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#1
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Pilot statistics: SSA vs non-SSA
John Roake, Chairman of the International Gliding Commission's Membership Committee, has stated (see on-line Gliding Magazine at http://www.glidingmagazine.com/Featu...cle.asp?id=400) that based on newly revised FAA statistics the SSA represents less than 50% of sailplane pilots in the USA. So I found it interesting that in a recent poll of BLIPMAP users, of the 430 respondents who listed themselves as a "Sailplane" pilot the percentage who also said they were SSA members was _91%_. Of course any statistic can be biased and knowing how different statistics should be interpreted can be tricky, but still 91% differs greatly from "less than 50%". I expect that BLIPMAP users tend to be more active pilots and also more likely to be XC/contest pilots than the "average" soaring pilot. It's also possible that those BLIPMAP users who took the time to respond are more "group" oriented than those who did not - but with a 30% participation, there would have to be a huge opposing bias in the non-participating pilots to get down to a 50% overall SSA-member level. FWIW, my conclusion is that the number of _active_ soaring pilots who are also SSA members is much greater than 50%, so the pool of non-SSA soaring pilots which might be used to increase SSA membership is not nearly so large as Roake's statement would suggest. A summary of that survey is now available on-line at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/SUR...3.summary.html Jack -- Dr. John W. (Jack) Glendening Meteorologist |
#2
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Jack,
Great job! Another interesting measure of the biases of the sample of respondents is that while only about 5% of soaring pilots fly in contestes, 28% of your respondents do. Al Discus B PG DrJack wrote: John Roake, Chairman of the International Gliding Commission's Membership Committee, has stated (see on-line Gliding Magazine at http://www.glidingmagazine.com/Featu...cle.asp?id=400) that based on newly revised FAA statistics the SSA represents less than 50% of sailplane pilots in the USA. So I found it interesting that in a recent poll of BLIPMAP users, of the 430 respondents who listed themselves as a "Sailplane" pilot the percentage who also said they were SSA members was _91%_. Of course any statistic can be biased and knowing how different statistics should be interpreted can be tricky, but still 91% differs greatly from "less than 50%". I expect that BLIPMAP users tend to be more active pilots and also more likely to be XC/contest pilots than the "average" soaring pilot. It's also possible that those BLIPMAP users who took the time to respond are more "group" oriented than those who did not - but with a 30% participation, there would have to be a huge opposing bias in the non-participating pilots to get down to a 50% overall SSA-member level. FWIW, my conclusion is that the number of _active_ soaring pilots who are also SSA members is much greater than 50%, so the pool of non-SSA soaring pilots which might be used to increase SSA membership is not nearly so large as Roake's statement would suggest. A summary of that survey is now available on-line at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/SUR...3.summary.html Jack |
#3
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Albert Gold wrote:
Jack, Great job! Another interesting measure of the biases of the sample of respondents is that while only about 5% of soaring pilots fly in contestes, 28% of your respondents do. Al Discus B PG How could one possibly succeed in any contest without BLIPMAPS? -- ------------+ Mark Boyd Avenal, California, USA |
#4
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Mark James Boyd wrote:
Albert Gold wrote: Jack, Great job! Another interesting measure of the biases of the sample of respondents is that while only about 5% of soaring pilots fly in contestes, 28% of your respondents do. Al Discus B PG How could one possibly succeed in any contest without BLIPMAPS? This probably reflects the interest of "contest pilots" have in cross-country flying, rather than any great value for the individual pilot flying in a contest. The competition director and his advisors certainly use them when planning the task for the day, but the entrants don't get near value out them that a pilot planning a cross-country flight gets, because they are told when to launch, and mostly where to go. When you have a choice of where to go, it's generally done real-time (you look as you fly!). The entrants might actually look at the the Blipmaps that the Director post, as trends are very important. This can affect the choice of start time. -- ----- change "netto" to "net" to email me directly Eric Greenwell Washington State USA |
