PK of Igla vs. airliner?

"Jim Yanik" wrote in message
.. .
) wrote in
om:

FAS shows probability of a fighter kill by SA-18 as somehwere between
30 and 50 percent. Not sure how that was measured. Therefore, I'd
imagine that PK on a liner taking off, is near 1. Most of them have
two engines now. Good luck gaining altitude with one out. But today on
CNN I read it's about 50/50 which sound like BS to me.

Of course that PK is for *one* SAM fired. ISTR that the Kenya attempt used
TWO missiles.

Those heat seakers don't chase high bypass engines very well.

"Leadfoot" wrote:

It's not just the loss of the engine, it's the shredding of vital
componenets all along the rear of the wing that takes the plane down.

If you'd ever had a CLOSE look at all the crap that runs all along the rear
of a wing of a commercial airliner you'd lnow what I'd mean. The aileron
and flaps don't work so good with hydraulic lines shredded.

Indeed, if we're talking about SE climb, we're wincing and
looking at the best possible case. A fuel and hydraulic fire seems a
lot more likely, plus the control failure you note.

Q : are the hydraulic systems isolated left and right ? So
that a hit on one side doesn't cause immediate failure of the other
side ? I'm wondering if still having one working aileron might leave
enough control authority so that another Al Haynes might yet get it
down somewhat intact.

Q : Do any large airliners run these essential systems near
mid wing or toward the front by the spar ?



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"Jim Yanik" skrev i melding
.. .
) wrote in
om:

FAS shows probability of a fighter kill by SA-18 as somehwere between
30 and 50 percent. Not sure how that was measured. Therefore, I'd
imagine that PK on a liner taking off, is near 1. Most of them have
two engines now. Good luck gaining altitude with one out. But today on
CNN I read it's about 50/50 which sound like BS to me.

Of course that PK is for *one* SAM fired. ISTR that the Kenya attempt used
TWO missiles.

Terrorists learn as well,they might do better the next time.The attack in
Kenya was poorly carried out.The next attack will probably against an
aircraft on final approach,and at a closer range.Or imagine the damage a
small group of RPG-armed terrorist could do if they crashed through the
fence at a major airport in a pickup truck,and started blasting away at all
the aircraft in sight.Or a few men armed with 0.50 cal. sniper rifles -
readily available in the US.The possibilities are endless.

"Tarver Engineering" wrote...

Those heat seakers don't chase high bypass engines very well.

Given the conditions of a low-speed, low-altitude, non-maneuvering target, at a
high thrust setting (characteristics of an airliner just after takeoff) and from
the rear quarter, they'll probably do better than you give them credit for...

"John R Weiss" wrote in message
...
"Tarver Engineering" wrote...

Those heat seakers don't chase high bypass engines very well.

Given the conditions of a low-speed, low-altitude, non-maneuvering target,
at a
high thrust setting (characteristics of an airliner just after takeoff)
and from
the rear quarter, they'll probably do better than you give them credit
for...

Here on Earth, sholder fired missiles are proven to be effective agiainst
turbo jets such as older 727s use, but have missed every shot on high bypass
engine vehicles. Think for a moment at the difference in discharge
temperatures for the two different types of engines and I think you will
understand.

Bill Shatzer wrote:
Tarver Engineering wrote:

Countermeasures on airliners looks like a good way to finnish
bankrupting the system.

Yeah, ya' gotta watch out for those Finns.

ISTM that a better use of the money would be to pay the Norwegians
for some of their ground radar equipment - and get it up and running
rather more quickly than the Italians did ...

Tarver Engineering wrote:
Here on Earth, sholder fired missiles are proven to be effective agiainst
turbo jets such as older 727s use, but have missed every shot on high bypass
engine vehicles. Think for a moment at the difference in discharge
temperatures for the two different types of engines and I think you will
understand.

How many shots is that, roughly?

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"Peter Glasø" pgglaso @ broadpark.no wrote in
:


"Jim Yanik" skrev i melding
.. .
) wrote in
om:

FAS shows probability of a fighter kill by SA-18 as somehwere
between 30 and 50 percent. Not sure how that was measured.
Therefore, I'd imagine that PK on a liner taking off, is near 1.
Most of them have two engines now. Good luck gaining altitude with
one out. But today on CNN I read it's about 50/50 which sound like
BS to me.

Of course that PK is for *one* SAM fired. ISTR that the Kenya attempt
used TWO missiles.

Terrorists learn as well,they might do better the next time.The attack
in Kenya was poorly carried out.The next attack will probably against
an aircraft on final approach,and at a closer range.Or imagine the
damage a small group of RPG-armed terrorist could do if they crashed
through the fence at a major airport in a pickup truck,and started
blasting away at all the aircraft in sight.Or a few men armed with
0.50 cal. sniper rifles - readily available in the US.The
possibilities are endless.




There should be anti-vehicle ditches(filled with gators! 8-) ) around every
airport.
Hitting a passenger jet with a .50BMG (single shot or semi-auto,10 round
magazine)will not be easy,and will have little effect,as hitting something
critical is unlikely.Probably go in one side and out the other,very little
damage.


--
Jim Yanik,NRA member
remove null to contact me

Raptor wrote in :

Tarver Engineering wrote:
Here on Earth, sholder fired missiles are proven to be effective
agiainst turbo jets such as older 727s use, but have missed every
shot on high bypass engine vehicles. Think for a moment at the
difference in discharge temperatures for the two different types of
engines and I think you will understand.

How many shots is that, roughly?


I believe the Igla(and Stinger) has a MODERN,high-sensitivity,cooled
seeker,and would track on high-bypass engine exhausts.
They're still pretty hot.

--
Jim Yanik,NRA member
remove null to contact me

"Jim Yanik" wrote in message
.. .
"Peter Glasø" pgglaso @ broadpark.no wrote in
:


"Jim Yanik" skrev i melding
.. .
) wrote in
om:

FAS shows probability of a fighter kill by SA-18 as somehwere
between 30 and 50 percent. Not sure how that was measured.
Therefore, I'd imagine that PK on a liner taking off, is near 1.
Most of them have two engines now. Good luck gaining altitude with
one out. But today on CNN I read it's about 50/50 which sound like
BS to me.

Of course that PK is for *one* SAM fired. ISTR that the Kenya attempt
used TWO missiles.

Terrorists learn as well,they might do better the next time.The attack
in Kenya was poorly carried out.The next attack will probably against
an aircraft on final approach,and at a closer range.Or imagine the
damage a small group of RPG-armed terrorist could do if they crashed
through the fence at a major airport in a pickup truck,and started
blasting away at all the aircraft in sight.Or a few men armed with
0.50 cal. sniper rifles - readily available in the US.The
possibilities are endless.




There should be anti-vehicle ditches(filled with gators! 8-) ) around
every
airport.
Hitting a passenger jet with a .50BMG (single shot or semi-auto,10 round
magazine)will not be easy,and will have little effect,as hitting something
critical is unlikely.Probably go in one side and out the other,very little
damage.

Aim for the cockpit from along the flight path: high probability of
escape if the plane doesn't fall on you and if it does, well, a plane
load of tourist seems worth dyeing for to a lot of jihadist.

You may be right about the antivehical ditch, not so sure about
the gators.