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Gliding risk....



 
 
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  #21  
Old October 31st 19, 05:10 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
jfitch
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


There are many ways of looking at this, risk per hour is one. Another might be risk per year of participation. By the information in the post, my risk of dying in a glider is 2% in the next 1000 hours of participation. If I fly 100 hours in a year which might be a typical average, my chance of dying next year in a glider is 0.2%. The raw death rate in the US for my age group (55-64, also typical of glider pilots) is about 1500/100000 or 1.5% according to the latest CDC data. In other words, I am about 8 times as likely to die of something else, than in a glider.

You are also somewhat in control of that 0.2%. The majority of accidents in gliders are preventable, merely by allowing for more margin of error which will decrease your enjoyment of the sport but little. Nevertheless, sometimes pilots are "swatted out of the sky by the hand of fate", as two of my very good friends were two years ago.
  #22  
Old October 31st 19, 05:21 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Frank Whiteley
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 7:57:36 PM UTC-6, Dave Nadler wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:49:22 PM UTC-4, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....
https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


Interesting stats. Counts of friends I've lost a few different ways:
- driving: 0
- motorcycle: 0
- bicycling: 1
- medical malpractice: 2
- hang-gliding (where I don't know so many): a couple
- general aviation: a few
- gliding: 25

After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...g_May_1987.pdf

Be careful out there,
Best Regards, Dave


I personally quit riding (and racing) motorcycles in 1973 after losing three friends in one summer. The BBC had an interesting series on motorcycle racing, following eight young racers as they entered the sport. IIRC, the final episode had an epilogue that stated all eight were deceased within two years, all due to motorcycle accidents. To my mind, racing motorcycles is far more dangerous than racing gliders.

That said, the number of soaring pilots I've known that have come to grief I could count on one hand for many years. That number has jumped, but that's because I know more pilots than I did formerly. The rate has not shown much variation though. Few were racing, unless you count racing the sun or the clock.

There was an actuarial table published many years ago that listed the chance of accidental death, which was 1/1500 overall. Death in a glider was listed as 1/1800. Haven't been able to find anything similar in recent years.

So, in the years since I've quit riding/racing motorcycles, I've known only one additional fatality on a motorcycle.

Since I've been in SSA leadership and paying attention, far more glider pilots are succumbing to age and infirmities than in flight accidents. It's the company you keep.

You all fly safely and sanely now and please, only fly if you are fit to do so.

Happy landings,

Frank Whiteley
  #23  
Old October 31st 19, 05:39 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathan St. Cloud
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


A GREAT Read on this subject is "Fate is the Hunter". Ernest Gann.
  #24  
Old October 31st 19, 05:43 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Patrick Grady
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Default Gliding risk....

I think it's worth adding that 80% of drivers think they are above average in skill. (https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/01/ame...-driving-cars/)

That same illusory superiority probably applies to gliding. Yet, crashes still happen to these "above average" pilots.
  #25  
Old October 31st 19, 05:57 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Dan Marotta
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Default Gliding risk....

So your chance of dying in a glider is only 0.2% (or 0.02, or 0.002%).Â*
That doesn't mean that it won't happen on the very next flight.Â* It does
not mean that you can make 5,000 more flights and then stop just before
you kill yourself.Â* Statistics...Â* Fly! Enjoy!

On 10/31/2019 10:10 AM, jfitch wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

There are many ways of looking at this, risk per hour is one. Another might be risk per year of participation. By the information in the post, my risk of dying in a glider is 2% in the next 1000 hours of participation. If I fly 100 hours in a year which might be a typical average, my chance of dying next year in a glider is 0.2%. The raw death rate in the US for my age group (55-64, also typical of glider pilots) is about 1500/100000 or 1.5% according to the latest CDC data. In other words, I am about 8 times as likely to die of something else, than in a glider.

You are also somewhat in control of that 0.2%. The majority of accidents in gliders are preventable, merely by allowing for more margin of error which will decrease your enjoyment of the sport but little. Nevertheless, sometimes pilots are "swatted out of the sky by the hand of fate", as two of my very good friends were two years ago.


--
Dan, 5J
  #26  
Old October 31st 19, 05:59 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Posts: 1,439
Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 9:43:15 AM UTC-7, Patrick Grady wrote:
I think it's worth adding that 80% of drivers think they are above average in skill. (https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/01/ame...-driving-cars/)

That same illusory superiority probably applies to gliding. Yet, crashes still happen to these "above average" pilots.


I once showed photos taken while mountain soaring in the Canadian Rockies to a guy who raced motorcycles; his reaction was that glider flying was insanely dangerous (the photos were quite dramatic). I knew otherwise, because at all times I was within safe gliding distance of landable fields. Basically, perception is not reality. The more you fly, the safer you will be (within reason), and these type of articles suggest the opposite.

Tom
  #27  
Old October 31st 19, 10:42 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Ramy[_2_]
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Default Gliding risk....

Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.

Ramy
  #28  
Old November 1st 19, 12:04 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Bruce Hoult
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Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 2:43:02 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote:
Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.


Comparing all of gliding to just recreational/commuting motorcycling seems wrong.

Racing is more dangerous than other forms in both activities. Motorcycle racing is just insanely dangerous. Multiple people who go to the same motorcycle shop as me in Wellington NZ have died in the annual Isle of Man races *alone*. On the other hand my gliding club with 50 to 80 members hasn't had a fatal accident since I joined it in 1985. We've lost several tow pilots doing things other than towing: for example one flying passengers commercially in the Pacific Islands, and one crop dusting in Africa.
  #29  
Old November 1st 19, 12:20 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 7:04:46 PM UTC-4, Bruce Hoult wrote:
On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 2:43:02 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote:
Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.


Comparing all of gliding to just recreational/commuting motorcycling seems wrong.

Racing is more dangerous than other forms in both activities. Motorcycle racing is just insanely dangerous. Multiple people who go to the same motorcycle shop as me in Wellington NZ have died in the annual Isle of Man races *alone*. On the other hand my gliding club with 50 to 80 members hasn't had a fatal accident since I joined it in 1985. We've lost several tow pilots doing things other than towing: for example one flying passengers commercially in the Pacific Islands, and one crop dusting in Africa.


The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle racing.
  #30  
Old November 1st 19, 12:56 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Bob Kuykendall
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Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:20:55 PM UTC-7, wrote:

The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle racing.


Beat me to it. In my experience, racing at a well-equipped track like Sonoma (nee Sears Point) is safer than riding on the street. Everyone is going the same direction, no car is going to try to make a U-turn right in front of you, and all of the obstructions are padded. In the four years I raced at Sears Point, we only had one fatality.
 




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