#5
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DrJack wrote
So I found it interesting that in a recent poll of BLIPMAP users, of the 430 respondents who listed themselves as a "Sailplane" pilot the percentage who also said they were SSA members was _91%_. I think the main selection bias you are missing is the low participation of power pilots. Less than 30% of the respondents were power rated at all; given my experience with active soaring pilots who are also power rated, I would guess that means that only about 10-20% of the respondents are active in power flying. Further, I think of the soaring pilots not represented by SSA, the majority are primarily power pilots with limited soaring interest. After all, if you're going to get badges, enter constests, or be in a club, you generally have to join SSA. there would have to be a huge opposing bias in the non-participating pilots to get down to a 50% overall SSA-member level. Actually, I think the real selection bias is being a BLIPMAP member in the first place. I never even heard of it until now, and I'm primarily a power pilot and occasional soaring pilot who is not an SSA member. FWIW, my conclusion is that the number of _active_ soaring pilots who are also SSA members is much greater than 50% Almost certainly, especially if by 'active' you mean those who soar most weekends. An active power pilot is going to have other interests (mainly power flying) and is unlikely to soar as much as someone whose only flying is soaring. so the pool of non-SSA soaring pilots which might be used to increase SSA membership is not nearly so large as Roake's statement would suggest. Actually, I suspect that those soaring pilots who are not SSA members are mostly not available to increase SSA membership at all. Someone whose primary interest is flying, and who considers soaring to be just one aspect of it (and not the most important one at that) is much more likely to give his money to AOPA or EAA. My experience is that there are lots of inactive and sporadic soaring pilots out there who are active in other kinds of flying. Some just got the rating with no intent of ever using it (should they be called gliding rather than soaring pilots?) but many others actually have some XC experience, and don't soar much (or at all) because soaring is so inconvenient compared to powered flying. Good luck trying to convince those people that they should send money to SSA. Michael |
#6
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DrJack wrote in message news:404CDBFC.8000700@_D_E_L_E_T_E_T_H_I_S_drjack .info...
John Roake, Chairman of the International Gliding Commission's Membership Committee, has stated (see on-line Gliding Magazine at http://www.glidingmagazine.com/Featu...cle.asp?id=400) that based on newly revised FAA statistics the SSA represents less than 50% of sailplane pilots in the USA. So I found it interesting that in a recent poll of BLIPMAP users, of the 430 respondents who listed themselves as a "Sailplane" pilot the percentage who also said they were SSA members was _91%_. At the bottom of the Roake report it explained where he got his numbers. As I read it, 30,000 is the total number of glider licences or ratings ever granted by the FAA. The vast majority are therefore likely to be inactive (don't fly anymore) or power pilots with glider ratings they don't use. This number is probably a gross overcount. Alas. John Cochrane BB |
#7
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John is correct. We recently checked the FAA database of pilots holding
glider ratings in Arizona and it is much larger than you might imagine. We concluded that most were inactive. Mike "John Cochrane" wrote in message om... DrJack wrote in message news:404CDBFC.8000700@_D_E_L_E_T_E_T_H_I_S_drjack .info... John Roake, Chairman of the International Gliding Commission's Membership Committee, has stated (see on-line Gliding Magazine at http://www.glidingmagazine.com/Featu...cle.asp?id=400) that based on newly revised FAA statistics the SSA represents less than 50% of sailplane pilots in the USA. So I found it interesting that in a recent poll of BLIPMAP users, of the 430 respondents who listed themselves as a "Sailplane" pilot the percentage who also said they were SSA members was _91%_. At the bottom of the Roake report it explained where he got his numbers. As I read it, 30,000 is the total number of glider licences or ratings ever granted by the FAA. The vast majority are therefore likely to be inactive (don't fly anymore) or power pilots with glider ratings they don't use. This number is probably a gross overcount. Alas. John Cochrane BB |
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