In 1980 there was 1 pilot for every 274 people. In 2006 there was 1 pilot for every 502 people. (Population of U.S. for 2006 rounded to 300,000,000 and for 1980 taken from he http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra..._United_States ) |
#2
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
In 1980 there was 1 pilot for every 274 people. In 2006 there was 1 pilot for every 502 people. Looks like pilots are almost twice as efficient as they were back in the 20th century :-) |
#3
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
Article about this very thing........ Up, Up and ... Never Mind http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I know. Perhaps it is the growth of our overly risk aversioned culture too. Or the fascination with aviation most of us have had since kids is failing to connect with younger folks today. Less GA airports is not a big help either! On Mon, 18 Jun 2007 18:23:32 -0000, Jim Logajan wrote: File this under "old news": The number of student pilots in the U.S. peaked in 1968, declined for a while before climbing to its highest (and last) peak in 1979. The highest total number of pilots peaked the next year and has been declining since then: http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html (Since 2002 there have been more CFIs than students.) In 1980 there was 1 pilot for every 274 people. In 2006 there was 1 pilot for every 502 people. (Population of U.S. for 2006 rounded to 300,000,000 and for 1980 taken from he http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra..._United_States ) |
#4
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote:
Article about this very thing........ Up, Up and ... Never Mind http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I know. If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. What has changed is as noted risk aversion, but also there's lots more things people want to spend money on (such as more than $1500 year on television, probably $2000 a year on a cell phone plan or two, servicing the car loan and the consequential full insurance cover you need with a loan, people choosing to buy McMansions with the consequent high heating/AC costs etc). So at the end of the day there's less left over for flying. -- Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid. Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de |
#5
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
"Dylan Smith" wrote in message ... On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote: Article about this very thing........ Up, Up and ... Never Mind http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I know. If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. Do you have some stats to support that? (Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory) For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an hour. Today, it's $120 an hour. Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time. A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$. What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs. These, though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs. -- Matt Barrow Performace Homes, LLC. Cheyenne, WY |
#6
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:05:14 +0000 (UTC), Dylan Smith
wrote: On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote: Article about this very thing........ Up, Up and ... Never Mind http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I know. If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. No, I can't agree with that. Back when I was a freshly-minted Air Force 2nd Lieutenant, a brand-new 172 cost about 150% of my annual salary. Now, thirty years later, a brand-new 172 would cost *more* than 150% of my salary... despite decades of career growth and raises that reflect experience, not just cost of living increases. Ron Wanttaja |
#7
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
On 2007-06-19, Matt Barrow wrote:
If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. Do you have some stats to support that? It's difficult to compare exact like for like, but, reposting from an earlier message, comparing club prices of 1970 with club prices of 2007: (on the decline of GA) snip On 2007-05-23, birdog wrote: Why? My opinion, it's the expense. In the '60's and early 70's, our club used to fly an old Champ for $4 an hour and a 172 for $16 an hour, wet. And my reply: $16 hr wet in 1970 dollars is $85 wet in 2006 dollars. The Bay Area Aero Club in Houston, which I used to be a member of, rents its 172 out at $75 hr today. So the price in real terms has actually fallen. snip http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ - an RPI calculator. -- Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid. Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de |
#8
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
Here is an inflation calculator, no idea how accurate it is.......... http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 06:30:01 -0700, "Matt Barrow" wrote: "Dylan Smith" wrote in message ... On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote: Article about this very thing........ Up, Up and ... Never Mind http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I know. If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. Do you have some stats to support that? (Off the top of my head from a sporatic memory) For example, when I learned to fly, in the late 70's, a 172 went $18-20 an hour. Today, it's $120 an hour. Inflation has certainly not been a factor of six in that intervening time. A 1993 Beech F33A went $130-140k - now an A36 goes around a $Million$. What has dropped is avionics and probably overall maint labor costs. These, though, are not enough to offset the acquision and operating costs. |
#9
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
Your probalby right. Priorities and sacrifice. People probably just gotta have all the crap instead. Dreams of flight? what does that mattter when you have to have a hip car, cool flip phone, home enterntainment system, gotta have a computer, gaming system, eat out a lot, see all the movies, etc etc. And none of that challenges you, it is all instantly gratifying. Jeez, I mean even model airplanes can be purchased pre-built these days. I built models of nearly everything that ever flew as a kid. I dont know. Maybe it is indeed too many things now to spend money on instead. the population is growing, yet pilots are not. I mean kids still are drawn to it, I was at an airshow last weekend and this teen was prattling off things he knew about warbirds to his Dad, who seemed to not know. So I think it was all the kids deal to be at the airshow which is great. It still is a special thing no matter what, Ill mention something or people see stuff in my office and I always get that look and question "your a pilot?" and lots of questions, some even I have taken up. But none of those folks have wanted to learn themselves. On Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:05:14 +0000 (UTC), Dylan Smith wrote: On 2007-06-19, Mutts wrote: Article about this very thing........ Up, Up and ... Never Mind http://www.flyingaggies.org/flightli...585&mode=print I now its popular to blame cost for the decline. Yes, it is a factor I know. If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. What has changed is as noted risk aversion, but also there's lots more things people want to spend money on (such as more than $1500 year on television, probably $2000 a year on a cell phone plan or two, servicing the car loan and the consequential full insurance cover you need with a loan, people choosing to buy McMansions with the consequent high heating/AC costs etc). So at the end of the day there's less left over for flying. |
#10
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GA in decline since 1968 .. or .. 1979.
"Dylan Smith" wrote in message ... On 2007-06-19, Matt Barrow wrote: If you correct the costs from the 1960s to today's with inflation, you'll find the cost in real terms hasn't changed. Do you have some stats to support that? It's difficult to compare exact like for like, but, reposting from an earlier message, comparing club prices of 1970 with club prices of 2007: (on the decline of GA) snip On 2007-05-23, birdog wrote: Why? My opinion, it's the expense. In the '60's and early 70's, our club used to fly an old Champ for $4 an hour and a 172 for $16 an hour, wet. And my reply: $16 hr wet in 1970 dollars is $85 wet in 2006 dollars. The Bay Area Aero Club in Houston, which I used to be a member of, rents its 172 out at $75 hr today. So the price in real terms has actually fallen. snip What year is that 172? When I was renting them in the 1979-1981 range, it was maybe a year old model. Try that today. |
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